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How US Navy Strikes Mine-Laying Ships in the Strait of Hormuz?
MS Daily brief-12 March 2026
- MS Daily Brief-en
- The French nuclear deterrence initiative and European security: legal and strategic implications of a debate on Romania
- “The Stratified Conflict: Multidomain Warfare and Iran’s Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East”
- PHASES OF THE ATTACK ON IRAN AND MULTIDOMAIN WARFARE
- FOUR YEARS OF WAR IN UKRAINE
- Iran’s air defence system
- The need to reevaluate maritime doctrine following the introduction of maritime drones into the Romanian Navy
Contents
Update from CENTCOM commander on Operation Epic Fury. 1
News from Ukraine | Amazing! Russian army crushed by new Ukrainian attack. 1
Iran intensifies attacks on infrastructure and transport networks in the Persian Gulf. 1
Israel bombs Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon amid escalating conflict with Hezbollah 7
Iranian factions in exile are fighting to get the blessing of American leaders to lead Iran. 9
Ukraine war update: conflict between Kiev and Hungary over Russian oil pipeline deepens 15
US intervention regarding mining in the Strait of Hormuz. 18
North Korea tests naval cruise missiles from new destroyer to advance its sea attack capability 26
Is China’s Type 055 a cruiser or a destroyer?. 34
US CENTCOM confirms sinking of Iranian ships near Strait of Hormuz. 36
Navantia prepares Avante 2200/ALFA 3000 for Croatian corvette programme. 37
French Navy FREMM frigate wins US Navy’s Hook ‘Em award again. 40
10 additional French warships to be sent to the Middle East 42
Update from CENTCOM commander on Operation Epic Fury
BREAKING: Iran’s new ayatollah DISAPPEARS; B-1 bombers return; North Korea’s NUCLEAR DEAL revealed | TBN Israel
News from Ukraine | Amazing! Russian army crushed by new Ukrainian attack
Iran intensifies attacks on infrastructure and transport networks in the Persian Gulf
Iranian officials warn of a “war of attrition” and global economic chaos amid declining energy supplies
Jason Burke in Jerusalem and William Christou in Beirut
Thursday, 12 March 2026, 00:02 CET
Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of attacking civilian infrastructure and transport networks in the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai International Airport, while American and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of attacks on the Islamic Republic.
Senior Iranian officials adopted a defiant tone, warning of a long-term “war of attrition” that would threaten global economic chaos as energy supplies from the region are restricted.
In what appears to be a deepening stalemate in the 12-day conflict, violence continued across the Middle East, with Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and barrages of Iranian and Hezbollah rockets targeting Israel.
Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed at least 634 people and wounded 1,586 in less than 10 days of fighting. More than 816,700 families have registered as displaced persons with the Lebanese state.
On Wednesday evening, in a sudden escalation, Israeli warplanes bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut and southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones and rockets at northern Israel.
The rockets were launched in tandem with Iranian missiles, marking the first time the two countries have coordinated attacks against Israel since the start of the war with Iran.
In the Gulf, Kuwait said its air defences shot down eight Iranian drones, and Saudi Arabia said it intercepted five drones heading for the Shaybah oil field.
In Tehran and other Iranian cities, huge crowds took to the streets for the funerals of senior Iranian commanders killed in US and Israeli air strikes at the start of the war. Those attending the funerals carried coffins and waved flags and portraits of the late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the first minute of the American-Israeli offensive, and his son and successor, Mojtaba.
Iranian officials acknowledged on Wednesday for the first time that Iran’s new leader was wounded in the air strikes that killed his father, mother, wife and son. The 56-year-old man has not appeared in public or delivered any direct messages since the start of the war.
“I heard he was injured in his legs, hand and arm… I think he is in hospital because he is injured,” Tehran’s ambassador to Cyprus, Alireza Salarian, told the Guardian.
Despite growing pressure on the US and Israel to consider scaling back their joint offensive, decision-makers in both countries appear to be continuing the campaign for the time being.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that he would continue “without any time limit, as long as necessary, until we achieve all our objectives and win the campaign.”
Donald Trump has sent more contradictory messages in recent days, going from calling the war a “short trip” that could end soon to proclaiming “we haven’t won enough” in the same speech he gave on Monday in Washington.
On Wednesday, the US president told a rally in Hebron, Kentucky, that “we have won,” but that the US would remain in the fight to complete the mission.
“You never like to say too early that you’ve won. We won. It was over in the first hour,” Trump said.
He claimed that the US had destroyed 58 Iranian military vessels, but indicated that they would continue to fight. “We don’t want to leave early, do we?” he added. “We have to finish the job… We don’t want to come back every two years.”
Governments around the world fear economic turmoil caused by rising oil prices, which could upset many voters.
Trump also appeared to praise the “tremendous impact” of the decisions taken by the G7 leaders, who met to discuss the war and its economic consequences, according to a short video distributed by the French presidency.
“I think we have a tremendous, incredible impact on the world,” Trump said after being given the floor by his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, who chaired the meeting. However, it was not very clear who or what Trump was referring to.
Trump spoke after the International Energy Agency recommended releasing 400 million barrels of oil, the largest measure of its kind in the history of the IEA, in an effort to limit oil price increases. A few hours later, the US announced that it would release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic oil reserve.
However, there are still no signs that ships can safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Three commercial ships in the Gulf were hit by unknown projectiles on Wednesday, according to agencies monitoring maritime security, bringing the number of ships hit since the start of the war to 14.
The crew was evacuated from a Thai-flagged cargo ship after an explosion caused a fire. A Japanese-flagged container ship and a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship also suffered damage.
On Thursday morning, new attacks were reported – Iraq announced that two oil tankers had been “sabotaged,” resulting in at least one death.
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that oil tankers passing through the strait “will be given increased security, and that will happen very, very quickly,” without giving further details.
Hundreds of ships are stuck behind the narrow channel along Iran’s southern coast, fearing an Iranian attack, in the most serious disruption to energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.
The Revolutionary Guards said Tehran would not allow “a single litre of oil” to pass through this vital waterway until the US and Israel ended their bombing campaign.
Iran also continued to target oil fields and refineries in Gulf countries in an attempt to force the US and Israel to halt their offensive.
“Get ready for a $200-a-barrel oil price, because the price of oil depends on the regional security that you have destabilised,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for the Iranian military command, said in comments addressed to the US.
On Wednesday, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for an immediate end to attacks on Gulf states. Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir-Saeid Iravani, condemned the vote as politically motivated.
“Today’s action is a flagrant abuse of the Security Council’s mandate in pursuit of the political agendas of certain members, of various states responsible for the brutal war of aggression against my country,” he said.
The Iranian military said it had attacked key targets in Israel, including the military intelligence headquarters, a naval base in Haifa and a radar system. It also said it had targeted US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
American and Israeli officials say their goal is to end Iran’s ability to project force beyond its borders and destroy its nuclear programme, although they have also encouraged Iranians to overthrow the Islamist clerical regime that took power after the 1979 revolution , which ousted the shah, an ally of the US. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday repeated his call for the Iranian people to rise up.
Iranian police chief Ahmadreza Radan said any protesters would be treated as enemies. “All our security forces have their fingers on the trigger,” he said.
Tehran residents said they had grown accustomed to the nightly air strikes that have caused hundreds of thousands of people to flee to the countryside and contaminated the city with black rain from oil smoke.
“There were bombings last night, but I wasn’t scared like before. Life goes on,” said Farshid, 52, on the phone.
Iran accused the US and Israel of striking a maritime ambulance on an island in the Strait of Hormuz, the Mehr news agency reported.
Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said Iran’s ballistic missile and drone attacks had “dropped dramatically” following US strikes, including one on a “major ballistic missile factory.” The targets included more than 60 ships, he said in a video posted on social media on Wednesday.
Cooper also confirmed that the military is using “advanced artificial intelligence tools” to “process huge amounts of data in seconds.” He said these tools allow leaders to make smarter decisions faster, but stressed that “people will always make the final decisions on what to shoot and what not to shoot and when to shoot.”
The explosion rocked Israel before dawn as air defences intercepted the missiles. Sirens sent Israelis to shelters. Twelve people were killed and hundreds wounded in the Iranian and Hezbollah attacks. Israeli officials have repeatedly accused Iran of using cluster munitions, which are illegal under international law, against populated centres.
More than 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed since the US and Israeli air strikes began on 28 February, according to Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani.
Washington says seven American soldiers have been killed and about 140 wounded.
The promotion of Mojtaba Khamenei, who is injured, to the position of supreme leader shows that the Iranian war machine can operate on autopilot.
Patrick WintourDiplomatic Editor
His lack of public appearances has sparked speculation about the new leader’s mortality, after several members of his family died
Wednesday, 11 March 2026, 19:31 CET
Confirmation that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured in the first series of Israeli attacks underscores how desperate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (ICRG) was to ensure that their injured choice was elevated to high office and how confident it is that the war machine can operate almost on autopilot without him.
The extent of Khamenei’s injuries and the speed of his recovery remain unclear, but a broken leg and facial injuries are the minimum. The authorities are reluctant to focus on the medical bulletin, although Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, chose his words carefully when he said that “his condition has not been reported as critical,” a formulation that suggests he has not seen him personally.
In an attempt to show that the government is functioning in accordance with the constitution, he added: “Despite this incident, he continues to provide full authoritative guidance and supervision of operations, and all actions and attacks are carried out with his permission and direct orders.”
But now it appears that part of the delay in his election was not just a technical issue related to convening the Assembly of Experts, the 88-member body of clerics that elects the supreme leader, during wartime, but also doubts about Khamenei’s ability and willingness to take office.
The fact that he could have survived the attack on the supreme leader’s office without a scratch seemed unlikely, given that his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his mother, his wife Zahra Haddad-Adel and one of his sons were killed. He also lost his sister, brother-in-law and a niece. His mother died three days after the attack from her injuries. The entire office of the supreme leader was set on fire. At the very least, this would have left an indelible emotional, if not physical, mark.
Opposition groups in the diaspora claimed that Khamenei was in a coma and being treated in secret in hospital, unaware of his appointment as supreme leader or the devastating damage suffered by his family.
The failure of the government’s communications apparatus to publish a single photograph, video or even text from Mojtaba three days after his appointment led to inevitable speculation that the assembly of experts had, consciously or unconsciously, chosen a corpse or a cardboard cut-out to lead the country.
The Israeli Foreign Ministry had no doubts about his health, printing a photograph of his cardboard silhouette alongside the caption: “You can run, you can hide, but cardboard regimes collapse.”
The lack of a public appearance or even an audio recording undermined the sense of continuity generated by his election and led to claims on social media that the IRGC had consciously supported the candidacy of a dead man. Even the feeling that his hiding place had to be protected from Israeli bombs flying overhead did not seem a sufficient explanation.
An Iranian journalist insisted: “The leader of Iran can lead without appearing in public. He doesn’t need to be on the street or in a religious centre. What matters is the management of the country.”
Loyalists published a photo of him that could have been generated by artificial intelligence and claimed that he had presided over a meeting of top IRGC commanders.
The way the episode was handled was all the more strange given that, despite severe censorship of the Iranian media, it began to speculate about the health of the new silent leader.
On Tuesday, local media in Iran asked Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, whether Khamenei had taken over and assumed his new role as the country’s religious and political leader and supreme commander of the armed forces. Baghaei avoided giving a direct answer, saying, “Those who need to get the message have gotten it.”
Instead, confirmation that he had been injured came almost in passing in a telegram posted by Yousef Pezeshkian, the president’s temperamental and outspoken son, in which, alongside a passing reference to news of snow in Tehran, he revealed that he had heard that Mojtaba had been injured but was in good health and had no problems.
