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South Korea is expected to send “monster missile” to Ukraine, Russian bunkers are main targets-The video allows controls and sound playback
MS DAILY BRIEF – DECEMBER 3 th, 2024
Daily appearance Monday-Saturday 10 AM (GMT +2)
Some information is presented when possible from several sources
Coupons
BREAKING: Hezbollah breaks ceasefire; Syrian rebels capture key towns and assets | TBN Israel 1
Ukraine update | Russian advance failed in Kharkiv region | Trump’s plan is illusory. 1
Who controls what territory in Syria?-The Guardian,Tue 3 Dec 2024 07.00 CET.. 2
America must right its mind to defeat China – the National Interest – 1.12.2024. 14
Two destroyers defend US merchant ships from Houthi missiles – The Maritime Executive – 1.12.2024 17
Iran’s oil trade with China rocked by U.S. sanctions on tankers – Bloomberg – 2.12.2024. 21
Protesters block access to Poti port – Reuters – 2.12.2024. 22
V-BAT drones, secretly tested in Ukraine, to be manufactured in India: current project status. 24
Increased aerial surveillance around Kaliningrad – ItalMilRadar – 2.12.2024. 32
Philippines spotted Russian submarine in its waters – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024. 36
Storm Bora hits Greece, there are dead – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024. 37
BREAKING: Hezbollah breaks ceasefire; Syrian rebels capture key towns and assets | TBN Israel
Ukraine update | Russian advance failed in Kharkiv region | Trump’s plan is illusory
Trump in Paris: president-elect to attend Notre Dame reopening-The Guardian,Tue Dec 3 Dec 2024 07.15 07.15 CET
The US president-elect will join 50 heads of state for the reopening of France’s historic cathedral on his first overseas trip since winning the election
Associated Press
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will participate in celebrations celebrating the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris this weekend, his first overseas trip since winning the election.
The historic cathedral will reopen on Saturday after more than five years of rebuilding following a devastating fire that engulfed and nearly destroyed the Paris landmark in 2019. The ceremonies on Saturday and Sunday will be high-security affairs, with around 50 heads of state and government expected to attend.
Trump announced that he would be among them in a post on his social website Truth on Monday night.
“It is an honor to announce that I will be traveling to Paris, France on Saturday to attend the magnificent and historic reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral, which has been fully restored after a devastating fire five years ago,” he wrote. “President Emmanuel Macron has done a wonderful job in ensuring that Notre Dame has been restored to its full glory, and beyond. It will be a very special day for everyone!”
The trip will be Trump’s first overseas since winning the presidential election in November.
A massive fire swept through Notre Dame in 2019, collapsing its spire and threatening to destroy one of the world’s greatest architectural treasures, known for its stained-glass windows.
Trump, who was in office at the time, offered some advice to the French authorities.
“So horrible to witness the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris,” he tweeted.
“Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act fast!”
French officials appeared to respond shortly afterward, noting that “all means” were being used to extinguish the flames, “except for water bombing planes which, if used, could bring down the entire cathedral structure.”
Trump also spoke to Macron and Pope Francis at the time to offer his condolences and said he offered them “the help of our great experts in renovation and construction”.
During Trump’s first term in office, Macron has proven to be one of the world leaders most adept at managing the whims of the US president , who has tried to develop a personal bond based largely on flattery.
Macron was guest of honor at Trump’s first state dinner, and Trump has traveled to France several times. But the relationship has deteriorated as Trump’s tenure has progressed, and Macron has criticized him for questioning the need for NATO and raised questions about America’s commitment to the mutual defense pact.
Macron and other European leaders are now trying to persuade Trump not to abandon America’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s nearly three-year invasion.
At the weekend, Trump announced plans to nominate real estate developer Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law Jared Kushner, as ambassador to France. The elder Kushner was pardoned by Trump in December 2020 after pleading guilty years earlier to tax evasion and illegal campaign donations.
The reopening of Notre Dame will be an elaborate, multi-day celebration starting Saturday.
Paris Archbishop Laurent Ulrich will preside at a reopening Mass that afternoon, knocking on Notre Dame’s closed doors with his staff to reopen them, according to the cathedral’s website.
Macron will attend and address VIP guests. After the Mass, opera singers Pretty Yende, from South Africa, and Julie Fuchs, from France; Chinese pianist Lang Lang; Paris-born cellist Yo-Yo Ma; Benin-born singer Angelique Kidjo; Lebanese singer Hiba Tawaji and others will perform a concert Saturday night, according to the program’s broadcaster, France Télévisions.
On Sunday morning, the archbishop of Paris will lead an inaugural Mass and consecration of the new shrine.
The Île de la Cité, where the cathedral sits in the middle of the Seine River, will be blocked off to tourists during the events. A public viewing area will be set up on the south bank of the Seine with a capacity of 40 000 spectators.
… https://www. theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/donald-trump-paris-trip-notre-dame-reopening
Who controls what territory in Syria?-The Guardian,Tue 3 Dec 2024 07.00 CET
The war erupted in 2011 following the government’s crackdown on peaceful pro-democracy protests and has escalated into a complex conflict
Agence France-Presse
Islamist-led rebels have seized large swathes of territory in Syria, including Aleppo, in a rapid offensive that began last week and reversed years of regime gains in the 13-year conflict.
Here’s who controls what territory in Syria, where the war erupted in 2011 after the government’s crackdown on peaceful pro-democracy protests and has escalated into a complex conflict that has drawn in foreign armies and jihadists.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
The Islamist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by the former Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, dominates the last rebel stronghold in the northwest of the country.
Last Wednesday, the HTS and its allies launched a major offensive, wresting Aleppo, Syria’s second city, and dozens of towns and villages from government control after years of the regime’s gains in successive Russian-backed military campaigns.
Beyond Aleppo, the rebels have also pushed into Hama province in central Syria, with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reporting rebel shelling on Hama.
The group controls much of Idlib province and territory in Aleppo, Hama and Latakia provinces.
The rebels say they are working in a joint operations room with their allies.
Government
Damascus initially lost control of much of Syria to opposition factions, Kurdish fighters and Islamic State (IS) jihadists.
However, the army gradually regained ground with the support of key ally Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah, while Russia’s intervention in September 2015 turned the tide in favor of the government.
Damascus controls most of Syria but lost the city of Aleppo and much of the northwest of the country to the latest rebel offensive. Damascus still controls the south of the country, including Sweida province, where anti-government protests have been regularly taking place for more than a year.
The government also controls the central province of Homs, most of the neighboring province of Hama, all of Tartus and Latakia provinces on the west coast, as well as Damascus and the surrounding province.
Part of northern Aleppo province is still in government hands, as are parts of Raqqa province and about half of the eastern province of Deir ez-Zur.
Government forces are backed by local groups and pro-Iran fighters, including Hezbollah. Iran says it deploys military advisers to Syria only at Damascus’ invitation. Russian troops are stationed in several government-controlled areas, including the Hmeimim air base near the city of Latakia. Moscow says more than 63,000 Russian troops have served in Syria, although the number of troops currently in the country is unclear.
Kurdish fighters
In 2012, government forces withdrew from predominantly Kurdish-populated areas in northern and eastern Syria, paving the way for Kurds to consolidate control.
They set up a semi-autonomous administration and gradually expanded territorial control as US-backed Kurdish fighters battled against IS, ousting the extremists from the last remaining slivers of Syrian territory in 2019.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), formed in 2015, is considered the de facto Kurdish army. The forces are an alliance of fighters including Kurds, Syrian Christians and Arab Muslim factions.
The SDF holds about a quarter of Syrian territory and is considered the second most powerful military force after the army. It controls most of Raqqa province, including the city, a former IS stronghold, half of neighboring Deir ez-Zur province and part of Aleppo province. It also controls Hasakeh province in the northeast, although Syrian government forces are also present there, including in the towns of Hasakeh and Qamishli.
US-led coalition forces, which entered Syria in 2014 to fight IS, have established bases in the Al-Omar oil field, the country’s largest, as well as the Conoco gas field – both in Kurdish-controlled territory. US personnel are also stationed in Kurdish-controlled Hasakeh and Raqqa provinces.
In 2016, they set up an isolated base in the strategic Al-Tanf region of southern Syria, on the border with Jordan and Iraq.
Turkey and allied factions
A few days after the HTS attack, Ankara-backed groups attacked Kurdish-led fighters in the enclave of Tal Rifaat, located between the territory they control and government-held areas.
The Ankara-backed factions, which control territory along the border with Turkey, have captured the strategic town of Tal Rifaat and nearby villages in Aleppo province, the Observatory said.
Since 2016, Turkey has conducted successive ground operations to expel Kurdish forces from parts of Syria’s northern border.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long sought to establish a 30-kilometer-deep “safe zone” along the border.
Pro-Turkish forces control a section of the border from Jarabulus to Afrin in Aleppo province, including major towns such as Al-Bab and Azaz.
Turkey and its Syrian allies also hold a 120km stretch of border territory from Ras al-Ain in Hasakeh province to Tal Abyad in Raqqa.
Islamic State group
IS militants proclaimed a “caliphate” in June 2014 across much of Syria and Iraq, establishing a reign of terror. The group was defeated territorially in Syria in 2019, but its remnants continue to carry out deadly attacks, particularly from desert hideouts.
Its fighters are particularly active in the vast Syrian desert, launching attacks against the SDF and the army.
… https://www. theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/who-controls-what-territory-in-syria
Aleppo’s conquest threatens Moscow’s position in Syria – and the wider region-The Guardian,Tue Dec 3 Dec 2024 07.00 CET
Pjotr Sauer
Islamist militants’ assault on Syria’s second-largest city could tarnish Russia’s reputation as a global player
The walls of Aleppo’s military office were adorned with pictures of the Kremlin, flanked by Russian and Syrian flags hanging side by side. On the desks, documents detailing cooperation between the two nations lay abandoned – telltale signs of the hasty withdrawal of Bashar al-Assad’s forces as rebels closed in on Syria’s second-largest city over the weekend.
The short footage circulating online was recorded in the office of Russian advisers at Aleppo’s military academy after it was seized by rebels in a surprise offensive. It highlights the escalation of the threat to the Assad regime and, by extension, to Moscow’s strategic position in Syria and the wider region.
Aleppo was the scene of fierce and destructive fighting between 2012 and 2016, when the Syrian civil war was at its height. In 2016, a year after Russian forces sided with Assad, the Syrian leader succeeded in recapturing the city, forcing rebels to flee.
Islamist militants in the Saadallah al-Jabiri square after declaring they had reached the heart of Aleppo on November 30. Photo: Mahmoud Hasano/Reuters
At the time, Assad’s capture of Aleppo after months of relentless aerial bombardment was widely celebrated in Moscow, with the country’s elite eager to take credit for the military success.
“There is no doubt that the liberation of Aleppo from radical groups … was done with the direct involvement and even decisive influence of our military personnel,” Vladimir Putin told his defense minister days after Aleppo fell.
But as Assad’s position becomes more vulnerable, Moscow’s initial success in backing him, which earned it the prestige of a trusted ally, now risks being tarnished.
“The rapid fall of Aleppo and the scale of the offensive we have seen is certainly a blow to Russia’s reputation,” said Hanna Notte, an expert on Russian foreign policy at the Berlin-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
Destroyed buildings after a Russian airstrike hit a de-escalation zone in the Syrian city of Idlib on December 26, 2023. Photo: Anadolu/Getty Images
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in 2015 marked the launch of a more assertive foreign policy, with Putin signaling to the West that Russia was reclaiming its place as a dominant player on the global stage.
This was Russia’s first protracted military campaign abroad since its failure in Afghanistan 35 years earlier, and its involvement in Syria reshaped a conflict that had been stalled for years.
At grave cost to the lives of Syrian civilians, Russia’s air power has given Assad and his allies a boost, pushing the US-backed rebels into retreat. That proved a sea change for Assad, a longtime Russian patron, accelerating his efforts to regain control of all Syrian territory.
