FOUR YEARS OF WAR IN UKRAINE
AUTHOR: Rear Admiral (RTR) PhD Corneliu BOCAI
Four years have passed since the start of what Putin called a “special operation” to invade Ukraine. The natural question arises: what is the outcome or “balance sheet” of this war, after four years of fighting in all its forms and methods? To get an answer close to reality, we must analyze all the elements that contributed to this war, both for the two sides at war and for the states supporting each side.
Let us first analyze UKRAINE, the country attacked by RUSSIA, which, after four years of heroic resistance, finds itself in the following situation today:
· loss of human lives, military (over 600,000 according to some sources) and innocent civilians, as well as a lot of military equipment;
· loss of almost 20% of its territory, which is under Russian control;
· the destruction of energy infrastructure in large cities, leaving residents without heating or electricity in the middle of winter, destroyed apartment buildings, as well as the headquarters of some civil institutions;
· a war of attrition, which Putin did not want, but which has devastated Ukraine’s economy;
· millions of Ukrainians fleeing to neighboring countries (Poland, Romania) but also to Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, etc. for fear of war and to shelter their families;
· a decline in the standard of living of Ukrainians and their families who remained in the country and were unable to flee;
· It almost succeeded in annihilating Russia’s Black Sea Fleet by taking out (sinking or seriously damaging) the largest and most dangerous Russian warships, as well as some vital targets (the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia across the Kerch Strait).
· repelled Russian troops who attempted to land and occupy Serpents Island, a strategically important location;
· benefited from financial and military support from the US, primarily, but also from some European Union member states, consisting of weapons, ammunition, military equipment and technology, training for Ukrainian troops, humanitarian aid, etc.;
· diversified its defense industry, obviously due to the war, and now produces high-performance drones that have proven particularly useful in destroying a significant percentage of Russian missiles and equipment;
· managed to support its own budget, and implicitly to support the war economy to a certain extent, by exporting grain through the “open” corridor through the Black Sea with Russia’s agreement and supported by Turkey and Romania, which made the facilities of the port of Constanța available;
· Through his appeals, the Ukrainian president managed to raise awareness among the leaders of many countries to condemn Russia’s aggression and rally support for Ukraine in this war.
From Russia’s point of view, the war it started has brought:
· loss of life, mostly military, over a million according to some sources;
· the occupation by conquest of an area representing 20% of Ukraine’s territory, in the eastern region, namely the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions;
· the loss of a quantity of weapons and ammunition (tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles, aircraft, ships…);
· the economy went into a state of war, which led to an exponential increase in the production of drones, missiles, tanks, and ammunition, demonstrating a great capacity for the production of military equipment necessary for war;
· The sinking of the Russian Navy’s flagship in the Black Sea, namely the cruiser “Moscow” and other combat ships, prompting Russia to move its remaining combat ships from the port of Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk;
· Enduring many rounds of economic sanctions from the US and European Union countries, through the reduction of oil and gas imports from Russia by these countries and others;
· Freezing the assets of Russian oligarchs and Russian state reserves in Western banks, making it impossible to withdraw funds that could be used in the war industry;
· reduction in oil and gas exports as a result of sanctions imposed by Western countries, with consequences for financial resources and the redirection of these exports to Asian countries (China, India, North Korea) but at much lower costs;
· Benefited from military support from North Korea (soldiers sent by this country to fight on the front in Ukraine), from Iran through the provision of drones, from China, and from Chechnya (also with soldiers to fight on the front alongside Russian soldiers);
· mobilization of an increasing number of young Russians fit for combat and beyond;
· annihilation of any form of protest from Russian civil society and evasion of conscription by young people or those subject to mobilization, in order to supplement or replace the fighting forces that perished on the front.
For the EUROPEAN UNION, the war consisted of:
· allocating considerable sums from the EU budget to support Ukraine in its defensive war against Russia;
· supplying weapons, ammunition, and training to Ukrainian military personnel;
· increasing military budgets and focusing on increasing the production of weapons and ammunition for the self-defense of EU countries for fear of a Russian invasion;
· providing financial support to EU countries that have taken in Ukrainian refugees, for the accommodation, feeding, and education of their children;
· reducing imports of oil and gas from Russia to a minimum and redirecting imports of these products to countries in the Gulf region or the US (liquefied gas);
· Confronting various protests by civil society in some EU member states over the reduction in the quality of life of their own citizens;
· Involving, without much success, (exclusion of Europeans from discussions on ending the war by the US) some EU member states in the process of stopping the war and ending the peace;
· lack of unity in decision-making regarding financial support for Ukraine in continuing the defensive war (especially from Hungary and Slovakia).
From the US perspective, the war consisted of:
· substantial aid, amounting to billions, granted to Ukraine to defend itself against the Russian invader;
· imposing, from the outset of the war, economic sanctions on Russia in several rounds in cooperation with EU member states;
Involvement in peace talks as a mediator, but excluding EU country representatives from the discussions, even attempting to make concessions to Russia (see Alaska) in order to persuade Russia to stop the war;
· compensated, at a cost (even higher than that of Russia), for the reduction in natural gas imports from Russia by Western countries by supplying them with American liquefied gas;
· The difficulties faced by the American economy led to the transfer of responsibility for supporting Ukraine from the US to EU countries through the provision of financial aid and weapons purchased from the US at a cost.
Despite all the rounds of “negotiations” that have taken place in Turkey, in some Gulf countries, and in Geneva, the results of an agreement to end the war and make peace are still pending, because Ukraine does not accept Russia’s demands and Russia wants to achieve the goal it set at the beginning of the war.
In other words, it is unlikely that Russia will be defeated, as many would like, or that it will agree to give up its objective following an armistice. I believe that the war will end when Putin achieves his objective, not when we or some others want it to. We remain hopeful that the mediator in this war, the US (which still hopes to persuade Putin to negotiate an armistice), or perhaps the EU, will succeed in using their influence to stop the killing of thousands, hundreds of thousands of military personnel and civilians, by continuing this war.