Will Trump strike a deal with Iran’s new supreme leader? – Latest news
Inevitably, Mojtaba’s appointment, already denounced by opponents of the regime, including some in Evin prison, as a shameful puppet of the IRGC, will be seen as a sign that they were desperate to install their man, regardless of his health. The IRGC is not just an army, but a commercial empire with investments spread throughout the economy
Maryam Alemzadeh, associate professor of Iranian history and politics at St Antony’s College, Oxford, argues that the system is robust, having been deliberately designed to have a leadership that is very easy to replace.
“Resilience has been based on this semi-formal network of the IRGC, Basij and other state services that have performed multiple roles, including service provision, surveillance and repression. Decapitation has almost no effect on this network. If it has any effect, it is a limited one, rallying around the flag within this particular group, but not among the general population,” Alemzadeh said.
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said it could take up to four years for Khamenei, 56, to assert himself personally, just as his father struggled for authority at first. “The office does not confer power. It is the personality of the person who holds the office. It takes time.”
Overall, the military strategy has been set, and the war is on autopilot, seeking to maximise the external economic costs to Iran’s adversaries by waging an asymmetrical war in which there are no limits. At present, Iran does not need a new leader — dead, alive or wounded — to update the IRGC’s target base. Instead, it can watch Donald Trump struggle daily to explain what he is trying to achieve. What will matter more is whether he will be needed to decide if and when the conflict can end. But for now, if there is one country in this war that is rudderless, it is not Iran.
Israel bombs Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon amid escalating conflict with Hezbollah
Hezbollah and Iran have launched a joint attack on more than 50 targets, including Israeli military bases
William Christou in Beirut
Thursday, 12 March 2026, 01:10 CET
Israeli fighter jets bombed suburbs in southern Beirut and southern Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drones and rockets at northern Israel on Wednesday evening, in a sudden escalation of the 10-day conflict.
Hezbollah launched successive waves of rockets and swarms of drones on Israel on Wednesday evening, injuring two people, with most of the projectiles being intercepted or falling in open areas.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards later said they had carried out several attacks alongside Hezbollah.
In a statement released by the Fars and Tasnim news agencies, the Guards said the “joint and integrated operation” involved a missile attack by Iran, carried out together with Hezbollah missiles and drones.
The operation focused on “more than 50 targets” on Israeli territory, the statement added, including Israeli military bases in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Beersheba.
The Hezbollah attack was the most intense launched by the pro-Iranian group since it first fired rockets at Israel 10 days earlier, triggering a military campaign of retaliation by Israel. The rockets were launched in tandem with Iranian missiles, marking the first time the two groups had coordinated attacks against Israel since the start of the war with Iran.
Hezbollah’s operation, called “Operation Chewed Wheat” — a reference to a verse in the Quran about reducing enemies to chewed wheat — represented a sudden escalation by the group, which has been affected by nearly two years of daily Israeli airstrikes.
Lebanon quickly became the most intense battleground in the region, while the war in Iran, triggered by Israel and the US two weeks earlier, continued to consume the Middle East and beyond.
Israeli warplanes began bombing Lebanon almost immediately after the Hezbollah attacks. The skies over Beirut lit up red, and windows around the capital shook as Israel launched its heaviest bombardment of the southern suburbs in this round of fighting. Videos showed collapsed buildings in southern Lebanon and streets choked with smoke, lit by huge flames.
Israel also carried out an attack in the early hours of Thursday in the Ramlet al-Baida neighbourhood in central Beirut, on the corniche, where many displaced families had been sleeping outdoors for a week. The attack hit the densely populated area, with videos showing at least two men lying dead on the seaside promenade. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said at least seven people were killed in the attack.
Elsewhere, the health ministry said at least 17 people were wounded in attacks on suburbs south of Beirut, although more casualties were expected from other attacks across the country.
In southern Lebanon, an Israeli army spokesman said it was striking Hezbollah rocket launchers. They warned residents that they would “soon act with overwhelming force” against Hezbollah and that residents should immediately leave the affected areas, repeating evacuation orders issued for large areas of the country earlier last week.
Israeli attacks have killed at least 634 people and wounded 1,586 in less than 10 days of fighting. More than 816,700 families have registered as displaced with the Lebanese state, but that number is expected to rise due to Israeli air strikes and evacuation orders.
Wednesday evening’s escalation came as Israeli officials signalled a possible expansion of the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s security cabinet met on Wednesday evening to discuss Lebanon, where officials have been trying to prevent the group from firing rockets into Israeli territory.
On Wednesday, Israeli army chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir ordered reinforcements to be sent to the northern border with Lebanon, redeploying the Golani Brigade from Gaza to the north. The Golani Brigade specialises in offensive ground operations, and analysts said the redeployment could signal a broader ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah appears to be preparing for a large-scale Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah fighters have been battling Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, particularly around strategic points in the east of the country, such as the hilltops around al-Khiam. Small units of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force have been operating autonomously to ambush Israeli troops conducting raids in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah is said to have spent a year and a half since the November 2024 ceasefire with Israel rebuilding its capabilities and reconsolidating its organisation. Israel killed most of the group’s senior leaders and killed or incapacitated thousands of its fighters during the 13-month war, although the exact figures are unknown.
As fighting continued in southern Lebanon, Israeli bombing has steadily intensified over the past 10 days. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Israel struck an apartment block in central Beirut, injuring four people. It was the second time in a week that Israel had struck deep inside the capital, leaving residents shocked and uncertain about where it was safe to be.
The Lebanese government has called on Hezbollah to cease its attacks on Israel and insisted that the state should have a monopoly on violence in the country. But its army, understaffed and under-equipped, has so far failed to directly confront the powerful armed group. The government is also wary of provoking civil strife in Lebanon, which has a long and painful history of sectarian divisions and violence.
The Lebanese government, with the help of France, has appealed to the international community for a ceasefire in Lebanon, calling for negotiations with Israel and promising to limit Hezbollah’s activities in the country. However, Israel and the US are sceptical about the Lebanese government’s ability to disarm Hezbollah, with the former appearing determined to deal with the group on its own.
On Wednesday, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, questioned the Lebanese government’s efforts to confront Hezbollah.
“If Hezbollah is disbanded, where is the evidence? Where are the operations against the launch sites? Where are the seizures of their weapons? Where is your army?” Danon said.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/12/israel-bombards-beirut-southern-lebanon-hezbollah
Iranian factions in exile are fighting to get the blessing of American leaders to lead Iran
World figures support Maryam Rajavi, leader of the MEK, and Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah
Wednesday, 11 March 2026, 10:00 CET
In November 2002, as an American battle group headed for the Persian Gulf, rival Iraqi exiles, some backed by influential figures in the US, were fighting for positions in the hope of taking power once George W. Bush overthrew Saddam Hussein. Bloomberg called them “Iraq’s undisciplined opposition.”
The most notorious Iraqi exile, the failed former banker Ahmad Chalabi, boasted to his neoconservative allies that his return to Baghdad would be greeted by enthusiastic crowds. Among his rivals was a former doctor named Ayad Allawi, who was backed by Britain’s MI6 and the Central Intelligence Agency in his bid to gain support to lead Iraq.
Now, Iranian factions, rather than Iraqi ones, are the ones pulling the strings of American officials, fighting for the White House’s blessing to lead a future government of Iran following Donald Trump‘s massive military operation.
Some of the world’s Maga personalities have thrown their weight behind Maryam Rajavi, the Paris-based leader of the Mujahedin-e Khalq, or MEK, what some call a cult-like organisation that was once aligned with Saddam. Although said to be unpopular in Iran, the group has forged strong ties in Washington, often using the MEK’s political front, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, to lobby.
Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s former personal lawyer, and former CIA director Mike Pompeo are among Rajavi’s most vocal supporters. Shortly after the US attacks began, Giuliani insisted that the MEK was ready to replace the regime. “They have a shadow government ready to go.”
Rajavi quickly attempted to claim power, announcing a “provisional government” on the day the US bombing began.
Seven days later, another figure, Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last shah, stepped in to claim that he would be in charge. “The Iranian people have called on me,” he said in a video posted on social media, “to lead the transition after the fall of the regime. I have accepted this responsibility.”
Pahlavi’s supporters are at odds with the MEK. They call Pahlavi the crown prince and believe that, thanks to his pedigree, he could unite Iranians behind him.
Pahlavi told Fox & Friends last week that he is ready to return after years in exile: “It is important for me to be with my compatriots to fight the final battle.”
Videos posted from Tehran show chants invoking his name at protests in January, with some people calling for the return of the monarchy.
Both Pahlavi and Rajavi tout their political credibility and promise popular support, but neither leader has the connections to Washington or its security institutions that the Iraqi candidates enjoyed in 2002.
And although Trump’s former associates and fringe talk show hosts continue to champion the dissidents’ campaigns, there is little indication that this enthusiasm will translate into real political power.
Many also fear that in Iran, both Pahlavi and Rajavi are unlikely leaders if Trump were to appoint them.
“There is no good option,” Mark Fowler, former deputy head of the CIA’s Iran task force, told The Guardian.
“Extremely ineffective”
After his father’s death in 1980, Reza Pahlavi, aged just 20, proclaimed himself heir to the peacock throne. United Press International (UPI) described the aspiring prince as a “shy young man” with an “unrestrained smile”.
Pahlavi’s supporters carried posters bearing his portrait at demonstrations. Some still do so 45 years later, although they have updated the photos as he has aged.
At first glance, Pahlavi is out of step with ordinary Iranians. For one thing, he has established ties with Israel, travelling there in 2023, where he was welcomed by Benjamin Netanyahu. His father was the second Muslim leader to recognise Israel after its founding.
That same year, Pahlavi accepted the Log Cabin Republicans’ LGBTQ+ Outspoken Award. “I am proud to stand up for the rights of the Iranian LGBTQ community,” he tweeted, distancing himself from Iranian leaders, who have sentenced members of same-sex couples to death.
Recently, Pahlavi has made sustained efforts to establish ties with the White House.
In January, on Fox News, he complimented Trump: “Mr President, you have already built a legacy as a man dedicated to peace and fighting the forces of evil. There is a reason why people in Iran name streets after you. They know you are the exact opposite of Barack Obama or Joe Biden.”
People within the Washington administration expressed their support for his vision in Iran, sending a letter to Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN, just two days before the US attacks.
“We are united in following the four principles announced by Prince Reza Pahlavi,” the letter said. A final point supported his vision of “the Iranian people’s right to determine the future democratic form of their government.”
The advisory board of the Institute for the Voices of Freedom, which sent the letter, included Phil Waldron, a retired colonel who helped Trump promote narratives about foreign interference in the 2020 election.
Pahlavi’s efforts after the bombing were unsuccessful.
When asked last week whether Pahlavi could be chosen by the US to lead Iran, Trump said Pahlavi was a “very nice person,” but that “we haven’t thought about it too much. It seems to me that someone from within would be — maybe that would be more appropriate.”
A group of Russian pranksters recently lured Pahlavi into a Zoom call under false pretenses, claiming to be representatives of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. A man who introduced himself as Adolf and wore an ostentatious moustache similar to Hitler’s told Pahlavi that Germany was preparing to bomb Iran as part of a joint US-Israel campaign.
“The more members we have in this coalition against the regime, the better,” Pahlavi replied, supporting the hostilities that have already killed more than 1,000 Iranians, including more than 160 children.
Justin Forsyth, a representative of Pahlavi, sent an email to the Guardian stating that Pahlavi is in a unique position to lead Iran’s transition to democracy.
“He has the support of millions of people in all provinces. He has largely united the main opposition, and elements of the army and security forces will defect and follow him,” Forsyth said. “Tens of thousands have already defected. This is an essential part of his plan.”
Forsyth said: “The Guardian and other media outlets have vastly underestimated the massive support he enjoys in the country.”
Former American officials who worked on Iran issues say Pahlavi does not have much influence in Iran.
“I found him extremely ineffective,” said Fowler, the former CIA operative.