The intervention has allowed Putin to reclaim the great power status he has sought since coming to power in 2000, securing Russia a seat at the Middle East negotiating table – and leaving him hungry for more.
“The Syrian intervention was important for Russia and its sense of its place on the world stage. It took place under the sign of Russia’s return as a great power, which was constantly emphasized,” said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russian foreign policy in the Middle East.
“It changed not only the dynamics in the Middle East, but also the perception of the Russian elite,” he added.
Syria became a testing ground for Putin’s use of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner paramilitary group, which not only participated in ground operations but also forged business ties with the Syrian elite. This strategy allowed Moscow to minimize its own military involvement and casualties in the conflict.
The same scenario – in which Putin used a range of political, military and economic tools to support local strongmen – was subsequently implemented in nearly a dozen African nations, from Mozambique to Libya.
When Russia turned its attention and military resources to invading Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin sought to preserve the status quo in Syria with minimal effort and investment, Notte said.
“Russia thought the situation could be maintained. This has now been proven wrong,” she added.
While Russia’s military presence in Syria has rarely exceeded 5,000 troops, its failures in Ukraine have forced Moscow to redeploy some of its Syria-based equipment, including a squadron of Su-25 fighter jets and an S-300 long-range missile system.
Also, following Prigozhin’s disappearance in the summer of 2023, up to 2,000 mercenaries with combat experience have been transferred out of Syria, some joining the African Legion, a unit closely linked to Russia’s Defense Ministry.
But Notte said the biggest change for the Syrian leader’s fate came after Oct. 7, 2023, when Israel significantly stepped up its attacks on Assad’s allies in the region, including Iran-backed militants in Syria and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
The rebel offensive late last week came at a time when Iran has been weakened by Israeli air strikes, while its proxy Hezbollah is severely depleted after 13 months of war with Israel and the killing of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
“Russia has had a presence that is adequate to maintain a situation in Syria that doesn’t involve a lot of hot fighting, but it doesn’t have a presence that is necessary to deal with a sudden and massive offensive,” Notte said.
“The post-October 7 environment has been extremely destabilizing and is now causing problems for Moscow,” Notte said.
A Free Syrian Army fighter during clashes with government forces in Aleppo in 2015. The HTS and the Syrian National Army – the rebels formerly known as the Free Syrian Army – have taken Syria’s second city, Aleppo. Photo: Narciso Contreras/AP
Russia’s options going forward are limited, observers say.
The Kremlin has already stepped up its deadly air strikes on a number of cities, including Aleppo and the northwestern city of Idlib, a rebel stronghold. Moscow’s two large military bases, the Khmeimimim air base and the nearby Latakia naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, remain out of harm’s way, although Moscow has had to evacuate the smaller Kuweires air base near Aleppo.
While Russia remains determined to keep Assad in power, the grueling war in Ukraine makes it unlikely to commit troops or resources to rescue him. “Russia will try to limit its support to the current contingent in Syria, as it is clear that few other resources are left,” Smagin said.
Smagin added that all signs suggest the rebel offensive has taken Moscow by surprise. “We have seen that Russia’s initial reactions have been somewhat cautious, which reflects a certain confusion they are experiencing,” he said.
In a sign of Moscow’s displeasure with the developments, Russia earlier this week fired Sergei Kisel, the general in charge of its forces in Syria, according to Russian military blogger Rybar, known for his ties to the Defense Ministry.
Rybar, like other pro-war channels with ties to the government, has expressed anger over the sudden and rapid loss of territory that Russia has helped Russia recapture over the years, with many in Moscow blaming Assad.
Ukrainian solidarity graffiti on the ruins of a building in Idlib, Syria. Russia has turned its attention and military resources toward invading Ukraine in February 2022. Photo credit: Yahya Nemah/EPA
“In modern history, this is perhaps the most shameful chapter in the history of a single country. Loyalists held Afghanistan during the Taliban offensive for much longer,” Rybar wrote, referring to the fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul in 2021, which was welcomed in Moscow at the time. He added that the Syrian leadership has been plagued by “corruption and nepotism.”
Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner mercenary who fought in Syria but has since left the group, said Assad’s fighters have long been dependent on Russian help. “Assad’s people have always been very weak in combat. But Russian air support could restore the situation again,” he said.
However, Assad has survived previous crises, and Notte and others warn that it is too early to assess the long-term damage to Moscow’s position.
“It’s too early to say whether this will lead to permanent damage to Russia’s image, because it will depend on what happens in the coming days and weeks,” she said.
“Leaders in Africa or the Middle East are not yet drawing any firm conclusions. They are waiting to see how things develop before making any decisions.”
… https://www. theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/seizure-of-aleppo-threatens-moscows-foothold-in-syria-and-the-wider-region
Norway’s bold move: F-35 fighter jets and air defense systems are heading to Poland to bolster NATO’s eastern flank-Update Date: 03.12.2024 08:20 | Publication Date: 03.12.2024 08:07
Norwegian F-35 / Photo: forsvaret.no – Morten Hanche
Norway is increasing its role in NATO’s air defense strategy by sending F-35 fighter jets and NASAMS air defense systems to Poland. The mission? To protect the critical airspace over Rzeszow airport, a logistical staging point for NATO operations and support to Ukraine.
The Norwegian defense ministry made the announcement as the alliance continues to strengthen its eastern flank against potential threats.
But not only military equipment is to be sent to Poland. Norway is also deploying around 100 soldiers to support the operation, which is to run from December 2024 to Easter 2025.
The move underlines Norway’s commitment to NATO’s integrated air and missile defense strategy at a time when Poland is playing an increasingly central role in regional security.
“Poland is working tirelessly to ensure that supplies of civil and military equipment reach Ukraine. The airport is also a hub for medical evacuations, an area in which Norway has taken the lead,” said Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram
The deployment highlights how important Rzeszow airport has become, not only for NATO logistics, but also as a symbol of the alliance’s determination to counter evolving threats in Eastern Europe.
While the official announcement by Norway’s Ministry of Defense to send F-35 fighter jets and NASAMS air defense systems to Poland makes it clear that this is part of NATO’s broader air and missile defense strategy, there may be more important and strategic reasons behind this move.
At first glance, it is a direct contribution to the security of NATO’s eastern flank, in particular the airspace over Rzeszow, Poland, a key logistical hub for supplies to Ukraine.
However, seen from a broader geopolitical perspective, the deployment could be part of a more calculated move by Norway to assert its influence in the region, especially as tensions between NATO and Russia remain high.
A key factor to consider is Norway’s position in the Arctic region. Given Russia’s increased military activity in the region, Norway is in a unique position to counter potential threats, especially as Moscow continues to build up its military presence in the North.
By sending the F-35 and NASAMS aircraft to Poland, Norway could signal to Russia that it is not only focused on its northern borders, but that it is also willing to support NATO’s collective defense efforts throughout Europe.
The deployment of state-of-the-art fighter jets in Poland, rather than in Norway itself, could be a subtle message that Norway’s security strategy is closely linked to NATO’s wider objectives and that any Russian aggression in Eastern Europe will be met with a strong response.
The timing of the deployment is also noteworthy. Given the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s continued provocations in the region, the presence of advanced fighter jets such as the F-35 in Poland could be seen as a clear deterrent.
These aircraft are capable of precision air-to-air and air-to-ground operations, making them a formidable asset not only for defensive purposes but also as a force multiplier in a potential conflict scenario.
The NATO alliance needs to project force, and the strategic positioning of the F-35 aircraft in Poland could send a clear message that NATO is prepared to respond quickly to any escalation
.. https://www. defenseromania.ro/miscarea-indrazneata-a-norvegiei-avioanele-de-lupta-f-35-si-sistemele-de-aparare-aeriana-se-indreapta-spre-polonia_631428.html
Ukraine war briefing: NATO invitation highly unlikely at this stage, diplomats say-The Guardian,Tue Dec 3 Dec 2024 02.59 CET
NATO foreign ministers likely to hold last meeting before Trump returns to the presidency; peace talks continue. What we know on day 1.014
Warren Murray with Guardian editors and agencies
NATO is highly unlikely to grant Ukraine’s request to be invited to become a member at Tuesday’s meeting, diplomats told Reuters news agency. “It will take weeks and months to get a consensus,” a senior NATO diplomat said on Monday, according to Reuters. “I don’t see it happening tomorrow, I would be very surprised.” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday for probably the last summit of NATO foreign ministers before Donald Trump takes Joe Biden’s place as president.
In a letter to his NATO counterparts ahead of the meeting, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said an invitation would remove one of Russia’s main arguments for waging war – namely, preventing Ukraine from joining the alliance. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has in recent days begun pressing for the free part of Ukraine to be placed under the “NATO umbrella” to end the fighting, saying he would then seek the return of Russian-occupied territory through diplomatic means.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday that stepping up support for Ukraine was essential to put it in the strongest position for peace talks, recognizing in the clearest terms that there could be a negotiated end to the war. “We must continue to support Ukraine and do whatever is necessary to support its self-defense for as long as it takes … to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations so that they can secure a just and lasting peace on their terms that guarantees their security, their independence – and the right to choose their own future.” Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of Russia’s upper legislative chamber, told a pro-Kremlin newspaper on Monday that she expected Russian-Ukrainian peace talks next year.
On Monday, the US and Ukrainian defense chiefs discussed Russia’s use of new ballistic missiles, preparations for the next meeting of arms donors and plans for military aid from Washington next year, both sides said. The meeting came as the US said it would send Kiev another $725 million in missiles, ammunition, anti-personnel mines and other weapons. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said the meeting also focused on “strategic planning for 2025, especially in terms of supplying weapons, equipment and equipping our units.” Umerov said he and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discussed preparations for an upcoming meeting of the Ramstein Group, an alliance of NATO, the European Union and countries that have backed Kiev.
A Ukrainian military spokesman told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Russia launched at least 60 North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles during the war. “Their accuracy, in principle, is not very high. We understand that the technology with which they were manufactured is outdated,” Andrii Cherniak said, responding to questions about the likelihood of Russia’s use of KN-23 ballistic missiles.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned her Chinese counterpart that Beijing’s support for Moscow would have an impact on relations and instead urged China to help end the war in Ukraine. “The Russian president is not only destroying the European peace order through his war against Ukraine, but now he is pulling Asia into it through North Korea,” she told a news conference. “Therefore, my Chinese counterpart and I have discussed in depth that this cannot be in China’s interest either.”
Officials said Monday that the latest Russian attacks against Ukraine have killed at least four people and wounded about two dozen others in several regions.
Swiss lawmakers voted Monday to significantly restrict access to a special temporary protection status granted to Ukrainians from Russia’s large-scale invasion. The lower house accepted a motion by the far-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) to tighten requirements for Ukrainians seeking special protection in Switzerland by 96 votes to 87, following a similar vote by the upper house earlier this year. A second motion, which was passed by 120 votes to 60, would make it easier to crack down on abuses in the system. Switzerland’s government opposed both motions and said it would not lift the statute until there is lasting stability in Ukraine and that it expects it to remain in place until at least March 2026.
.. https://www. theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/ukraine-war-briefing-nato-invitation-highly-unlikely-at-this-stage-say-diplomats
Russia launches at least 60 North Korean missiles against Kiev, Ukrainian intelligence says – Russia-Ukraine war as it happened-14h17.22 CET
Summary
A Ukrainian military spokesman told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Russia fired at least 60 North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles during the war, which Moscow launched in February 2022. “Their accuracy, in principle, is not very high. We understand that the technology with which they were manufactured is outdated,” Andrii Cherniak, a military intelligence spokesman, said in response to questions about the likelihood of Russia’s use of KN-23 ballistic missiles.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in Kiev for an unannounced visit marking his first trip to Ukraine since the first months of the full-scale war in the summer of 2022. Scholz, who met with Volodymy Zelenskyy during the visit, used the visit to announce additional equipment deliveries worth €650m (£540m) to be delivered this month. The package includes IRIS-T air defense systems, Leopard 1 tanks and armed drones, a defense ministry spokesman said. Zelenskyy wrote on X: “We are deeply grateful to Germany for all the help it has given us. Germany is a European leader in supporting Ukraine, helping us defend ourselves against Russian aggression and terror.”
The US is preparing to send Ukraine $725 million worth of additional military assistance, including anti-drone systems and ammunition for its high-mobility artillery missile system, which could indicate that more long-range missiles are heading to the battlefield, the Associated Press reported.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned her Chinese counterpart that Beijing’s support for Moscow would have an impact on relations and instead urged China to help end the war in Ukraine. “The Russian president is not only destroying the European peace order through his war against Ukraine, but now he is drawing Asia into this war through North Korea,” she told a news conference. “Therefore, my Chinese counterpart and I have discussed in depth that this cannot be in China’s interest either.”
Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of Russia’s upper legislative chamber, said she expected Russian-Ukrainian peace talks next year.
The Kremlin said preparations were being made for a visit by Vladimir Putin to India, but no exact dates were given. The Russian president is likely to visit India in early 2025 at the invitation of his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, Indian broadcaster CNN-News18 previously reported.
Officials said today that Russian attacks against Ukraine have killed at least four people and wounded about two dozen others in several regions.
This blog is now closed. Thanks for following us. You can read all our reporting on Ukraine here.
Updated at 17.25 CET
now 15h16.19 CET
Kremlin says preparations are underway for Putin’s visit to India
The Kremlin said preparations are underway for Vladimir Putin to visit India, but no exact dates were given. The Russian president is likely to visit India in early 2025 at the invitation of his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, Indian broadcaster CNN-News18 previously reported. Modi visited Kyiv in August and Moscow in July in an effort to encourage talks, pointing to Delhi as a potential peacemaker, but since then there have been few developments.
During a visit to Russia in July, Putin hugged the Indian leader at his home in Novo-Ogaryovo, greeted him as his “dear friend” and said he was “very happy” to see him.
Referring to the visit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X that it undermined peace efforts that Modi embraced “the world’s bloodiest criminal” on the same day that so many civilians were killed in Ukraine by Russian air raids.
Russia remains one of India’s most important trading partners, especially in arms and defense. Russia is a vital supplier of low-cost oil and arms to India, but Moscow’s isolation from the West and growing ties with Beijing have hurt its partnership with New Delhi. Read more about the relationship between the two countries here.
Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin embrace during an informal meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow in July 2024. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov/AP
now 16h15.50 CET
Russia has launched at least 60 North Korean missiles against Ukraine – military intelligence
We begin today’s blog with Germany’s foreign minister saying Vladimir Putin is “pulling Asia” into the conflict by deploying thousands of North Korean troops to fight for Russia against Ukraine. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has not denied the deployment of North Korean troops to his country, but also refused to confirm it. According to US intelligence services, at least 10,000 North Korean troops have arrived in Russia, a figure that Ukraine’s military intelligence chief says includes 500 officers and three generals. North Korea has pledged to support Moscow until it achieves a “great victory” in Ukraine, as my colleagues Luke Harding and Alessio Mamo write in this article on Pyongyang’s involvement in the war.
A Ukrainian military spokesman told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today that Russia has fired at least 60 North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles during the war, which Moscow launched in February 2022. “Their accuracy, in principle, is not very high. We understand that the technology with which they were manufactured is outdated,” Andrii Cherniak, a military intelligence spokesman, said in response to questions about the likelihood of Russia’s use of KN-23 ballistic missiles. Along with ammunition and missiles, thousands of North Korean soldiers have been fighting in Russia’s Kursk region to expel Ukrainian forces from there, according to the Kyiv Independent. Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into the Kursk region in August, but has since lost more than 40 percent of the territory it had conquered as Russian forces have mounted waves of counterattacks.
… https://www. theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/02/olaf-scholz-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-war-live-updates?filterKeyEvents=true#filter-toggle-desktop
Exciting moves on the Southern Front: The Russians are reportedly preparing to push up the Dnieper in several directions. Ukraine prepares to counter the plan-Publication date: 02.12.2024 21:00
Russian military, photo source: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
On 02.12.2024, RBC-Ukraine noted that, as in the Zaporozhe region, Russian troops have become more active in the direction of Herson after a long time.
According to the Ukrainian source, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may be preparing an operation to cross the Dnieper River.
There are clear indications of this on the left bank of the Dnieper, where the Russians have prepared pontoon parks and have brought additional forces. Simultaneously, the Russian artillery and air force began to work more actively, eliminating Ukrainian Armed Forces of Ukraine firing points. The scouting groups also stepped up their activities, clearing islands in the Dnieper channel.
“The Russians may soon carry out another operation, aimed at attacking Herson, crossing the Dnieper River, as all the bridges in the direction of this city are destroyed or damaged,” the Ukrainian source says.
For now, Ukrainian intelligence services are silent, although they immediately announced the activation of Russian troops in the direction of Zaporozhe. However, Ukrainian military experts do not rule out the possibility that the Russian army will carry out an operation to cross the Nirp and start an offensive in the Herson region. This will further stretch the defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amid the lack of reserves. RBC-Ukraine claims that the Ukrainian side is prepared for a possible Russian army offensive.
Ukraine gives no chance to the operation and says it is prepared not to be taken by surprise
“The Russians want to do an operation mirroring the one we did in Krynki. But they have no chance to capture Herson again. However, it is important for them to hold on to a street, some houses, to stretch the front line. We are aware of their plans, both in Herson and Zaporozhe, and we are preparing to counter them,” Ukrainian army servicemen told RBC-Ukraine.
Author’s comment: As is known, Russia continues its offensive in different areas along the entire Eastern Front. At the same time, Moscow is preparing to become more active in the south, where relative stability has been maintained for more than a year.
The Kremlin plans to extend its control over the Zaporozhe and Herson regions in the run-up to possible negotiations to end the war. Later, Russian representatives want to demand the entire territory of the two regions, not just the parts they have captured so far.
The approaching inauguration date of the new US President Donald Trump, which could also mean the deadline for the start of peace negotiations in Ukraine, is prompting the Moscow authorities to try to press for progress on the frontline, both in the Kursk region and in the former Ukrainian territories in the east and south of the country, namely in Donbas (Donetsk and Lugansk) and Novorussia (Herson and Zaporozhe).
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Stoltenberg says war will end quickly if Ukraine temporarily cedes Russian-occupied territories-Date published: 02.12.2024 16:25
Photo: Jens Stoltenberg / flickr, Estonian Presidency
A surprising statement was made by former NATO Secretary General and future president of the Munich Security Conference, Jens Stoltenberg, to the Table.Briefings portal.
Stoltenberg said that the temporary ceding of Ukrainian territory to Russia may be an option to achieve a quick end to the war.
“If the cease-fire line means that Russia continues to control all occupied territory, it does not mean that Ukraine has to give up territory forever,” Stoltenberg told Table.Briefings.
He backed Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski’s demand that no territory should be ceded to Russia in the event of a ceasefire, but believes this is unlikely given the current military situation in Ukraine.
“We need a ceasefire line, and of course that line should ideally include all the areas that Russia currently has. But they are not necessarily realistic in the near future,” the former NATO secretary general said.
Guarantees for Ukraine do not automatically mean NATO membership
According to him, it is important that the government in Kiev receives security guarantees in exchange for the temporary occupation of territory.
The guarantees might not just be NATO membership, but “there are other ways to arm and support the Ukrainians”.
In an interview with Sky News on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski indicated that he is willing to end the war in Ukraine in exchange for his country’s NATO membership, even if Russia does not immediately return the occupied territories.
“If we want to end the hot phase of the war, we should bring the area of Ukraine that we control under the protective umbrella of NATO,” Zelenski said. He continued, “This must happen quickly and then Ukraine can diplomatically claim its remaining parts of its territory.”
Zelenski made a similar statement after a meeting with the new head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, and the new president of the European Council, Antonio Costa, both on a symbolic visit of support to Kiev on the first day of their terms.
President Zelenski emphasized that the invitation to join the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) must be extended for the entire territory of Ukraine, but that Article 5 will not be activated for the entire territory of Ukraine during the war. Ukraine will never accept any other formula for joining NATO, Zelenski said.
Article 5 of the NATO treaty stipulates that if an Alliance member state is the victim of an armed attack, all remaining members of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all of them and will take all measures they deem appropriate to assist the attacked Allied state.
Read also: FRG model? “Article 5 will not apply on the entire territory of Ukraine”. Zelenski takes first step towards negotiations and demands NATO guarantees
… https://www. defenseromania.ro/stoltenberg-razboiul-se-va-incheia-rapid-daca-ucraina-va-ceda-temporar-teritoriile-ocupate-de-rusia_631418.html
Situation escalates in Syria (Video): Rebels have taken Assad’s Aleppo residence, and Iran is preparing to intervene in support of the Syrian president-Update date: 02.12.2024 14:00 | Publication date: 02.12.2024 13:58
Syrian rebels. Photo credit: X/Clash Report.
Two Iraqi militias loyal to Iran are considering deploying forces in Syria, believing their potential involvement is vital to protect the “axis of resistance.” A militia spokesman warned that instability in Syria could spill into Iraq, justifying urgent action
Syria’s rebels announced Sunday afternoon that they had seized control of Bashar Assad’s presidential palace in the city of Aleppo, which they occupied over the weekend for the first time since the civil war began.
Assad himself vowed in the afternoon to fight back and said that “terror only understands the language of power, and we will break it”. Syrian army sources say Syrian forces that were expelled from Aleppo over the weekend are now reorganizing and preparing for a counter-attack to regain control of the city.
It is the first time since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 that Bashar al-Assad’s regime has lost control of Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city. The Syrian opposition confirmed the dramatic shift on Sunday afternoon, marking a critical turning point in the conflict.
Syrian rebel forces pushed into Hama province where regime army tanks, artillery and other equipment lie abandoned on the side of roads. The Syrian military rushed in reinforcements Sunday to push back insurgents from advancing into northern Hama.https://t.co/5ogYoBITDM pic.twitter.com/CsqFBFBmLw7x
– Voice of America (@VOANews) December 2, 2024
Reports indicate that the rebels, spearheading a surprise offensive against Assad’s forces, have seized key military facilities located in the city, including the military academy and other military colleges in the south. Meanwhile, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are said to be considering intervening in Syria to bolster Assad’s regime as his control of the region falters.
The rebels’ sudden and coordinated attack began last Wednesday and coincided with the implementation of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a Sunni jihadist grouping that has been largely confined to Idlib province in northwestern Syria – the rebels have advanced rapidly into the neighboring Aleppo region, seizing large chunks of territory. Assad’s forces have been unable to hold their positions, and reports emerged on Saturday that Aleppo was no longer under regime control.
In recent years, Assad’s regime appeared to have stabilized, thanks to support from Russia and Iran, greatly reducing rebel activity.
The Aleppo offensive marks the biggest operation by anti-Assad forces in four years, sparking international concerns, particularly in Israel, that unconventional weapons could fall into the hands of jihadists. More than 300 people, including dozens of civilians, have reportedly been killed in the past five days of intense fighting in northwest Syria.
At midday on Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a London-based opposition monitoring group, confirmed that Aleppo had slipped from Assad’s control. Rami Abdul Rahman, the group’s director, told AFP that rebels now control almost the entire city, apart from a few Kurdish-controlled neighborhoods.
“This is the first time since the start of the war in 2011 that Assad has completely lost control of Aleppo,” he stressed. Rebel sources later said that in addition to capturing the military academy, they also captured a Russian air defense system.