Fowler said it is not easy to work with exiles because some are eager to tell American officials what they think they want to hear. “When you’re dealing with these kinds of opposition figures, it’s complicated. You’re dealing with people who only tell you nice things.”
“I would reject the MEK without hesitation.”
Although Pahlavi has his supporters, it is the MEK and its leader, Rajavi, who have most insistently sought recognition from Washington.
Founded in the 1960s as a Marxist and Islamist group, the MEK fought against the Shah, Pahlavi’s father, and his American supporters. Its members even launched an assassination attack in 1975 against American officers, shooting them with machine guns.
In 1997, the US State Department designated it a terrorist organisation, explaining: “In the 1970s, the MEK organised terrorist attacks in Iran and killed several American military personnel and civilians working on defence projects in Tehran.”
The MEK claimed that the attackers were from a separatist Marxist faction.
After the revolution, they fought in support of Saddam Hussein in his war against the Iranian regime, operating from a fortified base 80 km north of Baghdad.
Counterintuitively, the American invasion of Iraq became the group’s ticket to success in Washington, after American troops began protecting the MEK base against Iraqis who had turned against them.
“Americans like me — the military — got close to them,” said retired Colonel Wes Martin, who commanded the base that housed the MEK in Iraq.
“We were working with them.” Martin, who supports the MEK, says he is convinced that it was not the terrorist group it was portrayed as.
Soon, back in Washington, the MEK launched a highly successful lobbying campaign, mainly to have its terrorist status lifted. After paying $1.5 million to three top lobbying firms in 2012, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton granted the request.
Among their promoters were former FBI Director Louis Freeh, former Attorney General Michael Mukasey, and John Bolton, who would become Trump’s national security adviser.
Alan Dershowitz, who represented Trump during his Senate impeachment trial for inciting the 6 January insurrection at the Capitol, was also a senior legal adviser to Rajavi’s group.
Rajavi’s ties to Washington are now boosting his visibility. “The democratic opposition in Iran is ready to take the lead,” Pompeo wrote on Twitter hours after Trump launched the attacks on Iran.
Two days after the war began, Giuliani, a longtime supporter of Rajavi, aired a video of the MEK leader on his show on X.
He ridiculed the Shah’s son. “Pahlavi has almost no support in the country,” Giuliani posted.
Pro-Trump media outlets have also been promoting the MEK since Saturday’s attacks. Matt Gaetz, a former member of Congress and Trump’s failed nominee for U.S. attorney general, invited MEK supporter Ali Safavi to appear on his One America News Network show last week.
Safavi told Gaetz that MEK members had already taken control of an Iranian government building. “The standing order was that if Khamenei dies, you are free to do whatever is necessary to mobilise the population,” he said.
In an eight-page letter responding to questions on the subject, Safavi, an MEK official, wrote that the group was the target of longstanding false accusations originating with the Iranian regime and that “The Guardian has repeatedly recycled some of these claims” in previous articles.
“If the MEK truly has no support inside or outside Iran,” he wrote, “why has the clerical regime devoted its entire military, intelligence and propaganda apparatus to destroying and discrediting it?”
He said the killings of Americans were committed by a “dissident Marxist group.” Safavi characterised Pahlavi as “the son of a dictator who ruled Iran for 37 years through a one-party system, executions and the suppression of all democratic opposition forces, before finally fleeing the country as millions of Iranians chanted ‘death to the Shah’.”
Fowler, the former CIA official, says the group should not be a partner in any effort to rebuild Iran.
“They killed Americans. I would reject the MEK without hesitation,” Fowler said. “They’re pretty good at convincing people that ‘we’ve changed,'” Fowler said. “They’re not exactly like Chalabi, but they know what to say.”
The White House did not respond to detailed questions on the subject, but cited Trump’s comments to Politico on Thursday, in which he said he would help choose Iran’s next leader.
“We will work with the people and the regime to ensure that someone who can build Iran properly, but without nuclear weapons, comes to power,” Trump said.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/11/iran-leaders-us-trump-support
Three commercial ships hit amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, in the context of the war with Iran
The crew of a Thai-registered bulk carrier was forced to flee due to a fire, while the US claims to have destroyed 16 Iranian mining vessels
Dan Sabbagh and Mark Saunokonoko
Wednesday, 11 March 2026, 19:15 CET
Three commercial vessels were hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz, including a Thai-registered cargo ship that caught fire after leaving a port in the United Arab Emirates, forcing crew members to evacuate for their safety.
The Mayuree Naree was hit on Wednesday by “two projectiles of unknown origin” while sailing about 11 nautical miles north of Oman, marking the end of a four-day hiatus of attacks in this strategic waterway.
A fire broke out in the ship’s engine room and had to be extinguished. Twenty crew members were evacuated by the Omani navy, while a reduced crew of three remained on the damaged ship, awaiting rescue.
The strait has been effectively closed since the beginning of the month, after the US and Israeli attack on Iran prompted Tehran to retaliate across the region. Only a few ships have confirmed that they risked crossing the strait.
About a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes through the strait, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said earlier this week that it would not allow “a single litre of oil” to leave the region if US-Israeli attacks continued.
The other two ships hit were only slightly damaged. ONE Majesty, a Japanese container ship, was hit by an unknown projectile 28 miles (45 km) northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, suffering minor damage above the waterline.
A bulk carrier, Star Gwyneth, flying the Marshall Islands flag, was struck approximately 30 miles (50 km) northwest of Dubai, west of the strait, suffering damage to its hull in the hold area while anchored. In both cases, no serious injuries to the crew were reported.
“Get ready for a $200 a barrel oil price, because the price of oil depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” said Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesman for the Iranian military command. Oil prices, which rose sharply on Monday to nearly $120 per barrel, have since stabilised at around $90 amid hopes that the war will end soon.
US media reported that Iran had begun placing about a dozen mines in the strait, although French President Emmanuel Macron said he had no confirmation of this. Such an operation would most likely be carried out using fast navy or Revolutionary Guard vessels or miniature submarines that have survived repeated US attacks.
Sidharth Kaushal, a naval expert at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “Mining is a threat, not because the Iranians can physically close the strait (most mining vessels can be hit, especially if they have no traffic to hide in), but rather because just a few are enough to keep insurers nervous.”
On Tuesday, Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that “if Iran has placed mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and we have no information that they have done so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!” Less than two hours later, the US military released unclassified images of the attacks on the mining vessels.
The US military said it had attacked and destroyed 16 Iranian mining vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader strategy to destroy the country’s navy and its ability to threaten international shipping.
Admiral Bradley Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the US had hit 5,500 targets in Iran, 500 more than the previous day, and “over 60 ships”. Iranian civilians were warned to stay away from civilian ports, where, according to statements, the country’s navy was operating.
There were initial discussions about the US Navy convoy transporting oil tankers through the straits, but there were no signs of a patrol mission as the conflict remains at a high level. France has said it wants to join a convoy once the worst of the fighting subsides, but Britain has suggested it considers air protection more relevant.
At a defence department meeting, US General Dan Caine addressed the possibility of the US navy escorting ships through the strait. “We are looking at a range of options and will find solutions as issues arise,” he told reporters.
When asked on Wednesday how the US intended to ensure security in the strait, Trump told reporters: “I think you’re going to see increased security, and it’s going to happen very, very quickly,” but gave no details.
The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles (34 km) wide at its narrowest point, and the shipping lane is only 2 miles (3.2 km) wide in both directions. Oil and gas exports from countries bordering the Persian Gulf must usually pass through the strait to reach export markets around the world, although there are a few alternatives.
On Tuesday, Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi oil company Aramco, said tankers were being rerouted to avoid the strait and that the company’s east-west pipeline would reach its maximum capacity this week of 7 million barrels per day, transported to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/mar/11/us-iran-strait-of-hormuz-mine-boat-attacks
Ukraine war update: conflict between Kiev and Hungary over Russian oil pipeline deepens
Budapest said it had sent a delegation for negotiations, but Kiev denied that the group had official status; Ukrainian drone experts are working in the Gulf. What we know on day 1,477
Guardian staff
Thursday, 12 March 2026, 01:28 CET
The dispute between Ukraine and Hungary over the pipeline carrying Russian oil appears to be deepening on Wednesday after Budapest said it had sent a delegation for negotiations and Kiev denied that the group had official status. Hungary and neighbouring Slovakia accuse Kiev of deliberately delaying the reopening of the Druzhba pipeline that pumps Russian oil to the two landlocked states. Ukraine claims the pipeline was damaged by Russian attacks in January. Hungarian Energy Minister Gabor Czepek said the group, which includes representatives from Slovakia, would try to hold talks on reopening the Druzhba pipeline.
Ukrainian drone warfare experts have begun working in three Gulf states targeted by Iranian attacks, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday. Kiev has sought to capitalise on its experience in shooting down Russian drones to help Gulf countries, which are being attacked with the same Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia is launching on Ukraine.
The G7 countries on Wednesday rejected easing punitive measures against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, as the war in the Middle East causes chaos in global oil markets, French President Emmanuel Macron said.
Russian forces attacked an oil pumping station in the Odessa region of southern Ukraine with drones for the second day in a row, the CEO of Ukrainian oil and gas company Naftogaz said on Wednesday. In a statement, Serhiy Koretskyi said the attacks were aimed at preventing alternative supplies of non-Russian oil to Europe, adding that Russia had attacked Naftogaz infrastructure more than 30 times this year.
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday condemned a deadly Ukrainian attack on the western Russian city of Bryansk, calling it a “terrorist attack” and accusing Britain, whose missiles were allegedly used, of violating international legal norms. In a statement, the ministry said the attack was intended to sabotage peace efforts and fuel the escalation of the conflict.
Bryansk regional governor Alexander Bogomaz said on Wednesday that one more person had died in the attack, bringing the death toll to seven. Bogomaz had previously said that Tuesday’s attack had injured 42 people, without specifying what had been hit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy met with American negotiators in Florida on Wednesday, the United States said, in the first talks since the start of the American-Israeli war against Iran. The talks come after the US lifted some sanctions on Russian oil earlier this week — imposed because of Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — to lower prices amid the war with Iran.
The Ukrainian team launched a virulent attack against the International Paralympic Committee and the organisers of the Winter Paralympics, claiming that they had been subjected to “systematic pressure” to reduce their presence at the Games in Milan Cortina. The Ukrainian National Paralympic Committee made four specific accusations against the IPC and the Milan Cortina organisers, citing mistreatment of its athletes and a “systematic” attempt to remove flags from the team’s base and from spectators.
Trump news in brief: Trump says the war is won, but “we don’t want to leave early,” as oil prices rise again
Trump continues to send mixed messages on Iran; US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Key US political news from 11 March
The Guardian team
Thursday, 12 March 2026, 01:45 CET
Donald Trump continued his contradictory messages regarding the war in Iran, declaring at a rally in Kentucky that the war is “won,” but “we don’t want to leave early, do we?”
With Trump and his Republican colleagues under pressure, according to polls, due to the faltering economy, harsh immigration measures and the conflict with Iran, the president noted that this year’s midterm elections “will be very, very important.”
His comments came as US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US would release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic oil reserve in an attempt to lower oil prices, which have soared due to supply shocks caused by the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
Wright said the release was part of a larger release of 400 million barrels of oil agreed by the 32-nation International Energy Agency earlier in the day. He said the release would begin next week and last for about 120 days.
However, oil prices continued to rise amid attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, and Americans are feeling the effects. Gasoline prices rose from a national average of $2.94 per gallon a month ago to $3.58 on Wednesday, according to AAA.
Here are the most important news stories of the day:
Trump declares at Kentucky rally that Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities have deteriorated
Donald Trump told hundreds of supporters gathered at a packaging factory in northern Kentucky on Wednesday that Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities have significantly deteriorated.
“Their drones are down 85%, we’re destroying their factories,” he told an ecstatic audience in Hebron.