…. https://www.defenseromania.ro/rebelii-au-cucerit-resedinta-lui-assad-din-alep-presedintele-sirian-afirma-terorismul-intelege-doar-puterea-noi-o-vom-distruge_631415.html
America must right its mind to defeat China – the National Interest – 1.12.2024
As the U.S. Navy faces the return of great-power competition, especially with China’s maritime rise, it must overcome decades of post-Cold War neglect and bolster its strategic and operational capabilities.
The War of 1812 is a phenomenon among naval wars. Rarely does a society mistake defeat for victory and codify the losers’ strategy as a textbook for future conflicts. But so it was for the United States for most of the 19th century. The Americans celebrated a series of single-ship battles early in the war, confusing tactical triumphs with strategic and political outcomes. Forgotten was the fact that the enemy, Britain and the Royal Navy, organized an effective blockade as the conflict continued – limiting those US Navy frigates in port and consigning them to tactical and operational irrelevance. American commerce withered. This was not a victory.
In any case, the War of 1812 was a guide not to wage war at sea. Americans raised in the minuteman tradition believed that the best strategy was to improvise a fleet at the outset of the war, put to sea, and defeat the prominent navy of the day. It was safe and economical to neglect the navy in peacetime.
Such non-strategy was tantamount to begging for defeat, but it was nonetheless enshrined in popular folklore. You still hear echoes of boosterism. To this day, tour guides aboard the USS Constitution at the Charlestown Navy Yard inform visitors that the sailing frigate is Boston’s only undefeated sports team. That’s true – but it obscures the fact that a lot of naval battles went unwinnable because the Constitution and other warships couldn’t go to sea and couldn’t get into action at the end of the war.
They were strategically inert, but impressive were the tactical feats of arms.
Eventually, saltwater-minded historians, principally Theodore Roosevelt and Alfred Thayer Mahan, took on the task of setting the record straight and convincing their countrymen that sea power was not a birthright. They wrote histories of the naval war of 1812 to debunk the myths, to instill a less sentimental and more accurate recollection of the war, and to impress upon the popular mind the basic precepts of sea power. Namely, that potential seamen must work at it. They must make the conscious political choice for sea power and reaffirm it again and again, lest the virtuous circle between commerce, diplomacy and the navy collapse. The nation’s seaward quest might falter in the absence of constant and thorough industrial and military labor. In an open society like the United States, only popular determination can stimulate labor of the necessary magnitude and duration.
TR and Mahan decided to replace the prevailing memory of the War of 1812 with a historical narrative designed to spur the nation toward the primacy of salt water in the Western Hemisphere and perhaps beyond.
To see just how strange the legacy of that war was, juxtapose it with the typical pattern after a crushing and unequivocal victory on the high seas. Often, a triumphant glow shrouds a major success at arms, clouding the minds of the victors in the affairs of war. They revel in success while laughing to dismantle the arsenal that made it possible. Government and society are demanding a peace dividend, demanding a reduction in big spending on armaments and military campaigns. In extreme cases, the victors delude themselves into believing that their victory is forever – that history is over rather than falling into a lull before the next round of strategic competition and conflict. The tendency to reduce military readiness is even more pronounced when no new competitor has appeared on the horizon or seems likely to do so. The victors may lay down their arms – leaving themselves ill-prepared for history when it recovers. As it will.
There are dangers in winning too much.
Often, moreover, sensational victories have perverse effects on sailors. Think of the Battle of Trafalgar (1805), where a Royal Navy fleet commanded by Lord Horatio Nelson pasted a combined Franco-Spanish fleet and set the gold standard for decisive sea battles. Trafalgar not only seemed to ratify the British way of naval strategy and warfare, but it eliminated the Royal Navy’s only serious rivals for maritime mastery for most of the century. The Royal Navy was hardly inactive between the Napoleonic Wars and the First World War. But it largely fought against outgunned antagonists.
Without an equal competitor to keep it sharp – iron sharpens iron, as the saying goes – the British naval establishment succumbed to all sorts of bad habits. Control freakism gripped the Admiralty and the officer corps. Fleet commanders began choreographing complicated maneuvers, starting soon after Trafalgar. Writing down the actions of subordinate commanders stultified enterprise and daring. It accused them of the rigors of sea combat, where individual initiative is at a premium. Reckless obedience to orders was a necessity in the Victorian navy. So was immaculate paperwork, spit and polish and other endeavors only loosely related to combat performance. No wonder the Royal Navy’s Grand Fleet performed poorly when called into action in the Battle of Jutland (1916).
What historian Andrew Gordon calls the long and calm of victory is an illusory calm. It swings a navy in contentment. A lee is the downwind side of a land mass or other large object. Its bulk blocks out the elements or, in Gordon’s metaphorical sense, the harsh realities of ocean warfare. But the wind eventually shifts to another compass point. Lee ceases to be a lion. Bad weather resumes to strike the service. The return of history comes as a shock to any institution accustomed to shelter from martial reality. That institution can either regenerate capacity and wean bad habits in a hurry or lose.
Just as history confronted the Royal Navy again in the North Sea then, the rise of a powerful, maritime and dominant China confronts today’s US Navy with its own return to history. If Trafalgar shielded the Royal Navy from pitched battles for decades, the U.S. Navy has long operated in the twin battles of Leyte Bay (1944), whose eightieth anniversary was celebrated last month, and the Cold War victory more than thirty years ago (1991). Generations of naval magnates have succumbed to bad practices similar to those documented by Roosevelt, Mahan, and Gordon.
It is not hard to understand why. The U.S. Pacific Fleet, overseen by Admiral William F. Halsey Jr. and Vice Admiral Thomas C. Kinkaid, crushed the remnants of the Imperial Japanese Navy in Leyte Gulf. The Pacific Fleet sank its chief rival and, in turn, deprived the U.S. Navy of an equal competitor until the rise of the Soviet Navy in the 1960s and 1970s. The victory allowed the US Navy to transform itself into a transoceanic force capable of projecting power on foreign sea coasts – Korea, Vietnam – with impunity. After all, no one had enough coastal armaments to deny the US fleet access to the offshore waters needed to radiate power inland. The lack of an antagonist with comparable strength and combat prowess blurred the doctrine, methods of warfare, and habits of mind necessary to defeat one.
The outcome of the Cold War exacerbated the legacy of Leyte Gulf and was something akin to the aftermath of the War of 1812. The Americans mistook defeat for victory after the War of 1812, but after 1991 they mistook a no contest against the Soviet navy for a triumph of seismic proportions. After all, the American and Soviet fleets never met in action. The Soviet navy left the battlefield without a fight. No one knows who would have prevailed in battle.
Yet Americans and officials responded as if their navy had won a victory in arms comparable to Trafalgar or Leyte Bay. Predictable calls for a peace dividend have been issued before. In 1992, the American sea services proclaimed that naval history was over and that they had commanded major maritime expanses more or less forever. With no adversary of Soviet proportions left to fight, they had dismantled parts of the arsenal needed for anti-ship, anti-air and anti-submarine warfare. They more or less stopped perfecting tactics, techniques, and procedures for fleet-to-fleet confrontations that, after all, would never happen, according to the leaders of the maritime services. Instead, the service turned its attention and energies to projecting power ashore from the offshore safe haven that was the sea.
It’s worth noting – and Theodore Roosevelt and Alfred Thayer Mahan would no doubt agree – that the United States lucked out after the War of 1812. Luck favors fools, drunks and the US. The New Republic got away with misinterpreting the lessons of war because for most of the century it had a silent partner in maritime defense, namely Great Britain and the Royal Navy. Britain had its own reasons for keeping rival European empires away from the Americas and a fleet capable of imposing its will. And that’s exactly what it did. The United States was a lucky beneficiary of British maritime policy and strategy.
But the bastion of the Royal Navy began to crumble towards the end of the century, especially after Imperial Germany decided to build a battleship fleet in the North Sea, aimed directly at the British Isles. The decline of British maritime power left the United States no choice but to fill the void that followed as the Royal Navy withdrew its presence in the western hemisphere. Washington DC had to assume responsibility for US nautical security and put warships to fulfill its policies. But before that could happen, American society and government had to unravel the false lessons of the War of 1812 – removing the cultural and political impediment to maritime power that so upset navalists in the TR and Mahan era. Apathy would no longer suffice. Americans had to take the seaward project seriously – and throw their political weight behind it.
Source: here
Two destroyers defend US merchant ships from Houthi missiles – The Maritime Executive – 1.12.2024
Over Saturday and Sunday, two U.S. Navy destroyers shot down a half-dozen Houthi-launched munitions while escorting U.S.-flagged merchant ships through the Gulf of Aden. The successful transit illustrates the service’s defensive capabilities, but also shows the Houthis’ continued ability to target passing ships at will – despite several rounds of US airstrikes on the group’s bases in Yemen.
According to US Central Command, the destroyers USS Stockdale and USS O’Kane were escorting three US merchant ships through the Gulf of Aden on Saturday when they came under attack. The destroyers shot down three anti-ship ballistic missiles, three attack drones and an anti-ship cruise missile over two days.
“These actions reflect [Central Command] forces’ continued commitment to protect U.S. personnel, regional partners and international shipping against Iranian-backed Houthi attacks,” CENTCOM said in a statement.
Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree identified the targeted vessels as the tanker Stena Impeccable, the Maersk vessel Saratoga and the bulk carrier Liberty Grace. On Monday morning, all three ships were in the port of Djibouti, where the US has a military base.
“The strikes were precise and direct,” Saree said. “[The Houthis] will continue to conduct their military operations at an increasing pace … [and] will stop only by halting the aggression and lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip.”
Source: here
Babcock signs agreements with Hanwha Ocean and KAI to strengthen relations with South Korea – The Maritime Executive – 2.12.202
UK-based Babcock International Group has signed a strategic cooperation agreement (SCA) with South Korean shipbuilding and offshore company Hanwha Ocean, the company announced on November 29, 2024, adding to the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) announced earlier the same day.
The SCA with Hanwha Ocean is designed to further develop opportunities in the global naval market. This agreement outlines a shared goal to deepen cooperation on major global naval procurement projects, including the Polish Orka submarine program and the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, leveraging the strengths of both companies “to provide customized solutions to customers throughout the entire lifecycle of naval platforms, from acquisition to operation,” Babcock said in a press release.
The agreement builds on the existing relationship between Babcock and Hanwha Ocean, which dates back to June 2023, when Babcock Canada signed a technical cooperation agreement to support Canada’s submarine support programs and to cooperate on the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project. In February 2024, the two companies also entered into a teaming agreement to collaborate on global submarine programs.
Babcock’s memorandum of understanding with KAI focuses on exploring military flight training, air base support and engineering opportunities in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. The link between the two companies brings together a combination of military aviation expertise covering production, training and support.
During his visit to South Korea in the last week of November to sign the agreements, Babcock CEO David Lockwood said: ‘We have long-standing relationships and an established presence in South Korea. These agreements will help develop these exciting strategic partnerships, leveraging our respective capabilities to pursue global insights and deliver impactful results for our clients.”
Source: here
Threatened by climate change, Panama Canal has big plans to cope with drought – Reuters – 2.12.2024
The lush valleys of the El Zaino y La Arenosa rivers in western Panama, home to hundreds of families making a living from farming, fishing and cattle ranching, could soon be submerged by a massive man-made reservoir designed to ensure the viability of the Panama Canal in the face of climate change.
Tres Hermanas, with its farms, two schools, churches and a medical clinic, is one of dozens of towns that will disappear in the next six years if the ambitious $1.6 billion Panama Canal project goes ahead. Residents are divided: some don’t want to leave, while others are focused on getting fair compensation if they are forced to move. If they aren’t satisfied, recent history suggests public opposition could jeopardize the entire project.
While the Rio Indio dam project was first proposed two decades ago, more extreme weather over the past decade, including a severe drought last year that has restricted ship traffic on the canal, has given the proposal more urgency.