“I don’t know what the hell hit them,” Trump said.
Although he did not provide further details on when the conflict that began 10 days ago might end, the president suggested that it would not be anytime soon.
“We don’t want to go back every two years. We’re going to finish the job,” he said.
Trump pressures Senate Republican leader over strict voter identification bill
Donald Trump lashed out at Senate Majority Leader John Thune over his refusal to change the rules to force a vote on the Save America Act, a sweeping bill that would overturn midterm elections for American voters. Trump sent a direct message to Thune to reporters outside the White House on Wednesday: “He needs to be a leader.”
The comments came after Trump put intense pressure on the bill, saying he would not sign any other legislation until the Save America Act reached his desk for signing.
US responsible for deadly missile strike on Iranian school, investigation finds
A preliminary investigation by the US military has determined that Washington is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school in February that killed dozens of children.
According to the New York Times, citing anonymous US officials and others familiar with the initial findings, the investigation concluded that the 28 February attack on the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was the result of a targeting error by US military planners.
Foreign hacker broke into FBI servers containing Epstein files in 2023
A foreign hacker compromised files related to the FBI’s investigation of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein during a break-in at the FBI’s local office in New York three years ago, according to a source familiar with the matter and documents recently released by the Justice Department, reviewed by Reuters.
Experts fear that the “unethical” vaccine study in Africa is a “prototype” for studies in the US
New details are causing experts to fear that an “unethical” vaccine trial in Guinea-Bissau is the “prototype” for studies led by Robert F Kennedy Jr, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services and a long-time critic of vaccines. At the heart of US vaccine policy is an unlikely group of Danish researchers whose work on the health effects of vaccines has been called into question.
What else happened today:
US inflation remained steady at 2.4% in February, according to government data released on Wednesday, which provides an overview of the US economy before it was thrown into turmoil by the conflict between the US and Israel with Iran.
A Democrat won a special election for a seat in the House of Representatives in New Hampshire, overturning a Republican district won by Donald Trump and marking the latest in a series of 28 Democratic surprises that could lead to a wave of blue in the midterm elections.
Approximately 3,800 employees of JBS USA, the world’s largest meat producer, will go on strike on Monday in what will be the first strike in the industry in decades.
The appearance of a golden statue depicting Trump and Epstein as two doomed lovers from the film Titanic confronts Washington with an even darker mystery.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/12/trump-administration-news-updates-today
US intervention regarding mining in the Strait of Hormuz
The tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz
The United States has taken a firm stance against Iran’s placement of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing the major risks such actions pose to international security. The US’s main concern is protecting freedom of navigation in this strategic area, which is one of the most important maritime corridors for international oil traffic. The placement of mines would not only affect oil transport, but could destabilise the entire region, generating diplomatic tensions between Iran and other coastal states or states dependent on this energy flow. Furthermore, any disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would negatively affect the global flow of oil, with direct consequences for the world economy. A possible blockade or restriction of transport through this area could lead to a significant increase in oil prices and global economic tensions, exemplifying the Romanian proverb “where there is one, there is no power, where there are many, power grows”, underlining the importance of international cooperation in maintaining stability.
US military action
In response to the threat posed by sea mines, the US destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. This action was preceded by a warning from President Donald Trump to Iran, requesting that it not place explosive devices in this narrow maritime area. In response to this intervention, Iran issued an official statement condemning the US action and warning of possible retaliation, thus heightening tensions in the region.
Warnings and official requests
Following the destruction of 16 mine-laying vessels and heightened tensions in the area, the White House issued an official statement calling on Iran to remove any potential naval mines from the Strait of Hormuz without delay. This warning came shortly after a recent incident in which Iranian activities raised questions about the safety of navigation. The statement signed by the US president explicitly states that if the mines are laid and not removed, “the military consequences for Iran will be unprecedented,” underscoring the gravity of the situation and the US administration’s determination to protect freedom of navigation in this strategic area.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime routes for global oil transport, and tensions in the area can significantly affect global energy markets.
After repeated requests from the shipping industry for military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz, sources familiar with the situation told Reuters that the US Navy has so far refused these requests, which are almost daily. We note that Reuters is an international news agency, and the information comes from people close to the case, without mentioning their names.
In this context, the US military has begun looking for ways to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, if ordered to do so. “We are looking at a number of options there,” General Dan Caine told reporters at the Pentagon, stressing that the final decision depends on the instructions received.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt explained in a press conference that the United States has not yet escorted any oil tankers or ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This official response provides clarity on the actual actions taken by the US to date.
Subsequently, Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X on Tuesday that the US Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the channel. The post was later deleted, and a spokesperson for the Department of Energy said the video associated with the post had been removed due to incorrect subtitles. This correction highlights the fact that the information has not been officially confirmed.
Commenting on Wright’s remarks, a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards denied that an oil tanker had been escorted. According to Iranian state media, Ali Mohammad Naini said, “Any movement by the American fleet and its allies will be stopped by our missiles and drones.” It is important to note that Iranian state media reflects the official position of the authorities in Tehran, but the information may be influenced by local political interests.
Maritime Security Forum
The rise of President Putin’s powers in terms of foreign military interventions – Maritime Security Forum
Proposed legislative changes
The government commission for legislative activity has approved a draft amendment aimed at expanding President Vladimir Putin’s powers regarding the use of the Russian Federation’s armed forces in operations carried out on the territory of other states.
According to the draft law, quoted by Interfax, the Russian president will now be able to use the armed forces “extraterritorially” to “defend citizens of the Russian Federation” in situations of “arrest, detention, prosecution and other forms of persecution” abroad.
These provisions refer in particular to cases where Russian citizens are arrested by courts “empowered without the participation of the Russian Federation” and by international judicial bodies that Russia does not recognise. The draft law amends the laws “On Citizenship” and “On Defence” and was drafted by the Ministry of Defence.
Current legislative context
In accordance with Article X of the federal law “On Security”, the President of the Russian Federation has the right to send troops abroad when decisions taken by countries or international bodies are considered “contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation” or “the foundations of public order” in Russia. For example, in 2014, the President of the Russian Federation invoked a similar provision to justify sending troops to Crimea, arguing that the actions of Ukraine and certain international bodies endangered Russia’s national interests.
Reasons for the legislative changes
The emergence of this bill is closely linked to initiatives by European Union member states to create a special tribunal to try Russia. Last summer, the Council of Europe announced the formation of a tribunal with jurisdiction to try the leadership of the Russian Federation for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. By the autumn of the same year, 26 EU countries had confirmed their participation in this tribunal, inspired by the model of the Nuremberg Tribunal, which tried the leaders of Nazi Germany after the Second World War. In January 2023, the European Union allocated the first €10 million for the tribunal’s operation, with the aim of holding at least 20 people from the Russian Federation’s leadership accountable. Holding them accountable involves investigating and prosecuting Russian leaders for decisions and actions that led to the aggression against Ukraine, involving criminal sanctions and international restrictions, including possible arrest warrants. The legal impact of the tribunal lies in strengthening international law norms and setting a precedent for holding states accountable to the global community. Politically, the initiative has generated mixed reactions: Russia has firmly rejected the legitimacy of the tribunal, considering it a political tool, while the US, Canada and most European states have welcomed the move as necessary to maintain international order and deter future acts of aggression. This context reflects current geopolitical tensions and the EU’s determination to promote legal accountability at the global level.
Reactions and geopolitical context
The Russian authorities’ decision to extend the president’s powers regarding the use of the army abroad comes amid several recent warnings issued in recent months by key NATO states such as the United States, Germany and France. These warnings signalled that Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with one or more European countries, suggesting that the risk of military escalation on the European continent is increasing.
Last summer, the head of the German intelligence service BND warned of the risk of a Russian provocation in the Baltic states along the lines of the annexation of Crimea, and in February, the Danish intelligence service estimated that Russia could start a large-scale war in Europe within the next five years. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte supported these conclusions in June, noting the likelihood of an attack within the same time frame. Similarly, the Chief of the French General Staff, General Fabien Mandon, stressed in October the need to prepare for a conflict with Russia in the next 3-4 years.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the “zero phase” of preparation for such a war in Russia has already begun, pointing to the reorganisation of military districts on the western border, the creation of military bases on the border with Finland, as well as acts of sabotage, electronic warfare interference, GPS jamming, fires and provocations in the air.
Maritime Security Forum
Electronic interference in the Strait of Hormuz: maritime risks and implications – Maritime Security Forum
Manifestation of interference and impact on navigation
On 10 March, MarineTraffic reported abnormal ship trajectories in the Strait of Hormuz on digital maps, with ships appearing to move on land as a result of complex electronic interference. The phenomenon was caused by the transmission of false or distorted signals to automatic identification systems (AIS), generated both by jamming devices installed on the coast and by improperly operated on-board equipment or deliberate actions by state or non-state actors in the region. Unlike conventional jamming, this interference involves altering the GPS coordinates of ships, so that the reported positions become completely erroneous and do not reflect reality. A recent incident clearly illustrated the risks: a commercial vessel reported an erroneous position, which led to the activation of emergency procedures by port authorities, highlighting the need for increased monitoring and validation of navigation data.
Risks to ships, crews and the maritime industry
The risks associated with these distortions are considerable. Erroneous data can cause accidental collisions between ships or with port infrastructure, prevent the avoidance of natural obstacles and increase the risk of grounding, endangering the safety of crews and cargo. The AIS system, which is used to monitor the position and movement of ships at sea, becomes vulnerable to data falsification, complicating the work of maritime and energy analysis companies and generating operational and financial uncertainties. A relevant example occurred in 2021, when the manipulation of AIS data led to the damage of a commercial vessel and its collision with port infrastructure. These incidents highlight the vulnerability of modern navigation to electronic interference and underscore the need for enhanced signal protection and validation measures.
Solutions and adaptations in the industry
The evolution of this phenomenon has prompted maritime authorities to warn that AIS data in the area can no longer be considered reliable. Electronic interference leads to the appearance of fictitious routes on digital maps, which do not correspond to reality, due to altered or distorted signals. To avoid incidents, it is recommended to prioritise the use of radar and visual navigation, methods that allow direct verification of the position of ships without relying on electronic data. Companies such as Kpler have introduced advanced protocols for filtering erroneous signals and identifying false crossings, and industry firms such as Lloyd’s List Intelligence and VesselsValue are investing in data validation technologies and training crews to recognise compromised signals. A specific incident in 2023, when a commercial vessel reported the loss of its AIS signal near Port X, led to a difficult collision avoidance manoeuvre and triggered further investigations into the source of the interference.
Long-term implications
The increasing frequency of such electronic interference risks seriously affecting maritime safety and the shipping industry, leading to stricter international regulations and major investments in navigation data protection technologies. These measures are essential to prevent accidents and ensure safe maritime transport, given the increasing vulnerabilities caused by electronic interference with modern navigation systems.
Maritime Security Forum
NATO’s possible involvement in the conflict with Iran. Article 5 and geopolitical dilemmas: Germany’s perspective – Maritime Security Forum
In recent months, the geopolitical context in the Middle East has become increasingly tense, against a backdrop of growing rivalries between Iran and Western states. The recent incident, in which a ballistic missile allegedly launched from Iran was intercepted near a NATO member country, is part of a series of events that include attacks on regional energy infrastructure – refineries, oil terminals and pipelines – directly affecting European and global energy security. These actions have prompted Western states to step up their monitoring and reassess their deterrence and collective defence strategies.
Germany, along with other allies, is carefully considering whether the North Atlantic Alliance should become directly involved in the conflict with Iran, given the seriousness of the missile incident and its implications for regional security. According to reports, the missile was aimed at a NATO member country, raising concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict and the vulnerability of strategic infrastructure.
Dr Markus Kaim, a security analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), believes that this incident could formally justify invoking Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Article 5 stipulates that an attack against one or more members of the Alliance is considered an attack against all, which would lead to a collective response. The consultation procedure provided for in Article 5 involves convening an extraordinary meeting of the North Atlantic Council, where representatives of the member states analyse the circumstances and decide on the measures to be taken, based on consensus.
Invoking Article 5 would have major political and military consequences. On the one hand, it would demonstrate the allies’ solidarity and commitment to collective security, but on the other hand, it could rapidly escalate regional tensions and involve NATO in a direct conflict with Iran. Historically, the precedent of 11 September 2001 – when Article 5 was invoked for the first and only time, following the terrorist attacks in the US – showed that the decision to activate this mechanism requires a thorough risk assessment and extensive consultation among member states. Other experts, such as Prof. Claudia Major (SWP) and Dr. Ulrich Kühn (Institute for Foreign Policy Studies), point out that invoking Article 5 should be a last resort, as it could generate a crisis of major proportions and long-term implications for regional and international stability.
In conclusion, the debate on NATO’s involvement in the conflict with Iran and the invocation of Article 5 reflects the complexity of the strategic dilemmas in the current geopolitical context. Consultations within the North Atlantic Council are essential to ensure a balanced approach that avoids escalation of the conflict and maintains stability in the region. The final decision will depend on the consensus of the allies and the assessment of risks, taking into account both NATO solidarity and the need to prevent a major crisis with global impact.
Maritime Security Forum
Japan commissions fifth Taigei-class submarine, JS Chōgei, for more discreet patrols in the Indo-Pacific
Japan commissioned its fifth Taigei-class submarine, JS Chōgei (SS 517), on 10 March 2026, during a handover ceremony at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe shipyard.
Japan commissioned its fifth Taigei-class submarine, JS Chōgei (SS 517), on 10 March 2026, during a handover ceremony at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe shipyard. The diesel-electric submarine will enter operational service in Division 2 of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF), based at Yokosuka Naval Base.
The JS Chogei has a standard displacement of approximately 3,000 tonnes and measures 84 metres in overall length, with a width of 9.1 metres and a draught of 10.4 metres, placing it slightly larger than the previous Soryu-class submarines. (Image source: MHI)
On 10 March 2026, the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) received its fifth Taigei-class diesel-electric submarine, JS Chogei (SS 517), during a delivery ceremony held at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries shipyard in Kobe. The submarine is part of a planned series of eight submarines ordered to renew Japan’s conventional submarine fleet and is scheduled to enter operational service in March 2026. The ship’s construction was funded under Japan’s fiscal year 2021 defence budget, with a programme cost of 64.8 billion yen, equivalent to $443 million. Upon delivery, the vessel joined Submarine Division 2 of Submarine Flotilla 2 and was assigned to Yokosuka Naval Base in Kanagawa Prefecture.
The submarine is the third Japanese vessel to bear the name Chogei, after a former Imperial Japanese Navy transport ship and a submarine tender. In Japanese naval naming practice, submarines of this class bear the suffix “gei,” meaning whale, continuing a naming sequence after the previous “shio” and “ryu” series used for earlier generations. The name Taigei itself means “big whale,” while Chogei translates to “long whale.” The Taigei class was developed as the successor to the Soryu class ships, which have formed the backbone of the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s submarine fleet since 2009. This new generation of diesel-electric submarines also introduces updated propulsion systems, new sensor technology and improvements in acoustic stealth characteristics.
Eight submarines are planned for the class, although the number could increase depending on future defence requirements, particularly in the waters around the Japanese archipelago and the wider Indo-Pacific region. JS Chōgei is the second Taigei-class submarine delivered by Kobe Shipyard, following JS Jingei in March 2024, as part of a production sequence shared between Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, both of which have submarine construction facilities in Kobe. This two-shipyard approach supports continuous production capacity and preserves industrial expertise related to submarine design and assembly in Japan. The lead submarine, JS Taigei (SS 513), entered service in March 2022, followed by JS Hakugei (SS 514) in March 2023 and JS Jingei (SS 515) in March 2024.
The fourth unit, JS Raigei (SS 516), was launched in October 2023 and is scheduled to enter service in March 2025 after acceptance trials. Starting in 2026, the sixth submarine of the class, JS Sōgei (SS 518), is under construction at the Kawasaki shipyard, while the seventh, SS 519, is being assembled by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. JS Chōgei incorporates a diesel-electric propulsion system supported by lithium-ion batteries as the primary source of stored electrical power for underwater operations. Previous units of the class used two Kawasaki 12V 25/25SB diesel engines as their main engines, while later submarines, including Raigei and Chogei, are equipped with more powerful Kawasaki 12V 25/31 diesel engines, compatible with a newly developed snorkel system designed to improve power generation efficiency when operating near the surface.
The propulsion system now provides an estimated shaft power of approximately 6,000 horsepower, allowing the submarine to reach submerged speeds exceeding 20 knots. Lithium-ion batteries supplied by Kyoto-based manufacturer GS Yuasa offer higher energy density than the traditional lead-acid batteries used in previous conventional submarines, allowing for longer underwater endurance and reducing the frequency of snorkelling required to recharge the battery banks. Japan became the first country to implement such lithium-ion battery technology in operational diesel-electric submarines when the last two Soryu-class submarines, Oryu (SS 511) and Toryu (SS 512), introduced this system.
The electricity stored in the battery system powers the submarine while it is submerged, while the diesel engines run to recharge the batteries when the vessel uses its snorkel mast near the surface. Compared to previous Soryu-class submarines, the Taigei class introduces several improvements to increase sonar detection capability and reduce acoustic emissions produced by the hull and onboard machinery. A lower acoustic signature remains a central factor in submarine survivability and operational effectiveness during underwater operations. The JS Chōgei submarine has a standard displacement of approximately 3,000 tonnes and a length of 84 metres, with a width of 9.1 metres and a draught of 10.4 metres.
These dimensions place it slightly above previous Soryu-class submarines, which have a displacement of approximately 2,950 tonnes, but still correspond to the overall size of modern diesel-electric attack submarines used for patrol missions. The hull adopts a cigar-shaped configuration introduced in Japanese submarines starting with the Oyashio class and retained throughout the Soryu and Taigei generations. Early Japanese submarines, up to the Harushio class, used a teardrop-shaped hull design before switching to a cylindrical shape, optimised for underwater cruising performance. The control surfaces at the stern follow an X-shaped rudder configuration adopted starting with the Soryu class, replacing the previous cross-shaped arrangement.
This configuration improves underwater manoeuvrability and reduces the risk of structural damage when the submarine operates in shallow waters and the rudders touch the seabed. The structural design also incorporates high-strength steel and sound-absorbing materials to reduce detectability during underwater operations. The Taigei class incorporates an integrated combat management system, which includes the OYX-1 processing system, the ZQX-12 tactical display system for submarines, and the ZQQ-8 sonar system using fibre optic array technology. Additional onboard equipment includes the NZLR-2 electronic support measures system used for detecting electronic emissions and the ZPS-6H radar system used for periscope depth or surface operations.
The sonar configuration combines bow-mounted arrays, flank-mounted sensors, and towed sensors located behind the submarine to detect targets in different thermal layers. This configuration allows for improved detection of surface ships and other submarines in complex acoustic environments. The design also incorporates an internally developed non-penetrating periscope developed by Mitsubishi Electric. The non-penetrating design eliminates the need for a physical periscope shaft to penetrate the pressure hull and electronically transmits visual data to internal displays. The submarine’s weaponry includes the Type 18 heavy torpedo, which replaces the previous Type 89 torpedo used by the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force.
The Type 18 incorporates improvements in propulsion performance, target detection capability, and onboard processing. The submarine can also launch UGM-84L Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles from its torpedo tubes for engagements against surface vessels. These missiles have a range of approximately 248 kilometres and give the the ability to strike ships beyond visual range. Defensive systems include anti-torpedo countermeasures that use acoustic decoys designed to replicate the sonar signature of the submarine’s propeller to divert approaching torpedoes. The same countermeasure system had previously been introduced on later Soryu-class vessels, such as the Sekiryu. Japan is also developing a submarine-launched cruise missile derived from the Surface-to-Ship Type 12 missile, with an estimated range of approximately 1,500 kilometres.
Construction of the JS Chōgei began with the keel laying on 19 April 2022 at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe Shipyard, located in Hyogo Prefecture. The submarine was launched on 4 October 2024, marking the transition from the structural assembly stage to the outfitting and testing phase. In the post-launch period, shipyard teams installed systems on board, integrated propulsion components, and conducted in-port trials prior to sea trials. Sea trials are used to verify the performance of propulsion, navigation systems, sensors, and combat systems under operational conditions. Once these tests confirmed that the submarine met the required performance standards, the vessel proceeded to final delivery to the Ministry of Defence.
The handover on 10 March 2026 concluded a construction schedule that lasted nearly four years, from keel laying to commissioning. This timeline reflects the complexity of modern submarine construction and the extensive integration work required prior to operational deployment. The submarine, which is operated by a crew of approximately 70, incorporates changes to the internal structure to accommodate female personnel within the crew. Restrictions on the assignment of female members of Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force to submarines have been lifted in recent years, leading to adjustments in the design of new vessels entering service.
To support mixed crews, partitions have been installed in the living quarters to create a dedicated sleeping area for female sailors. Curtains have also been installed along the corridor leading to the shower room to ensure privacy in the accommodation areas. These changes were integrated into the design phase and were not modified after construction. The changes reflect adjustments to personnel policies within the Japan Defence Forces and are intended to allow female crew members to operate aboard submarines while maintaining adequate facilities on board.
Similar arrangements are expected to appear in other submarines built under the same class. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries manages defence equipment activities, covering land, sea and air systems, under an integrated organisational structure designed to share engineering expertise across different sectors. In the field of shipbuilding, the company is responsible for the design, engineering and assembly of advanced submarines and surface vessels for the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force. The company also supports maintenance and sustainment activities after ships enter service to maintain operational readiness. Development efforts within naval programmes include reducing crew requirements, integrating unmanned systems, cybersecurity resilience and reducing life-cycle costs. These research directions reflect broader trends in naval engineering and defence procurement priorities. As additional units are completed and commissioned, the Taigei class will represent a significant portion of Japan’s operational submarine fleet for decades to come.
Source: here
North Korea tests naval cruise missiles from new destroyer to advance sea attack capability
North Korea launched several cruise missiles from its newest destroyer in a second sea test in a week, with Kim Jong Un monitoring from a distance. The launch underscores Pyongyang’s efforts to develop long-range maritime strike capabilities that could complicate regional missile defence.
North Korea has conducted another launch of naval cruise missiles from its new destroyer, marking the second such test in a week as Pyongyang accelerates the development of sea-based strike systems. According to state media reports, leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch remotely via video link as multiple cruise missiles were fired from the warship. The missiles reportedly remained in flight for approximately 169 minutes before striking designated island targets used as impact ranges. The test appears to be aimed at validating the ship’s ability to conduct long-range cruise missile missions from the sea, a capability that would extend North Korea’s operational range and add a naval component to its growing missile arsenal.
North Korea tests cruise missiles from its new Choe Hyon-class destroyer during a weapons test, demonstrating an emerging long-range sea-based strike capability for the Korean People’s Navy. (Image source: North Korea News Agency)
The launch was reported on 11 March 2026 by NK News and follows another missile launch earlier in March during initial weapons tests aboard the same ship. The repeated testing cycle indicates that North Korea is rapidly validating the combat systems of its newest, largest modern destroyer, which represents a significant upgrade for the Korean People’s Navy.
According to NK News, six cruise missiles were launched in the latest test sequence. These missiles followed a long-range flight profile typical of ground-attack cruise missiles designed to avoid radar detection. Although detailed technical specifications have not been disclosed, North Korea has previously revealed cruise missile systems such as the Hwasal series, which analysts believe could have ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometres, depending on configuration and payload.