The canal accounts for 3.1% of the Central American country’s gross domestic product. The waterway, which allows up to 14,000 ships a year to pass through, accounts for 2.5% of global maritime trade and is essential for US imports of automobiles and commercial goods by container ships from Asia and for US exports of goods, including liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“The Rio Indio reservoir project would be the most comprehensive solution (to more frequent droughts) within a 50-year horizon,” said the canal’s deputy administrator, Ilya Espino de Marotta, in an interview with Reuters in October.
The project must go through a lengthy approval process, including a public consultation, cabinet discussions and the final green light from the National Assembly.
Panama’s president, Jose Mulino, has said the talks will be finalized next year, but the shipping industry is watching with some trepidation after delays and suspensions of major projects in recent years, including a controversial mining contract with Canada’s First Quantum Minerals FM. SPRE. After widespread public opposition, the Supreme Court last year declared the contract unconstitutional, and the government ordered the mine closed.
Although the number of people facing the dam’s relocation is relatively small, they are backed by an activist group called Countrymen Coordinators for Life, which was instrumental in blocking First Quantum’s mining contract.
Cesar Petit, a senior economist at BancTrust & Co, an investment bank specializing in emerging markets, said there is a political consensus in Panama behind the dam project, but the government will need to establish a credible plan for compensating people who will be displaced and affected in neighboring areas.
“There are significant risks that the Rio Indio multipurpose reservoir project could be delayed or suspended indefinitely,” Petit told Reuters. “The strategy for communicating the benefits of the plan and an adequate incentive and compensation program for those affected will be key to the successful implementation of this plan.”
Jose Icaza, minister for Canal Affairs, told Reuters that the government understands the “anxiety and concerns” of residents. “Our priority is not to affect the living conditions and tranquility of the basin’s residents and for that reason we will continue to work directly with them to meet their needs as we move forward with the construction project,” he said.
The Panama Canal Authority aims to create a massive dam 840 meters long and 80.5 meters high to provide fresh water for its locks. The reservoir’s 1.25 billion cubic meters of water would allow for up to 15 additional ship transits per day during the dry season and help provide drinking water for Panama’s growing population of 4.5 million.
Unlike the Suez Canal, which has no locks, the Panama Canal relies on fresh water to operate three sets of locks that allow ships to cross between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans through a 50-mile man-made waterway.
If approved, the dam is expected to be completed by 2030 or 2031, but the clock is ticking: last year was the third driest in the waterway’s 110-year history. The second driest was 2015. Forecasters predict that Panama will face more severe droughts and faster water evaporation due to higher temperatures in the future.
A Supreme Court ruling in July restored canal authority to a geographic area that nearly doubles its territory. Now it can be used to expand businesses and secure water sources, including the dam.
According to an initial canal survey, the project would require the relocation of about 2,260 people and would at least partially affect another 2,000 people in the reservoir area.
A census to more precisely count how many people will be affected is expected to be completed in January, Espino said, while some government infrastructure work in Panama, including a bridge that could house heavy equipment, is visible in the Tres Hermanas area.
Panama’s Public Works Ministry said in a statement that the bridge is intended to be used for cars and people to cross the Rio Indio.
“There is already a start,” Espino said, referring to planning related to the technical aspects of the project. “But of course the most complicated part is the process of relocating people. These are conversations that need to be had individually with each family.”
STAY OR GO?
Three lawyers and activists from community groups said the Rio Indio plan would have a “high environmental impact” because of deforestation and loss of biodiversity in areas such as Capira, west of Panama City.
The project, which includes a $400 million budget for its social component, mainly relocations, has divided residents. Some are willing to sell their land and move, while others want to fight the project.
“No farmer wants to live in a slum,” said Dilubino Agraje, who represents Rio Indio communities at Countrymen Coordinator for Life. The organization is pressing for more details about the relocation plans.
“We were born and raised here. If we leave, it’s not because we want to, it’s because we will have to,” said Paulino Alabarca, a 60-year-old Tres Hermanas-born rice farmer in his 60s, as he rode through the city on his horse.
A different plan to transfer water from an existing reservoir fed by the Bayano River, which could be finished sooner and would not require relocating the family, was analyzed and scrapped by the canal administration years ago because of the location and higher costs, Espino said.
From an environmental damage standpoint, the Rio Indio project could have a greater negative impact and few positive benefits that couldn’t be achieved otherwise, said Colorado State University aquatic ecology expert Professor LeRoy Poff, referring to displacement of people and livelihoods, downstream damage to fish and forest.
“There is real importance, as we move forward amid climate change, in maintaining healthy rivers because they have the greatest potential to respond to changing environments,” he added.
The Bayano alternative is gaining ground in many communities, including Tres Hermanas. “There are ways to leave us alone,” Alabarca said, referring to the project.
But it could bring different complications because it would involve negotiations with energy supplier AES Panama, a company jointly owned by the state and U.S. AES Corp AES Corp. N which owns and operates the Bayano hydroelectric infrastructure, according to lawyers studying that project.
AES Panama “is not currently in any process to sell its stake,” it told Reuters in an e-mail. “However, fully understanding the issue and its importance to the country, it is in the best disposition and open to discussions with the state to evaluate and reach fair agreements.”
Canal Minister Icaza said the Rio Indio project is imperative for the canal’s survival and “the most viable option.”
Espino said she believes both projects will be needed in the long term.
“Climate change has really destroyed the natural navigation channels that existed,” she said.
The recurrence of the El Niño weather phenomenon has been accelerating every three years, prolonging Panama’s dry season and depleting much of the water resources in the country with the fifth-highest rainfall in the world.
Its next appearance, expected in 2027, will again be a challenge for the canal as the Rio Indio project is not expected to be ready before 2030, canal chief Ricaurte Vasquez told Reuters.
In preparation for the next drought, the canal has changed its booking model, is asking carriers to consolidate loads and is preparing water recycling measures.
In recent years, housing expansion near the waterway has intensified the canal’s competition with surrounding communities for fresh water, said ecologist Raisa Banfield.
“The canal exists and the canal needs to operate as efficiently as possible,” Banfield said. But, she added, there has to be a balance. “The question is. How much are we going to sacrifice in order to keep passing ships and more ships and bigger ships?”
Source: here
Iran’s oil trade with China rocked by U.S. sanctions on tankers – Bloomberg – 2.12.2024
Dec 2, 2024 (Bloomberg) – A broadening of U.S. sanctions on tankers that haul Iranian crude has jammed a crucial cog of the trade, slowing the delivery of oil from the OPEC producer to its most valuable customer: China
The flow of Iranian crude to China typically has two parts. Sanctioned tankers or those owned by Iran depart from the nation’s oil terminals, and then anchor off a midway-point in Southeast Asia, usually off Malaysia. Here, a ship-to-ship transfer takes place and a different tanker shuttles the oil to China.
However, penalties have swept up a number of vessels that previously carried cargoes to China. That’s forced some operators to shift away from this leg of the trade, reducing the number of available tankers transiting the route, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and people familiar who asked not to be identified as the matter is sensitive.
The outcome has been less Iranian crude at higher prices for China’s independent refiners, which take around 90% of Tehran’s exports. That’s prompted Chinese processors to seek alternative supplies from Africa and other regions in the Middle East, snapping up unsold oil from previous trading cycles.
The fear from operators with sanctioned ships is that the vessel will be turned away by port authorities, leaving them with the dilemma of finding a new home for the cargo, and bear the extra cost. The US widened sanctions to 20 crude-oil tankers on Oct. 11, and added another 12 to the list in the following weeks.
Often, tankers would traverse one part of the leg – Iran to Southeast Asia or Southeast Asia to China – according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. This reduces the time a vessel travels without a cargo.
All but one of the tankers sanctioned on Oct. 11 have been active in Southeast Asian waters this year, with eight focused on transiting the route to China, ship-tracking data show. Some of those vessels are now switching their role in the Iranian crude trade.
The Shanaye Queen is emblematic of the change.
The tanker hadn’t sailed past the west of peninsular Malaysia since August 2023, instead loitering in waters to the east of the country, waiting to take cargoes of Iranian crude from other vessels to haul to China, according to data from Starboard Intelligence Maritime.
In October, the Shanaye Queen was added to US sanctions list, and the following month, started sailing west and is now in the waters near Iran, ship-tracking data show. The tanker was also renamed Marigold in November and now sails under the flag of Guyana, rather than Malaysia, according to maritime database Equasis.
By changing the vessel name and flag it sails under, ship operators are betting that the tactic will avoid scrutiny or raise suspicion at port inspections.
The Dimitria II changed its name to Hong Lu shortly before being sanctioned and previously shuttled between Southeast Asia and China. The ship began moving west of the Malaysian peninsula and turned off its transponder on Oct. 26, known as going dark, to avoid its movements being tracked.
Shanaye Queen’s owner, Shanaye Shipping Pvt Ltd. as listed on Equasis, doesn’t have a listed email address or phone number. Hunan Shipping Inc, the owner of Dimitria II, did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
Source: here
Protesters block access to Poti port – Reuters – 2.12.2024
Georgian anti-government protesters blocked an access road into the country’s main commercial port in the Black Sea city of Poti on Sunday , Georgian news agency Interpress reported.
Footage showed at least one entrance to the port complex blocked by protesters demonstrating against the ruling party’s announcement on Thursday that it was suspending negotiations on European Union membership for four years.
Reuters could not verify the extent to which the port remains accessible.
The port is owned and operated by APM Terminals, a Dutch unit of Danish shipping company Maersk MAERSKb.CO. It is the largest seaport in Georgia, handling 80% of the country’s container traffic, according to the port’s website.
Source: here
Russia replaces military leadership amid failures in Syria
Russia changes commanders amid heavy losses and tactical failure
Amid mounting losses and growing panic among Russian forces in Syria, the Kremlin has dismissed General Sergei Kisel, the commander of its military contingent in the country. The development, reported by the Defense Ministry, underscores the growing challenges facing Russian operations in the region.
General Kisel, previously relieved of his post during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine due to poor military performance, was reassigned to Syria. His tenure there has now ended in similar fashion, highlighting ongoing problems within Russia’s military command structure.
Read more: One of four Russian An-30 ‘Clank’ An-30 reconnaissance planes spotted in Syrian skies
In order to stabilize its position and shore up support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Moscow has appointed General Aleksandr Chaiko as its new commander. Aleksandr Chaiko, who previously led Russian forces in Syria from 2017 to 2019, brings experience in the region. Alongside him, Admiral Aleksandr Moiseyev, commander of the Russian Navy, was spotted at the naval base in Tartus, signaling a broader leadership reshuffle.
The changes come as Russian forces face severe setbacks. After three days of successful offensives by pro-Turkish forces, Russian troops have suffered heavy casualties, with some units now surrounded. Reports indicate that hundreds of Russian personnel are missing in action, compounding the Kremlin’s problems in Syria.
Source: here
China unveils replica of original Shahed-136 drone bought from Israel – Defense Express – 2.12.2024
ASN-301 drone
Beijing unveils modified design of Israeli kamikaze drone
China continues to actively promote its long-range kamikaze long-range drone, the ASN-301 (also known as the JWS-01), in the global defense market. This platform has attracted significant attention due to its similarity to the Shahed-136 UAV. Its most recent unveiling took place at Airshow China 2024, where the event also featured notable exhibits such as the J-35A, the Chinese stealth fighter modeled after the F-35 and a mock-up of the Russian Su-57 fighter, shown abroad for the first time.
A promotional video released during the event highlighted the ASN-301 drone’s ability to neutralize radar systems. Unlike typical kamikaze drones, this system is designed to specialize in suppressing air defenses, equipped with a passive radar-seeking guidance head. This functionality differentiates it from Iranian Shahed drones, which are mainly used to strike pre-identified static targets.
The ASN-301 drone first appeared publicly in 2017 during a military parade marking the 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. Since then, it has been consistently featured in exhibitions, although there are no confirmed export contracts to date.