The launches were carried out from North Korea’s newly introduced destroyer, identified by external analysts as the Choe Hyon, a warship estimated to have a displacement of approximately 5,000 tonnes. The ship is believed to be the largest and most modern surface combatant ever used by the Korean People’s Navy. Unlike the navy’s traditional fleet of small missile boats and ageing patrol vessels, the new destroyer appears designed to integrate multiple guided weapon systems, including cruise missiles and, potentially, anti-ship strike capabilities, signalling Pyongyang’s intention to develop a more capable naval element in the open seas.
Kim Jong Un’s remote supervision of the launch also highlights an evolving command and control structure for missile operations. Instead of attending the test site in person, Kim reportedly observed the launch via a real-time video link from a command facility before authorising the launch sequence. Such procedures suggest that North Korea is experimenting with distributed command arrangements that allow strategic leadership to monitor and approve missile launches without being present at operational units.
North Korean state media described the missiles used in the test as “strategic cruise missiles” — a term analysts often associate with missiles that could carry nuclear warheads or other weapons of mass destruction over long distances. However, the specific configuration of the missiles launched from the destroyer has not been publicly confirmed. Nevertheless, the characterisation aligns with Pyongyang’s broader strategy of diversifying delivery platforms or different methods of launching strategic weapons from land, sea and, potentially, submarines.
The introduction of a destroyer capable of cruise missiles represents a significant development for the Korean People’s Navy, which has historically been structured primarily for coastal defence and asymmetric maritime operations. A larger surface combatant equipped with long-range guided weapons would allow North Korea to project strike capability from mobile maritime platforms operating in the Sea of Japan or the Yellow Sea. Such mobility could complicate the surveillance and targeting efforts of South Korean, Japanese, and American forces compared to fixed land-based missile launchers.
The timing of the tests coincides with heightened regional tensions related to ongoing military exercises between the US and South Korea. Pyongyang routinely condemns these exercises as rehearsals for invasion. North Korea frequently responds to these exercises with weapons demonstrations intended to signal deterrence capability and political resolve.
Operationally, the rapid succession of missile launches suggests that North Korea is in the final stages of evaluating the destroyer’s combat systems. These include launch reliability, missile guidance performance, and command authorisation procedures. If the testing campaign continues successfully, the new warship could soon enter operational service. It could become a central component of Pyongyang’s expanding maritime strike force.
The emergence of a modern destroyer capable of launching long-range cruise missiles reflects a broader naval modernisation effort led by Kim Jong Un in recent years. In addition to work on ballistic missile submarines and submarine-launched missile systems, the development of advanced surface combatants indicates that North Korea is seeking to diversify its strategic strike architecture and complicate regional defence planning by introducing a wider range of mobile launch platforms.
North Korea’s latest cruise missile launches from its new destroyer signal a notable shift in the Korean People’s Navy toward mobile sea-based strike capabilities. By testing long-range cruise missiles from a surface combatant, Pyongyang is expanding its ability to conduct precision strikes from maritime platforms, which could complicate detection and interception by regional missile defence systems. If operationalised, such ships would provide North Korea with a more flexible launch platform compared to fixed land-based sites. The development also reflects Kim Jong Un’s broader strategy to diversify strategic delivery systems across land, sea and, potentially, submarine platforms, increasing the resilience and unpredictability of the country’s missile forces in any future regional crisis.
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China’s Jilin-1 satellite constellation turns the US-Iran war into a global intelligence laboratory — Beijing records every Washington war tactic from orbit
China’s Jilin-1 satellite constellation is reportedly monitoring US military operations in the US-Iran conflict as part of Operation Epic Fury, recording aircraft positioning, missile trajectories, and logistical movements that could shape the future war doctrine of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
High-resolution commercial satellite imagery released by China’s MizarVision has revealed the location of the US MIM-104F Patriot PAC-3 air defence system near an F-16 multi-role fighter jet at Shaikh Isa Air Base, Bahrain, highlighting a significant improvement in Washington’s air defence posture in the Persian Gulf.
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The intensifying conflict between the US, Israel and Iran in Operation Epic Fury has unexpectedly turned the West Asian battlefield into a strategic intelligence laboratory for Beijing through China’s Jilin-1 Earth observation satellite network.
The development comes as the large-scale satellite constellation systematically records the pattern of US operations, creating an archive of war data that analysts say has the potential to influence the operational doctrine of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army for a very long time.
The latest images and analytical assessments show the Jilin-1 constellation, operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., recording key elements of the conflict, including attack patterns, aircraft positioning, missile trajectories and logistics cycles in near real time.
China’s Jilin-1 satellite constellation, operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., is now becoming a key tool in observing the evolution of the US-Iran conflict, through a network of high-frequency ground observations that allows for near-continuous monitoring of military operations in West Asia.
The strategic value of monitoring has increased sharply after US officials, including Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, accused China of facilitating Iranian attacks with information obtained from commercial satellite monitoring of Washington’s military activities in the region.
Although Beijing rejects this claim, insisting that the images collected by Chinese companies are only commercial Earth observation activities, the density and response capabilities of the Jilin-1 network nevertheless create unprecedented monitoring coverage in West Asia.
For Chinese strategic planners, the current US-Iran confrontation offers an extraordinary opportunity to examine the pace of US operations, force posture, and logistical architecture, thereby shaping a new picture for future anti-access and area denial strategies.
The Jilin-1 constellation enables continuous monitoring of US combat operations
China’s Jilin-1 satellite constellation, operated by Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., is now becoming a key tool in observing the evolution of the US-Iran conflict through a network of high-frequency ground observation that allows near-continuous monitoring of military operations in West Asia.
The scale of the constellation allows Chinese analysts to conduct continuous monitoring frequently enough to reconstruct operational timelines, thus tracking changes in US force postings, aircraft activities, and logistical movements during active military campaigns.
Satellite images published by Chinese companies and related analysis platforms show detailed deployments of US F-22 fighter jets to air bases such as Ovda in Israel and Al Udeid in Qatar in the early stages of the conflict.
Additional images also record the movement of key US naval assets, including the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, demonstrating the Jilin-1 network’s ability to monitor maritime power projections in real time as the carrier strike group changes its regional positions.
By repeatedly analysing satellite trajectories in the same location, Chinese observers were able to reconstruct ammunition loading patterns, combat flight cycles and ground support operations, then transform isolated fragments of intelligence data into structured datasets about US expeditionary warfare mechanisms.
This analytical capability is particularly valuable because it allows the reconstruction of the pace of operations, thus showing how quickly the US military responds to Iranian missile launches or escalating crises, as well as the rate of relocation of air power assets between bases.
Images distributed through platforms linked to Chinese satellite companies such as MizarVision also show the number of aircraft, anti-missile batteries and other military assets at the facility, which will then be targeted by Iranian attacks in the next phase.
Examples distributed on social media also show the satellite’s global coverage, including images of observations from Atlanta Airport and Diego Garcia Naval Base, reinforcing the idea that Jilin-1’s monitoring extends far beyond the borders of the conflict in West Asia.
The strategic impact of such monitoring lies not only in the imagery, but in the accumulated data sets resulting from repeated observations that gradually reveal how the United States is building its chain of destruction, supply cycle, and defence response during active warfare.
For Chinese military analysts studying US operational behaviour, the Jilin-1 constellation has effectively turned the US-Iran conflict into a direct demonstration of combat doctrine, operational flexibility and logistics of American expeditions for in-depth analysis.
It is said that Iranian missiles received technical assistance in targeting from China.
China’s layered monitoring network extends visibility on the battlefield
Although the Jilin-1 constellation was the most important component of China’s monitoring architecture during the US-Iran conflict, analysts argue that it actually operates within a broader network of intelligence gathering on orbital, maritime and navigation platforms.
Key supporting systems include China’s Yaogan series of satellites, a group of military reconnaissance platforms equipped with radar imaging and signal intelligence capabilities for collecting electronic beams and tracking military activities over a vast geographical area.
Combining Yaogan satellite imagery with Jilin-1 optical imagery allows Chinese analysts to connect signals intelligence with visual surveys, resulting in a layered understanding of operational patterns such as radar activation cycles, missile launches, and fighter jet positioning.
Another key element of the monitoring ecosystem is the BeiDou satellite navigation system, which Iran reportedly uses as an alternative to US-controlled GPS signals to increase the resilience of its missile guidance against American electronic warfare interference.
The integration of BeiDou navigation with Iranian missile operations demonstrates how satellite infrastructure can influence battlefield dynamics, particularly when it provides alternative positioning and directional capabilities in environments prone to traditional signal interference.
Beyond orbital assets, China’s monitoring activities also cover maritime platforms, including the Liaowang-1 reconnaissance ship operating in the Gulf of Oman, capable of tracking missile launches and satellite trajectories while transmitting observation data to analysts on the mainland.
The presence of such maritime reconnaissance vessels complements satellite coverage by providing additional tracking capabilities during missile launches or other events that may occur within the orbital observation window limited by the satellite’s position.
This multi-layered observation network thus creates a monitoring architecture capable of capturing missile trajectories, aircraft operations and logistical movements from various angles, thereby strengthening China’s ability to reconstruct in detail the operational environment of the US-Iran conflict.
Historical precedent shows that such a pattern of observation has already occurred in regional conflicts, including the monitoring of Houthi military operations in 2025, when satellite imagery was used to analyse targeting patterns and developments on the battlefield.
The expansion of China’s monitoring capabilities also extends beyond battlefield observation to actual orbital monitoring, as demonstrated by the September 2025 incident when the Jilin-1 satellite captured images of the US WorldView Legion reconnaissance satellite in space.
Alleged exchange of information between China and Iran
A major source of controversy surrounding Jilin-1’s monitoring efforts has centred on claims that satellite data collected by Chinese systems is shared with Iranian forces, thereby enhancing Tehran’s ability to track US settlements and plan a response.
Various reports suggest that imagery and analytical data from the Jilin-1 and Yaogan satellites could provide Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with coordinates and situational awareness related to US naval vessels, military bases, and aircraft carrier strike groups in the region.
Such information would allow Iranian planners to monitor changes in US air defence deployments, aircraft clusters and naval asset movements, thereby reducing uncertainty about Washington’s operational intentions as the confrontation escalates.
If the allegations are correct, sharing such information could significantly alter the strategic balance of the conflict, as the movement of American forces would become more transparent to Iranian commanders, making it more difficult for Washington to maintain a critical element of operational deception.
Satellite imagery is also being used to assist Iran-aligned groups such as the Houthi movement, highlighting the potential of commercial Earth observation data to influence the conflict beyond the traditional framework of warfare between the two countries.
Among the evidence often cited by analysts is the 2025 US bypass of Chinese communications equipment linked to Houthi forces, raising the possibility of technological cooperation between Chinese systems and Iranian proxy networks.
The alleged sharing of information becomes even more important because Iran not only accesses satellite imagery from China, but also uses the Russian Earth observation satellite Kanopus-V, thus forming a hybrid intelligence architecture that combines multiple international sources.
However, despite the availability of Russian image feeds, analysts believe that China’s system is more dominant in terms of high-resolution optical imagery and rapid revisit rates, making it more valuable for tracking evolving military situations.
The United States has responded to this development by accusing China of indirectly facilitating Iran’s military actions by providing satellite intelligence, an accusation that Beijing has categorically rejected, insisting that the monitoring is purely commercial.
The discrepancy between Washington’s accusations and Beijing’s denials underscores how complicated it is to distinguish commercial satellite activity from strategic intelligence cooperation in an era when high-resolution Earth observation technology is increasingly accessible to various parties.
The value of strategic information for China’s military research
Despite the immediate tactical implications of the US-Iran conflict, analysts argue that the true strategic significance of China’s satellite monitoring lies in the long-term intelligence value contained in the operational data collected during the war.