Despite visual similarities to the Shahed drone, the ASN-301 UAV is derived from Israel Aerospace Industries’ Harpy drone, not Iranian technology. In the 1990s, China legally acquired 100 Harpy UAVs for $55 million, gaining valuable information about their design and operational capabilities. The narrative took a twist in 2004 when China sent the drones to Israel for modernization.
However, the US intervened, pressuring Israel to stop the modernizations and keep the drones. This led to diplomatic tensions, with the US threatening to exclude Israel from the F-35 program. Eventually, the drones were returned to China unmodified, prompting Beijing to reverse-engineer the system. The ASN-301 drone mirrors several features of the Harpy UAV, including its deployable radar-detecting antennas, which can be mistaken for stabilizers.
It is worth noting that the Harpy drone was not an entirely original Israeli development. Its concept is believed to have been inspired by earlier systems such as Germany’s DAR (Die Drohne Antiradar Drohne) and South Africa’s ARD-10 UAVs. Other countries have also based their designs on the Harpy drone. In 2023, Taiwan’s NCSIST unveiled the Chien Hsiang, a system almost identical in appearance and function to the Harpy drone.
Source and photos: here
V-BAT drones, secretly tested in Ukraine, to be manufactured in India: current project status
The V-BAT drones, developed by US company Shield AI, can carry up to 11kg of payload, stay in the air for up to 10 hours and use AI to detect and recognize targets
Earlier this year, the Ukrainian Defense Forces deployed experimental V-BAT drones in combat. Shield AI CEO Brandon Tseng revealed that Ukrainian forces received these drones in June to evaluate their performance against Russian electronic warfare systems.
Recently, Indian company JSW Group announced a joint venture with Shield AI to establish domestic production of V-BAT drones. India plans to invest about $90 million in the project over two years. This funding will cover the construction of a production facility, employee training and related infrastructure. The bulk of the investment, about $65 million, is to be allocated in the first year.
Shield AI emphasizes that V-BAT drones are capable of performing some missions traditionally handled by larger helicopters or UAVs, doing so at a lower cost.
This collaboration aligns with India’s ‘Atmanirbharta’ initiative, which encourages foreign companies to manufacture military equipment locally. According to Breaking Defense, this policy reflects India’s broader push for independence in defense manufacturing.
For example, last year, the US announced plans to set up production of Stryker armored vehicles and Javelin anti-tank missile systems in India. Similarly, the joint venture with Shield AI positions India to meet the needs of its armed forces while serving as a global production center for V-BAT drones.
Source and photos/video: here
India and UK sign agreement to power future Navy ships with electric propulsion – Marine Insight – 2.12.2024
India has signed an agreement with the UK to collaborate on the design and development of electric propulsion systems for future warships.
The agreement, known as the Statement of Intent (SoI), was signed on November 28, 2024, in Portsmouth, UK, during the third meeting of the Joint Working Group on Partnership for Electric Propulsion Capability Partnership.
The agreement was signed by Rajeev Prakash, assistant secretary (naval systems), Ministry of Defense, India, and Rear Admiral Steve McCarthy, director of naval operations and capability integration, Ministry of Defense, UK.
Under the agreement, the two countries will work together on the design, development and production of electric propulsion systems for India’s future naval vessels. The first project under the agreement is the development of Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) to be built at Indian shipyards.
These ships will be among the first in the Indian Navy to have fully electric propulsion systems. This technology is expected to improve efficiency and reduce the environmental impact of naval operations.
The agreement could also pave the way for Rolls-Royce MT-30 gas turbines to be used on Indian warships.
These turbines, already used by the UK’s HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, are known for their power and efficiency and could power India’s future destroyers, frigates and other naval vessels.
The collaboration is also seen as a way to reduce India’s dependence on foreign-made engines. The Indian Navy currently uses propulsion systems from the US, Russia and Ukraine in many of its ships.
Britain’s advanced propulsion technology could soon replace them, giving the Indian Navy more local and cutting-edge solutions.
The agreement comes just days after Catherine West, the UK’s Indo-Pacific minister, visited India, further strengthening defense ties between the two nations.
Source: here
Panama has removed six ships from its register after UK sanctions – Marine Insight – 2.12.2024
Panama has begun de-registering six ships that were recently added to the UK sanctions list.
The decision comes after Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, issued a decree in October ordering the removal of ships that are linked to international sanctions.
Sanctions are restrictions or penalties imposed by one country or group of countries on another country or individuals, often as a way of punishing them for certain actions, such as illegal activities or involvement in conflicts.
The UK has imposed sanctions on these six ships, meaning they are banned from certain operations and Panama must remove them from the register to comply with these international rules.
The six ships were added to the UK’s “sanctioned ships” list on November 25, 2024. Panama, which has the largest register of ships in the world, is now acting immediately to de-register.
This means that ships will no longer be allowed to operate under the Panama flag, which is important because Panama’s ship register is one of the most respected in the world.
Panama passed a law called Executive Decree 512 in October, which gave the Panama Maritime Authority the power to act swiftly. This new rule allows Panama to immediately cancel the registration and licenses of ships linked to sanctions.
Ramón Franco, director general of Panama’s Merchant Navy, says the Panamanian government is responsible for protecting the ship registry and making sure it is not connected to any vessels that could damage its reputation.
He said, “The State must ensure the well-being of the Panamanian registry by keeping it free from international sanctions and protecting the prestige of our flag,” adding that this is one of the government’s main priorities.
This is not the first time Panama has taken such measures. Since the decree was introduced, Panama has already de-registered three other ships and is working on removing eight others.
The UK has recently tightened its sanctions against Russia, particularly on the ships of Russia’s shadow fleet. Russia uses these ships to carry on business and transport gas, oil and other goods, despite international restrictions.
This week, Britain sanctioned 30 more Russian ships, bringing the total to 73 ships under UK sanctions. These ships are crucial to Russia’s economy as they help transport billions of dollars worth of oil and other products.
Panama’s actions show it will not allow its register to be used for the ships, which could hurt its global position.
References: Reuters, MarketScreener
Source: here
India’s bid for AIP-armed submarine enters tricky waters as Navantia mounts 3rd generation AIP submarine on board S-80 class submarine – The EurAsian Times – 2.12.2024
The competition to supply submarines equipped with air independent propulsion (AIP) for the Indian Navy has intensified with the installation of hydrogen-based AIP in an S-80 class submarine. So far, Germany’s Thyssenkrupp, the other shipbuilder in the fray, has claimed to have the only proven AIP system in the competition.
The Indian Navy has completed a field trial for the supply of six submarines under its 75 I (I stands for India) project. These submarines will have AIP technology combined with lithium-ion batteries, allowing them to hide in the ocean depths for longer durations and, when necessary, head towards the target at high speeds without giving up their position.
While the TKMS system has been evaluated on board a German Navy submarine, Navantia’s AIP has been tested using land-based and shipboard systems.
While Navantia’s system has undergone 50,000 hours of testing and was selected by the Spanish Navy, it is considered unproven compared to the TKMS fuel cell-based AIP combined with a lithium-ion battery.
Therefore, the installation of the hydrogen-based Air Independent Propulsion System (AIP) in an S80-class submarine is considered a major milestone that may make the competition for the P-75I even more difficult. This is the first third-generation AIP to be fitted in a submarine.
Calling it an important milestone in the history of Spanish shipbuilding, Navantia has emphasized that it can offer unique capabilities in international submarine construction tenders.
The Spanish AIP system is baptized BEST (Bio-Ethanol Stealth Technology) by Navantia. It is an innovative power generation plant based on a process of reforming bioethanol – a renewable fuel made from organic feedstocks – to produce a hydrogen-rich stream that is fed, along with pure oxygen, to a fuel cell to generate electricity covertly.
Alluding to the German AIP system, Navantia claimed that AIP is a third-generation system that does not require hydrogen stored on board; instead, the system generates it on demand, providing a tactical and safety advantage, increasing strategic autonomy and deterrence capability. “Together with the ship’s extensive sensing, it further enhances the safety of the crew and the submarine itself, minimizing the personnel required to operate it,” the company claimed in a statement.
This development allows Spanish submarines to have more power on board. It allows them to sail underwater for up to three weeks with signatures comparable to pure battery-powered electric sailing.
The Isaac Peral (S80 series) is one of the largest non-nuclear submarines in the world, and the AIP BEST technology will make it even more deadly.
The company allowed the Indian media to visit Section 3 of the submarine S-83 Cosme García, which houses the installed AIP equipment, liquid oxygen and bioethanol tanks and auxiliary systems required for its operation, in compliance with the demanding work and safety procedures carried out in the construction of the submarine.
Navantia is struggling with its submarines 10 years behind schedule. It has zero experience in exports, zero experience in ToT (Transfer of Technology) and has partnered with an Indian shipyard with zero experience in submarine construction. A veteran said to EurAsian Times, “I hope the Indian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Indian Navy don’t shoot themselves in the foot.”
In comparison, TkMS has built over 170 submarines in the last 75 years and has proven models of cooperation through technology transfer (ToT) with numerous customers such as South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Israel and Singapore and two decades of AIP operations on board submarines currently operated by Germany, Greece, Turkey, Israel, Singapore, South Korea, Portugal, Italy, etc. Its submarines are also in the Indian Navy (Shishumar class). Three of them have been indigenously built with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (MDL ) (Shalki class).
The Indian Navy needs AIP submarines from yesterday
The Indian Navy does not have any submarine with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP), a technology that helps conventional submarines to hide below the water surface for a longer period of time. Project-75I was outlined in 1998 as part of a 30-year modernization plan that ends in 2030.
An AIP-based submarine is cheaper than a nuclear-powered submarine. Non-nuclear submarines are also less expensive to maintain and operate. Fuel cell systems are modular and can be replaced quickly and easily, and these submarines have crews of 25-35 people.
The Indian navy urgently needs to modernize its submarine fleet. Its main adversary, China, is making huge strides to modernize its fleet, while cash-strapped Pakistan, despite its struggling economy, has modernized its submarine arm.
As China’s naval presence grows in the Indian Ocean, AIP submarines can monitor them much better without detection.
This technology will be particularly relevant in the eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. In the Arabian Sea and western Indian Ocean, it will enhance our submarine warfare capability against Pakistan.
The Indian Navy’s adoption of AIP technology will put its fleet in a better position than Pakistan’s. All the three French Agosta-90B (PNS Khalid, Saad and Hamza) are powered by AIP. Pakistan is also expected to receive eight 39 A Yuan class AIP submarines under a $5 billion deal with China. It received the first of the eight submarines of this class in April this year.
The Indian Navy is outnumbered by the Chinese Navy 4:1 when it comes to submarines. On March 25, the Indian Navy published stunning photos of a group of submarines off the west coast. The eight submarines operated together in a recently concluded exercise in the Arabian Sea. The Indian Navy is still without the 76 platforms of China’s submarine force, comprising 8 SSBNs (ballistic missile submarines), 13 SSNs (nuclear-powered attack submarines) and 55 SSKs (diesel-electric submarines).
Earlier, former Indian Navy chief Admiral Hari Kumar disclosed that the Indian Navy had simultaneously deployed 11 conventional submarines for operations in different parts of the IOR.
This is the highest number of operational submarines for the Indian Navy in the last two decades. The submarine arm has been facing force depletion, accidents and casualties. Against the required 24 conventional submarines, the Indian submarine fleet has only 16 submarines. Apart from the six newly built submarines, the rest are over 30 years old and nearing their decommissioning date.
By next year, the Indian Navy will have 17 conventional submarines in its fleet. However, the availability ratio of the older Kilo-class submarine is low.
Ritu Sharma has been writing on defense and foreign affairs for nearly 17 years. He holds a master’s degree in conflict studies and peace management from the University of Erfurt, Germany. His areas of interest include Asia-Pacific, South China Sea and aviation history.