Through systematic observations of US combat operations, the Jilin-1 constellation allows Chinese analysts to reconstruct what some experts describe as a “practical encyclopaedia” of US warfare tactics, from the air strike cycle to logistical supply patterns.
Such datasets have the potential to provide invaluable insights into the structure of the US chain of destruction, command and control processes, and the chronology of operational decisions, thus revealing the internal dynamics of American expeditionary warfare in real-world conflict situations.
In the long term, these observations could contribute to the development of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s new operational doctrine, which focuses in particular on efforts to limit the projected power capabilities of the United States in the Western Pacific and South China Sea.
The information obtained from satellite monitoring also has the potential to improve China’s understanding of how the United States manages a multi-domain warfare environment by integrating air power, missile defence systems, naval deployments and logistical infrastructure in a coordinated manner.
For planners in China’s defence institutions, the US-Iran conflict represents an unexpected opportunity to assess the performance of American military systems under real operational pressures without having to engage in a direct confrontation with Washington.
Analysts believe that the intelligence archives resulting from observations could influence China’s strategic planning for decades, including the design of anti-access and area denial strategies to limit future US operational freedoms.
The ability to monitor the US response to Iranian missile attacks and escalating regional crises also provides insight into how Washington adjusts its force posture and defensive deployment in the face of evolving threats.
Such observations could be invaluable in building a model of conflict scenarios involving US forces in the Indo-Pacific, as China seeks to understand the timeline of deployments and the speed of response of US expeditionary forces in a regional war.
Therefore, the strategic value of China’s satellite monitoring efforts lies not only in real-time information, but also in the long-term analytical framework it is building to understand the operational behaviour of the world’s most powerful armed forces.
The democratisation of information and the erosion of secrecy on the battlefield
The use of commercial satellite constellations such as Jilin-1 during the US-Iran conflict reflects a broader shift in global information dynamics, which analysts often describe as the “democratisation of information” in an era of increasingly open competition between superpowers.
Advances in satellite technology have dramatically increased the availability of high-resolution imagery, allowing commercial companies to capture detailed views of military installations that were once only visible through confidential government surveillance platforms.
This technological shift has eroded the traditional secrecy surrounding military deployments, as images collected by private companies can now be widely distributed through open source intelligence networks and global social media platforms.
In the context of the US-Iran conflict, the dissemination of satellite imagery showing aircraft positioning, missile defence systems and naval asset movements has allowed independent analysts to reconstruct certain elements of the battlefield environment in near real time.
Transmissions spread through platforms such as X rapidly expand the coverage of these images, transforming satellite observations into widely accessible datasets capable of influencing public understanding of current military developments.
This open-source intelligence ecosystem creates both opportunities and risks, as the availability of satellite imagery can increase transparency but also expose operational weaknesses that were previously shielded from public and enemy scrutiny.
For the United States, the widespread deployment of satellite surveillance capabilities means that military planners must assume that troop movements and logistical activities may be visible to both adversaries and observers, thereby reducing the effectiveness of traditional camouflage strategies.
The implications are not limited to the conflict in West Asia, as similar monitoring capabilities can be applied to future crises in other regions, including the Indo-Pacific, a strategic space that brings Chinese and American military operations into close proximity.
Analysts argue that the proliferation of commercial satellite constellations is reshaping the global strategic environment, making military operations increasingly difficult to conduct without being detected from orbit by state actors or non-state observers.
As this technological transformation continues to accelerate, the main challenge for military planners around the world is to adapt operational doctrine to the new reality that transparency on the battlefield in space is increasingly difficult to achieve.
The US response and the limitations of orbital monitoring
Faced with the increasing visibility of its military operations in space, the United States has begun to adjust its force posture and operational behaviour to reduce the intelligence advantage gained from satellite monitoring of military activities in conflict zones.
One approach is to deploy military assets across multiple bases, with the aim of reducing the concentration of aircraft and equipment in a single location, which could clearly indicate the US’s level of operational readiness.
Other strategies involve the use of decoys and misleading placement patterns designed to make satellite imagery difficult to interpret, creating uncertainty about the exact location of military assets and the intentions of planned operations.
Despite countermeasures, analysts acknowledge that orbital monitoring remains a major challenge because satellite constellations with high revisit rates are capable of capturing frequent images that reveal gradual changes in operational activity.
The continuous nature of satellite coverage means that even small logistical movements, including the arrival of additional aircraft or the relocation of missile defence systems, can be detected over time through comparative image analysis.
The sanctions imposed by the United States on Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., the operator of the Jilin-1 constellation, represent another effort to limit the strategic impact of China’s satellite monitoring on Washington’s military operations in West Asia.
However, enforcing such restrictions has proven difficult because the satellite imagery industry is commercial in nature, while Earth observation data is distributed through a global network that exceeds the limits of any government’s direct control.
These limitations highlight the growing structural challenges for governments in controlling technologies that are now integrated into commercial markets, as well as international data networks that are growing in parallel with the demand for geospatial information.
As a result, the emergence of commercial satellite constellations has created a new strategic environment in which space observations are no longer controlled exclusively by national intelligence agencies, as was the case in previous eras.
The Jilin-1 constellation’s continuous monitoring of the US-Iran conflict ultimately shows a greater shift in global security dynamics, as the conflict between commercial technology and military operations changes the balance between secrecy, surveillance and strategic intelligence.
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Is China’s Type 055 a cruiser or a destroyer?
China’s MND announces that two additional Type 055 destroyers have been added to the PLAN’s surface fleet.
China has commissioned two more Type 055 warships into PLAN service. Credit: MND
- China commissions two new Type 055 guided missile destroyers, bringing the PLAN fleet of this type to ten vessels
- New Type 055 warships assigned to the PLA Eastern Theatre Command, strengthening China’s air defence capability on the high seas and power projection
- Debate over the size and firepower of the Type 055 “destroyer vs cruiser”: 180 m, 12,000+ tonnes, 100+ VLS cells; NATO classifies the Type 055 as a cruiser.
China has commissioned two new Type 055 guided missile destroyers (DDG) into the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), bringing its fleet of this type to ten, forming the modern backbone of the country’s blue-water power projection.
Announcing the move in a 9 March post, China’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) said the new warships had been named Dongguan (Hull 109) and Anqing (Hull 110), joining the ships Nanchang (Hull 101), Lhasa (Hull 102), Anshan (Hull 103), Wuxi (Hull 104), Dalian (Hull 105), Yan’an (Hull 106), Zunyi (Hull 107) and Xianyang (Hull 108) in service.
The two newly commissioned ships have been assigned to the Chinese PLA Eastern Theatre Command, the MND said.
By choosing the names Dongguan and Anqing, the PLAN continues its theme of naming its destroyers after major prefecture-level cities or larger. In contrast, PLAN frigates receive names aligned with county-level cities.
Unlikely and prestigious naval names, such as Anshan Anshan – which was the PLAN’s first major class of destroyers, being former Soviet Gnevny-class warships – the names Dongguan and Anqing are relatively standard and would simply fit a theme of “national representation”, their respective cities being located in the south and centre/east of the country.
Type 055: a Chinese Ticonderoga?
However, the MND’s description of the Type 055 as a 10,000-tonne class DDG is somewhat credible, with NATO considering warships one step above this classification.
Detailed in a 2024 publication by the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), Type 055 ships are listed as cruisers according to NATO, given that they measure 180 m in length and displace over 12,000 tonnes, and are designated by the Alliance as Renhai class
A naval silhouette of the PLAN’s Type 055 warship design, from the 2024 ONI report. Credit: ONI
The class could be built as a potential successor to the Type 052D DDGs and could include over 100 vertical launch system (VLS) cells housing a wide range of anti-aircraft and anti-surface weaponry.
The Type 055 DDG/CG is believed to fulfil a role similar to that of a US Navy Ticonderoga-class CG, capable of hosting command-level structures and delivering enormous kinetic firepower through multiple VLS clusters.
The debate over whether this class can be considered a DDG or a CG depends largely on different criteria and national doctrine.
China would not be alone in calling a warship over 10,000 tonnes a destroyer, with the US Navy using the same designation for its 15,000-tonne Zumwalt-class DDG, while its Flight III Arleigh Burke class destroyers will displace most of the 10,000 tonnes at full load.
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US CENTCOM confirms sinking of Iranian ships near the Strait of Hormuz
It appears that Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, although the activity is not yet widespread.
Iran has reportedly warned that ships associated with “aggressors” will not be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Credit: lavizzara/Shutterstock.com.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has reported the removal of several Iranian vessels, including 16 minelayers, near the Strait of Hormuz.
The announcement comes amid reports that Iran has begun laying mines in this strategic waterway, which carries about a fifth of the world’s crude oil supply.
CNN, citing two people with knowledge of US intelligence assessments, said Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, although only a few dozen have been laid in recent days and the scale of the activity remains limited.
CENTCOM’s statement follows a declaration by US President Donald Trump calling for the immediate removal of any mines in the area.
“If for any reason mines have been placed and are not immediately removed, the military consequences for Iran will be at a level never seen before. If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a huge step in the right direction!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
Trump later said that US forces had “struck and destroyed” 10 inactive boats and ships, adding that further action could follow.
Following the president’s statement, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said that “CENTCOM has eliminated inactive mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz — wiping them out with ruthless precision. We will not allow terrorists to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage.”
Meanwhile, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that vessels linked to what he called “aggressors” would be prevented from passing through the strait, claiming they had “no right” to transit, according to Iran International.
On 10 March 2026, CENTCOM revealed that its forces had targeted more than 5,000 locations in Iran in the first 10 days of a broader military campaign.
Previous statements by Defence Secretary Hegseth confirmed that a US submarine fired a torpedo at an Iranian warship off the southern coast of Sri Lanka on 3 March, causing it to sink.
In addition, CENTCOM reported that an initial attack struck the Iranian drone aircraft carrier Shahid Bagheri.
Source: here
Navantia prepares Avante 2200/ALFA 3000 for Croatian corvette programme
Navantia is committed to involving Croatian industry in the Navy’s future multi-role corvettes, including the delivery of two ships.
Navantia has proposed the Avante 2200/ALFA 3000 vessel as a candidate for the Croatian Navy’s Multirole Corvette programme, detailing plans for both technological and industrial cooperation with local companies.
The Spanish company announced these plans at an Industry Day organised at the Zagreb Chamber of Economy, which brought together over 50 representatives of Croatian companies, including several leading shipyards.
During the event, Navantia signed letters of intent with the ULJANIK Brodogradnja shipyard and the engineering and defence services provider NORTES BLUE, indicating steps towards future collaboration.
The Spanish Ambassador to Croatia, Jose Ramón García Hernandez, opened the event by expressing the Spanish government’s support and emphasising its confidence in Navantia’s proposal.
Navantia expressed its intention to extensively involve Croatian industry in the project if selected.
The proposal includes the delivery of two corvettes built to NATO standards, integrated logistics support packages, spare parts supply, training programmes for crew and maintenance personnel, simulators and support from the Spanish Navy.
The industrial plan envisages the participation of local shipyards, naval engineering firms and other Croatian companies in related sectors.
Navantia Europe Commercial Director Alfonso Valea said: “This Industry Day is an opportunity to maximise the integration of Croatian industry into our multi-role corvette proposal, a proven and operational ship. Our goal is to share technology, open up real opportunities in the supply chain and deliver operational value to the Croatian Navy from day one.
“Our offer reduces risk in terms of time and budget and positions us as the most suitable offer for the Croatian Navy.”
Croatia’s plan to acquire new corvettes was first reported by local daily Jutarnji in January 2025.
According to the report, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Ivan Anušić announced a major modernisation of the navy, centred on the acquisition of multi-purpose corvette-type vessels.
At the time of the report, Jutarnji quoted Minister Anušić as saying that the procurement procedure for a multifunctional corvette-class warship was already underway, marking “a new phase” in the transformation of the Croatian naval forces.
The programme is estimated to cost between €660 million and €1.6 billion.