Source: here
Another country with nuclear weapons? As Trump renews his ‘love affair’ with Kim, will South Korea go nuclear? – the EurAsian Times – 2.12.2024
Although President-elect Donald Trump remains committed to continuing the Biden administration’s policy of prioritizing peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, of all US allies and friends in the region, the Republic of Korea (ROK) seems the most worried and nervous about its return to power.
And that’s because of Trump’s “love affair,” albeit failed, with communist North Korea, especially Kim Jong Un, during his first term as president.
While not officially confirmed by Trump’s transition team, a Reuters report says that two members of the team revealed that the team is discussing “continuing direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the hope that a new diplomatic push can reduce the risks of armed conflict” on the Korean peninsula.
It can be noted that between 2017-2021, President Trump had three meetings with Kim in Singapore, Hanoi and on the Korean border (the first time a sitting US president has set foot in the country). However, their diplomacy yielded no concrete results, even though Trump described their talks as “in love.”
Trump could not persuade Kim to give up North Korea’s nuclear weapons, even though he was prepared to lift many US sanctions against the communist country.
South Korean strategic elites fear that Seoul could face some critical strategic strategic choices if Trump resumes diplomatic contact with North Korea and recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear state this time.
According to Han Suk-hee, president of Seoul’s Institute for National Security Strategy, an affiliate of the government’s National Intelligence Service, “If the US approves North Korea as a nuclear state in any form, it would be traumatizing for South Korea.”
“For the past 30-40 years, South Korea has cooperated with US-led denuclearization and non-proliferation regimes. If the US approves North Korea as a nuclear state, South Korea will be a victim.”
Han fears that “if that happens, the South Korean people will approve and agree to our own nuclear weapons system.”
In other words, Trump’s second term could reignite the debate over a goal abandoned by South Korea in 1970, when it signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In fact, polls in recent years have found substantial support among South Koreans for nuclear weapons (around 70% in the latest polls). The EurAsian Times has already reported on the existence of a strong school of thought in South Korea that argues that without nuclear weapons, it will become a slave to a nuclear North Korea.
On the other hand, so goes the argument: if the South, like the North, has nuclear weapons, then this would create a balance of power on the Korean peninsula and in the region. By doing so, South Korea will also become a credible middle power with nuclear weapons that can prevent the outbreak of war.
South Korea’s nuclear capability has never been questioned since the time of former President Park Chung-hee, when the Nixon administration was considering reducing the US presence on the peninsula under its Guam Doctrine (1969), which said that from now on, the US would be more willing to provide economic and security assistance to allies than to maintain US troops there.
In fact, in 2004, Seoul disclosed to the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had been trying to enrich uranium until 2000. It carried out chemical enrichment of uranium from 1979 to 1981, separated small amounts of plutonium in 1982, experimented with uranium enrichment in 2000, and manufactured depleted uranium munitions from 1983 to 1987.
South Korea reportedly has enough plutonium to produce 5,000 100-kiloton nuclear warheads. If South Korea decides to stand on its own two feet and pool its resources, it can build nuclear weapons in six months with a billion-dollar investment.
Apparently, the South Koreans’ mood on nuclear weapons invariably depends on North Korea’s behavior and the intensity of American commitment to their security.
In all, unlike other US allies in the region, South Korea faces an ongoing belligerent threat (the war with North Korea has never officially ended). Moreover, in January this year, Kim abandoned 80 years of commitment to unifying the peninsula and declared South Korea an enemy of the North. And what South Korean political elites consider worse, North Korea is expanding a key weapons production complex that assembles a type of short-range missile used by Russia in Ukraine.
Pyongyang has conducted six nuclear tests since 2006 (the last was in 2017, when it claimed it detonated a hydrogen bomb). It has launched about 45 ballistic missiles so far this year. And Kim has reiterated that for him, North Korea’s nuclear program is non-negotiable.
Above all, North Korea’s global position is now said to be much stronger, with close ties to Iran, China and Russia. Pyongyang is now an active participant in the war in Ukraine, sending weapons and deploying more than 11,000 troops to aid Moscow’s war effort. Kim has ratified an updated military alliance between North Korea and Russia, which is said to provide the legal basis for sending troops there (the fight against the Ukrainians in Kursk is justified as defending Russian territory from attack).
In this context, the South Korean people and political elites are worried about the scenario in which Trump will revive his “love affair” with Kim. During his first term, it was believed that Trump’s engagements with Kim had the backing of South Korea’s liberal Moon Jae-in administration (a proponent of unilateral concessions to North Korea for rapprochement between Seoul and Pyongyang). But this time, Trump will have to deal with South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, who believes in increasing his country’s “hard power” against the North.
As things stand today, under the 1953 US-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, Washington provides security assurances to Seoul against a North Korean attack. The 28,500 US troops in South Korea are deployed at bases on the Yellow Sea coast south of Seoul. US army and air force garrisons also have sea access through a South Korean naval base.
In addition, under the Washington Declaration of 2023, which followed President Biden’s meeting with President Yoon to mark the 70th anniversary of the US-Korea alliance, South Korea has been covered again under the US nuclear umbrella. A nuclear advisory group is now seeking to strengthen expanded US-South Korea deterrence, joint military exercises and contingency planning.
In addition, last month (Oct. 4, 2024), the two countries concluded a Special Measures Agreement that is expected to take effect in 2026 (unless Trump cancels it.) Under this Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which will be the 12th in the series, South Korea will increase its financial share to maintain the US troop presence to $1.19 billion annually between 2026 and 2030. This is said to be an 8.3% increase over what it is currently.
In a way, this decision should please Trump, who is a supporter of more defense spending by US allies. During his first term, his demand for more funding for US troops in Japan and South Korea, to the extent of a five-fold increase, has raised tensions.
Korean policymakers are keeping their fingers crossed that, after taking office in January, Trump will either keep the October SMA or push for a renegotiation to further increase Seoul’s share. They would like to convince him of the need to examine the US presence in South Korea in a broader framework.
Among the reasons they cite, three are particularly noteworthy:
First, U.S. troops in South Korea demonstrate the American security commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies. After all, it has deterred North Korea, China, and Russia from starting another all-out war on the Korean peninsula in Asia for more than 70 years, a war in which the United States would almost certainly find itself involved at far greater cost and sacrifice.
Second, Korean policymakers see U.S. forces in South Korea as a critical component of their strategy to isolate China, given that their country offers the U.S. military the closest geographic detachment from mainland China.
In this regard, they further emphasize how the ROK-US alliance is also a unique combined forces command in partnership with nearly 500,000 ROK forces and the US-led 18-member United Nations Command, which is different from its other Indo-Pacific alliances. For them, the alliance is, in a sense, a “comprehensive global strategic alliance”; it amplifies American power in the Indo-Pacific in the process without building new bases and facilities.
Third, the US military presence has also limited debates in South Korea about the nuclear weapons that would surely follow a US troop withdrawal. A nuclear South Korea means the virtual collapse of the NPT and opening the door to proliferation by nuclear-armed states, including Japan. And this will be the biggest setback to America’s long-standing policy of limiting the number of nuclear-armed countries.
Will these arguments convince Trump, given his unpredictability and “beautiful friendship” with Kim Jong Un? This question seems to keep the South Koreans on edge.
Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is the chairman of the editorial board of EurAsian Times and has been commenting on politics, foreign policy and strategic affairs for nearly three decades. He is a former national fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Fellowship.
Source: here
Helsing unveils HX-2, a new AI-powered attack drone immune to electronic jamming – Opex 360 – 2.12.2024
In front of MPs in October, the Chief of the Army Staff [CEMAT], General Pierre Schill, considered it irrelevant to build “stockpiles” of remotely operated drones and/or munitions [MTO] unless one takes the risk of arriving with obsolete aircraft, because technological progress in this field is constant and rapid. thanks in particular to the contribution of artificial intelligence [AI].
More specifically, the German group Helsing, a specialist in this type of technology, has just unveiled the HX-2, a new “intelligent attack drone”.
Equipped with an X-shaped wing, the aircraft is described as a “precision munition”. Electrically powered, it has a range of 100km and can fly at a top speed of 220km/h. Thanks to on-board artificial intelligence, it is completely “resistant” to GPS and communications jamming. Its performance, says Helsing, was “developed and tested” in Ukraine.
Another special feature of the HX-2 is that it can be combined with the Altra “recognize/shoot” system, also developed by Helsing. This allows multiple devices to form an autonomous swarm, controlled by a single operator.
More specifically, Altra is software that allows control of both ISR [intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance] drones and remotely operated munitions such as the HX-2, while also linking them with artillery and command and control [C2] systems.
“Thanks to artificial intelligence, Altra makes it possible to combine large-scale target acquisition with precise and coordinated strikes,” Helsing says.
So, for example, an electronically jam-resistant ISR drone will detect targets and then transmit their position to a ground operator once it has left the area where the signals are being disrupted. When the targets to be hit are confirmed, the targeting information is communicated to one or more HX-2s, whose military payloads can be anti-tank, multi-role or anti-infrastructure. “Electronic warfare threatened to strip operators of their ability to act, and we’re giving it back to them,” Helsing says.
Importantly, the HX-2 has been designed to be produced quickly on a large scale and at a “significantly lower cost than conventional systems”. For the manufacturer, it represents “a complementary offering to existing artillery systems”.
“With the HX-2, we are creating a new class of intelligent end effectors that combine mass, uptime and accuracy. A single HX-2 can reliably engage enemy armor in even the most contested environments. Deployed in large numbers, the HX-2 represents an essential deterrence capability along threatened borders,” summarized Niklas Köhler, one of Helsing’s co-founders.
It will soon be seen whether the sword will be one step ahead of the cuirass, as Germany is to deliver 4,000 HX-2s to Ukraine.
However, as Antoine de Braquilanges, managing director of Helsing France, pointed out, the artificial intelligence of this attack drone needs to be “constantly updated”. He added, according to comments reported by AFP: “It is a living object that needs to be re-trained, certified and then deployed on board the platforms as soon as possible.”
Source: here
Increased aerial surveillance around Kaliningrad – ItalMilRadar – 2.12.2024
This morning we are tracking significant aerial surveillance activity around Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea. The flight paths captured in the image show the coordinated operations of various NATO countries conducting reconnaissance in the region.
Key aircraft involved
1. ARTEMIS bomber (US Army) Operating under registration N488CR, this sophisticated surveillance platform specializes in signals intelligence (SIGINT) and electronic warfare. Its distinctive flight path suggests focused surveillance near the Kaliningrad border.
2. Gulfstream Korpen (Swedish Air Force) Registered as 102003, this aircraft serves as Sweden’s main SIGINT platform. Its operations highlight Sweden’s active participation in monitoring the Baltic region amid rising tensions.
3. Saab 340 AEW&C (Polish Air Force) Poland’s Saab 340AEW&C , registered 3401, is an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. It provides real-time tracking and coordination for military activities, reflecting Poland’s strategic interest in securing its eastern border.
Why Kaliningrad?
Kaliningrad is a strategic military hub for Russia, hosting advanced missile systems, naval bases and radar installations. Its location between NATO members Poland and Lithuania makes it a focal point for intelligence gathering, especially amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.
The purpose of these missions
These surveillance operations aim to:
1. Monitor the military buildup in Kaliningrad.
2. Collect electronicintelligence for analysis of Russian communications and defense systems.
3. Ensure regional security by identifying potential threats to NATO members.
Implications
The constant presence of multi-nation reconnaissance aircraft underlines NATO’s heightened vigilance in the Baltic region. As tensions persist, such operations are likely to continue, serving as both a deterrent and a critical source of intelligence.
Source: here
Defection threatens to starve Ukrainian forces at a crucial moment – By Samya Kullab, The Associated Press and Volodymyr Yurchuk – 11/29/2024
The defection starves the Ukrainian military of desperately needed manpower and paralyzes its combat plans at a crucial moment in the war with Russia, which could put Kiev at a distinct disadvantage in future cease-fire negotiations.