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French E-3 and A330 MRTTs deploy to the Black Sea: Paris strengthens NATO surveillance on the eastern flank
Today, a French Air Force E-3F AWACS left Avord Air Base, while an A330 MRTT tanker aircraft took off from Istres, both heading east towards the Black Sea region. The two aircraft were tracked flying through northern Italy and the Balkans before entering Romanian airspace. The coordinated deployment suggests a new French airborne surveillance mission over the Black Sea, possibly conducted alongside fighter jets that may not appear in public tracking data.
At this moment, a French Air Force Boeing E-3F AWACS (reg. 36-CA – call sign FAF902) took off from Avord Air Base in central France and flew southeast over Europe towards Romania. At approximately the same time, an Airbus A330 MRTT (reg. F-UJCN – call sign FAF4091) took off from Istres Air Base in southern France and followed a similar trajectory.
Flight tracking data shows that the tanker and AWACS converge over the Balkans before continuing towards the Black Sea area, where NATO has significantly increased its airborne surveillance missions since the start of the war in Ukraine.
The presence of an A330 MRTT strongly suggests that other aircraft may be involved in the mission. Tankers typically support fighter escorts or extended surveillance operations, allowing combat aircraft to remain on station for longer periods.
Although no fighter jets were visible on tracking platforms, this is not unusual. Military aircraft involved in sensitive operations often fly with their transponders turned off or using modes that are not publicly visible.
A familiar pattern of NATO airborne surveillance
Airborne early warning aircraft, such as the E-3F, play a key role in monitoring the airspace along NATO’s eastern flank. Operating high above the battlefield, the aircraft can detect aircraft and missile activity hundreds of kilometres away and coordinate allied fighter patrols.
French deployments of this type have become more frequent in recent months as NATO members continue to maintain a persistent intelligence and surveillance posture over the Black Sea region.
The combination of an AWACS platform and a tanker suggests a mission designed for extended coverage, not a short patrol. Such deployments are often integrated with allied assets already operating from Romania, Bulgaria, or the eastern Mediterranean.
It remains unclear whether this specific mission is related to recent regional developments or is part of NATO’s routine monitoring, but the scale of the support resources involved suggests a broader operational framework.
Strategic context
The Black Sea has become one of the most closely monitored airspaces in Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine. NATO surveillance aircraft regularly patrol international airspace near the region to track Russian activity, monitor missile launches and maintain situational awareness along the alliance’s eastern border.
France’s participation in these missions highlights Paris’s continued commitment to NATO’s deterrence posture and its growing role in allied airborne surveillance operations.
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NATO AWACS patrol over Turkey after Iranian missile interception highlights Alliance’s early warning posture
A NATO E-3B Sentry AWACS aircraft has been operating over eastern Turkey in recent hours, providing surveillance air cover in the same region where an Iranian missile was intercepted on 9 March. The aircraft, with the call sign NATO27, flew over central and eastern Turkey before conducting orbits near the Syrian border. The mission highlights the role of NATO’s airborne early warning assets in monitoring regional escalation and coordinating Allied situational awareness.
The aircraft involved, a Boeing E-3B Sentry (registration LX-N90443), is part of NATO’s E-3 component based in Geilenkirchen, Germany, and is currently operating from Konya Air Base in central Turkey. These aircraft are designed to provide long-range radar surveillance, track aircraft and missile activity, and support air defence coordination among allied forces.
Monitoring the airspace of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East
Flight tracking data shows that the aircraft crossed central Turkey before reaching the eastern part of the country, where it performed surveillance patterns. This area is of strategic h e significance: it lies between the eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Iraq and the western approaches to Iran, making it a key observation point during periods of heightened tension.
The timing of the mission is particularly noteworthy. It comes shortly after the interception of an Iranian missile on 9 March in southern Turkey, an event that has further heightened military alert levels in several allied countries operating in the Middle East.
In this context, AWACS aircraft play a vital role. Their powerful radar can detect and track aircraft and missile launches at long ranges, while also acting as airborne command nodes capable of coordinating fighter jets, tankers and surveillance assets across a wide operational area.
A broader surveillance network
The NATO E-3B flight likely operated as part of a broader intelligence and surveillance architecture currently active throughout the region. In recent days, multiple ISR platforms — including high-altitude drones, maritime patrol aircraft, and reconnaissance aircraft — have been observed monitoring developments related to the escalating confrontation involving Iran.
Airborne early warning aircraft, such as the E-3B, provide a key layer within this network. By maintaining persistent radar coverage from the secure airspace of NATO territory, they can monitor activity deep into surrounding regions without directly entering contested areas.
The presence of an AWACS over eastern Turkey also signals NATO’s continued attention to the evolving security environment along the Alliance’s south-eastern flank, particularly at a time when missile activity and military deployments in the Middle East appear to be increasing.
It remains to be seen whether further NATO surveillance flights will follow in the coming days, but today’s observed mission confirms that Allied early warning assets are actively monitoring developments in one of the most sensitive airspaces currently linked to the crisis.
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French Navy FREMM frigate wins US Navy’s Hook ‘Em award again
CECLANT photo showing two Aquitaine-class FREMM frigates and an NH90 NFH helicopter.
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The French Navy (Marine Nationale) FREMM frigate Aquitaine has won the US Navy’s “Hook’em” award. This marks the fifth time that the US 6th Fleet has awarded this prize to a French unit for its ability to find and track submarines (and the fourth time to a FREMM frigate).
The “Hook’em” award recognises excellence in Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW). It is awarded quarterly to a unit supporting the US Navy’s Sixth Fleet (also known as US Naval Forces Europe) that has demonstrated superior ASW readiness, competence and operational impact.
Vice Admiral Frederick C. Turner established the “Hook ‘Em” award in December 1975 to recognise ships, submarines and aircraft squadrons of the 6th Fleet that demonstrate ASW excellence. The award was discontinued two decades later, but was reinstated by Admiral James G. Foggo III in 2016 during his tenure as commander of the US 6th Fleet.
This award for excellence was presented in Naples by Commodore Doug Sattler (CTF 69) to the commander of FREMM Aquitaine’s B crew for his unit’s performance during anti-submarine operations in the North Atlantic in 2025.
Usually awarded to American units, this quarterly prize, created in 1975, has once again been awarded to a French unit. It thus marks the recognition of French know-how and the high degree of trust placed in us by our American partners in a field that is particularly strategic for the security of allied operations in the Atlantic.
The ultra-high-performance sensors and information processing, analysis and intervention capabilities of the FREMM and Caïman Marine helicopters make them formidable submarine hunters.
Well-trained and skilled, the Navy crews have acquired the expertise to deploy them in operations. They are now recognised as among the best in the world.
This is the fourth time that a French FREMM frigate has won this award.
In 1991, the 21F flotilla, stationed at the Nîmes-Garons naval air base and flying Atlantique maritime patrol aircraft, won the award.
In 2020, French CTFs 470 and 473 and French frigates FS Bretagne (D-655) and FS Auvergne (D-654) received this recognition.
In 2021, Admiral Eugene Black, then commander of the US Sixth Fleet based in Naples, rewarded three French units, including two FREMM frigates: CTF 473, FS Provence and FS Languedoc.
In 2022, Vice Admiral Wing Ishee (C6F) awarded the distinction to Vice Admiral Boidevezi, commander of Task Force 470 (CTF 470), and the FREMM frigates Auvergne, Bretagne, Languedoc and Provence for their missions in the Mediterranean Sea in coordination with the United States Navy.
Naval News understands that the Americans’ choice to acquire the Thales CAPTAS-4 variable depth sonar system (fitted to all French FREMM frigates) for the Constellation-class frigate programme (now cancelled) was directly linked to feedback from the US European Navy on the performance of this sonar.
Source: here
10 additional French warships to be sent to the Middle East
The French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle and its escort (including Italian and Spanish frigates) are transiting to the Eastern Mediterranean. Photo from French Navy Chief Nicolas Vaujour on LinkedIn.
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Announced by French President Emmanuel Macron on 9 March, 10 more French warships are being deployed to the Middle East theatre in the context of the ongoing war with Iran.
The 10 additional ships will be tasked with escorting commercial vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil supplies transiting to and from the Gulf states, which are responsible for supplying a significant portion of the world’s total oil demand. The deployment also coincides with Iranian attacks on NATO and EU partners at RAF Akrotiki air base in Cyprus and the interception of Iranian ballistic missiles over Turkey by the US Navy.
“Air and naval power is being deployed to ensure the security and protection of our citizens and European citizens, to support our regional partners in their defence, and to guarantee freedom of navigation and maritime security.” – Nicolas Vaujour, Chief of Staff of the French Navy on LinkedIn
The French aircraft carrier FS Charles De Gaulle (R91) and its escort have been sent to support defensive efforts in the Middle East. USNI reports that the French aircraft carrier strike group, which was observed accelerating towards the eastern Mediterranean, consists of the Horizon-class frigate Chevlier Paul (D621), Spanish Navy frigate ESPS Cristóbal Colón (F105), Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen (F805), an additional FREMM-class frigate, a fleet tanker, and an attack submarine.
The Aquitaine-class frigate Languedoc (D653) was also sent to assist in the defence of Cyprus, along with additional French air defence and counter-drone forces. In addition to naval resources, French Air Force Rafale aircraft participated in defensive operations over the United Arab Emirates, primarily focused on shooting down Iranian one-way attack drones.
The mission in which these 14+ French ships will participate has been declared to be “purely defensive” in nature, with only escort and counter-air operations on the table. A more limited set of missions will thus prevent these ships from participating in attacks carried out by Israeli, Emirati and American forces, but will still provide much-needed protection for commercial ships, which have almost come to a standstill in the strait. The deployment of these numerous ships marks one of the largest periods of availability in the French Navy, as editor-in-chief Xavier Vavasseur notes that the main French naval base in Toulon is almost completely empty.
A French LHD Dixmude left on 17 February 2026 for the Indo-Pacific as part of the “JEANNE D’ARC 2026” mission. The ship and its escort frigate are now off the coast of Somalia, participating in ATALANTA. A Horizon-class air defence destroyer is currently participating in Operation ASPIDES in the Red Sea, while a FREMM frigate is likely still deployed near Hormuz.
Royal Air Force (RAF) F-35B Lightning II fighter aircraft seen under a hangar at RAF Akrotiki air base in Cyprus. Image: RAF.
In parallel with the French forces listed above, European countries have also begun to rapidly deploy resources to the Middle East theatre of operations to protect both European targets and territories and partner countries in the region. These resources join three groups of American aircraft carriers and land-based aircraft from the United States Air Force, the Gulf Air Forces and the Israeli Air Force.
Joining Languedoc and French forces deployed in Cyprus, the British Type-45 destroyer HMS Dragon (D35) and its air wing consisting of two Wildcat helicopters were also dispatched, leaving port early on 10 March. Defense News states that four Greek and six Turkish F-16 multi-role fighter jets were also based in Cyprus, completing a force consisting of two Greek frigates, one of which is the recently delivered HS Kimon, a French-built Frégate de Défense et d’Intervention or FDI-class frigate. In addition, the Italian Navy’s Bergamini-class FREMM frigate, ITS Martinengo, was also deployed to Cyprus. The German Baden-Württemberg-class frigate, Nordrhein-Westfalen (F223), was observed in Cyprus, but was conducting UNIFIL missions off the coast of Lebanon, and its current mission remains unclear.
Eight British Air Force Typhoon FGR4 fighter jets were also stationed in Qatar as part of the joint 12 Squadron, four of which arrived after the outbreak of the conflict with Iran. The Typhoons are accompanied by Royal Air Force F-35B Lightning II aircraft, and 6 have been deployed to RAF Akrotiki in Cyprus, one of which scored a victory over an Iranian drone in Jordanian airspace, marking the first air-to-air kill by a Lightning in British service.
Source: here