Faced with every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, tired and deprived, have left frontline and combat positions to slip into anonymity, according to Ukrainian soldiers, lawyers and officials. Whole units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.
Some are taking sick leave and never returning, haunted by the trauma of war and demoralized by bleak prospects of victory. Others clash with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the middle of firefights.
“This problem is critical,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Kiev-based military analyst. “This is the third year of war and this problem will grow.”
Though Moscow has also faced defections, the Ukrainians who have left have exposed deep-rooted problems plaguing their military and Kiev’s handling of the war, from faulty mobilization to overstretched and depleted front-line units. It comes as the US urges Ukraine to recruit more troops and allow conscription of those under 18.
The Associated Press spoke with two defectors, three lawyers and a dozen Ukrainian officials and military commanders. The officials and commanders spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose classified information, while one defector did so because he feared prosecution.
“It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said an officer from the 72nd Brigade, who noted that desertion was one of the main reasons Ukraine lost the city of Vuhledar in October.
Troops leaving
More than 100,000 troops have been charged under Ukraine’s desertion laws since the invasion of Russia in February 2022, according to the country’s Prosecutor General’s Office.
Nearly half have left in the past year after Kiev launched an aggressive and controversial mobilization campaign that government officials and military commanders admit has largely failed.
That’s a staggeringly large number by any measure, as there were about 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers engaged in combat before the mobilization campaign began. And the actual number of deserters could be much higher. One MP with knowledge of military matters estimated it could be as high as 200,000.
Many deserters do not return after being granted sick leave. Tired of the constant war, they are psychologically and emotionally scarred. They feel guilt that they can’t muster the will to fight, anger at the way the war effort is being conducted, and frustration that it seems unwinnable.
“Keeping silent about a huge problem only harms our country,” said Serzhii Hnezdilov, one of the few soldiers to speak publicly about his choice to defect He was charged shortly after the AP interviewed him in September.
Another defector said he initially left his infantry unit with permission because he needed surgery. When his leave ended, he couldn’t decide to return.
He still has nightmares about the comrades he saw killed.
“The best way to explain it is to imagine that you are standing under close fire and from their (Russian) side, there are 50 shells coming at you, while from our side, there is only one. Then you see your friends being torn to pieces and you realize that any second it could happen to you,” he said.
“Meanwhile, the guys (Ukrainian soldiers) from 10 kilometers away are ordering you on the radio: ‘Carry on, get ready. Everything will be fine,'” he said.
Hnezdilov also left to seek medical help. Before undergoing surgery, he announced he was defecting. He said that after five years of military service, he sees no hope of ever being demobilized, despite earlier promises by the country’s leadership.
“If there is no final term (of military service), it turns into a prison – it becomes psychologically hard to find reasons to defend this country,” Hnezdilov said.
A growing problem for Kiev
Desertion has turned battle plans into sand that trickles through military commanders.
AP has learned of cases in which defensive lines were severely compromised because entire units defied orders and abandoned their positions.
“Due to the lack of political will and poor troop management, especially in the infantry, we are definitely not moving in a direction to properly defend the territories we now control,” Hnezdilov said.
The Ukrainian army saw a shortage of 4,000 soldiers on the front line in September, largely due to deaths, injuries and desertions, according to a parliamentarian. Most deserters were among recent recruits.
The head of a brigade’s legal service, which is in charge of processing desertion cases and forwarding them to law enforcement, said he has had many of them.
“The main thing is that they leave combat positions during hostilities and their comrades die because of it. We had several situations where units fled, small or big. They exposed their flanks, and the enemy came to these flanks and killed their brothers in arms, because those who were in positions didn’t know that there was no one else around,” the official said.
That was how Vuhledar, a town that Ukraine had defended for two years, was lost in October, said the 72 Brigade officer, who was among the last to withdraw.
The 72nd Regiment was already stretched thin in the weeks before Vuhledar fell. Only a line battalion and two rifle battalions held the town near the end, and military leaders even began withdrawing units from them to support the flanks, the officer said.
There were supposed to be 120 men in each of the battalion’s companies, but the ranks of some companies dwindled to just 10 because of deaths, injuries and desertions, he said. About 20 percent of the missing soldiers from those companies have left.
“The percentage has increased exponentially every month,” he added.
The reinforcements were sent once Russia realized Ukraine’s weakened position and attacked. But then the reinforcements left, the officer said. Because of that, when one of the 72nd Brigade’s battalions retreated, its members were shot because they didn’t know no one was covering them, he said.
Still, the officer harbors no ill will toward the deserters.
“At this stage, I do not blame any of the soldiers in my battalion and others. … Because everyone is very tired,” he said.
Taxing deserters
Prosecutors and the military would prefer not to file charges against AWOL soldiers and to do so only if they fail to persuade them to return, according to three military officers and a spokesman for Ukraine’s State Investigation Bureau. Some defectors return, only to leave again.
Ukraine’s General Staff said soldiers are receiving psychological support, but did not respond to e-mailed questions about the number of defections on the battlefield.
Once soldiers are charged, their defense is difficult, said two lawyers who take such cases. They focus on their clients’ psychological state when they left.
“People cannot psychologically cope with the situation they are in and they are not offered psychological help,” said lawyer Tetyana Ivanova.
Soldiers acquitted of desertion on psychological grounds set a dangerous precedent because “then almost everyone is entitled (to leave), because there are almost no sane people left (in the infantry),” she said.
Soldiers considering deserting asked her for advice. A few were sent to fight near Vuhledar.
“They wouldn’t have conquered territory, they wouldn’t have conquered anything, but no one would have turned back,” she said.
Source: here
Russian troops and diplomats flee Damascus, – Defense Ministry’s Defense Intelligence – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024
Russians flee Syria’s capital – Damascus. Military and diplomats of the Russian Federation are urgently leaving the city.
This was reported by the press service of the Defense Intelligence Service of the Defense Ministry, reports Censor.NET.
“The forces opposing the Russian-backed Assad regime are actively advancing in the south of the country, the first urban battles have been fought in the cities of Hama, Homs and Suwayda.
The military contingent of Russia’s aggressor state fled Hama and evacuated to Khmeimim base. The head of the Russian coordination headquarters in Khmeimim Khmeim, Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlev, said that the situation is out of the Assad regime’s control,” the report said.
According to Defense Ministry intelligence, the first armed riots have started in Damascus.
“Russian military and diplomats urgently and urgently began to leave the Syrian capital. The Russians also fled from the military base in the city of Khan Sheikhoun, leaving there an impressive arsenal of weapons and equipment,” they said.
On December 1, 2024, Russian troops carried out airstrikes in Khan Sheikhoun areas. The aim is to destroy Russian Federation equipment, which has switched to opposition forces.
“Against the backdrop of the panicked flight of Russian troops, the news of the resignation of the commander of the Russian contingent, Gen. Kisel, spread actively among the Arab-speaking public. Colonel Vadim Baikulov, who commanded a unit of Russian special forces, was also recalled to Moscow ‘on the carpet’ – he has to explain to the leadership why his subordinate personnel suffered casualties killed and military equipment in Aleppo was captured,” the Defense Ministry’s Information Service summarized.
Fighting resumes in AleppoIt should be noted that on November 28, after four years of relative calm, fighting between Bashar al-Assad’s forces and opposition groups resumed with renewed vigor on the outskirts of Aleppo.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham announced a large-scale military operation against government troops. During the operation, they announced the capture of over 400 square kilometers of territory, including strategically important areas.
On November 29, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which leads a coalition of Syrian opposition forces, entered Aleppo and clashed with government forces on the western outskirts of the city.
On November 30, the Syrian armed forces announced a “temporary withdrawal of troops” from Aleppo to prepare a counteroffensive against opposition forces.
According to Al Arabia, rebels in Syria have taken control of Aleppo.
Source: here
Philippines spotted Russian submarine in its waters – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Monday that the presence of a Russian submarine in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea is “a great concern.”
This was reported by Reuters, Ukrinform reports.
A Russian Kilo-class submarine was spotted 80 nautical miles off western Occidental Mindoro province on November 28. Philippine Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad made the announcement on Monday, confirming a report by the Philippine Daily Inquirer.
“This is a big concern. Any intrusion into the western part of the Philippine Sea, into the FEZ, into our sea lanes is a big concern,” Marcos said, referring to part of the South China Sea in the Philippine maritime zone.
Philippine naval frigate Jose Rizal made radio contact with a Russian submarine, identifying it as UFA 490.
“The Russian vessel said it was waiting for weather conditions to improve before heading toward Vladivostok, Russia,” Trinidad said, without specifying why the vessel was in the area.
The Philippine Navy escorted the submarine to ensure compliance with maritime regulations, he added.
Russia’s Kilo-class submarines are considered low-speed submarines and have been continuously improved since the 1980s.
China and Russia heralded a “no-holds-barred” partnership after Vladimir Putin visited Beijing in 2022, just days before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine. In July, both countries conducted live-fire naval exercises in the South China Sea.
Tensions between Manila, a US ally, and Beijing have escalated in the past year over mutual claims in the South China Sea. In 2016, an arbitral tribunal ruled that China’s historical claims to the disputed waterway are unfounded, and Beijing rejects the decision.
As reported by Ukrinform, the Russian spy ship Yantar was withdrawn from the Irish Sea after its patrol was recorded in an area with critical underwater pipelines and cables of energy and internet networks.
Source: here
Zelensky: EU and NATO representatives should participate in possible negotiations with Russia – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024
Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski said that representatives of NATO and the European Union should participate in possible negotiations with Russia.
According to the publication Crimea. Realities, at a joint press conference with the President of the European Council, António Costa, who was on an official visit to Kiev, Zelensky literally said the following, “Who will be at the negotiating table? Russia, Ukraine and, as I said, the European Union and NATO. Because we see ourselves as part of the security system in these unions. And in this format, I understand what we can agree on.”
At the same time, the head of Ukraine emphasized that he opposes freezing the war without a “strong position for Ukraine”, because, in his opinion, otherwise, in a few years, Putin “will come back again and completely destroy Ukraine”. By “strong position”, Zelenski means the provision of security guarantees from NATO and the European Union.
The Ukrainian president also stated once again that Kiev will never legally recognize the Russian occupation of its territories. “These are our lands, these are our people. Parts of Ukraine temporarily occupied. Of course, all this will return. I would very much like most of them to return diplomatically,” Zelenski said.
The topic of possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is increasingly being discussed in world political circles and the media. The Kremlin says it is ready to negotiate peace, but only on its own terms, which, among other things, include Russia’s recognition of five Ukrainian regions and even those parts of them that are currently controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Kiev considers these conditions “absolutely unacceptable”.
Source: here
Storm Bora hits Greece, there are dead – Black Sea News – 2.12.2024
At least two people have died on the Greek island of Lemnos due to storm Bora.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported by the BBC.
A 70-year-old man from Contias died when he fell while trying to clean his house.
Firefighters also found a 57-year-old farmer dead, who was reported missing by his family. According to police sources, the man drowned after being swept away by water while trying to remove his car, which was stuck in the mud.
It is noted that more than 30 cm of rain fell on the island of Rhodes, one of the first areas hit by storm Bora.
On the island, the authorities have imposed a one-day driving ban. Many roads on the island are impassable and bridges have been destroyed in the Kallithea-Faliraki area.
The mayor of Rhodes, Alexandros Koliadis, called on the Greek government to declare a state of emergency on the island.
Damage is also reported in Greece’s second largest city, Thessaloniki. The city’s civil protection department has urged residents in the Pilaya and Hortiatis districts to limit their movement due to strong winds – gusts reaching more than 80 km/h.
Meanwhile, a cargo ship docked in the port of Thessaloniki was buffeted by strong winds, leading to a collision with another cargo ship and damaging both vessels.
Meteorologists predict that storm Bora is likely to affect many parts of Greece before Tuesday morning.
Source: here