THE US, CHINA, AND TUCIDIDES’ TRAP
Cam. (rtr) Dr. Corneliu BOCAI
China’s rise over the past three decades is real and cannot be denied. I am referring primarily to its rise in the economic sphere, but also in the military sphere. China’s aspirations to become the world’s number one power are understandable, especially now that the weaknesses of the US are becoming increasingly apparent.
However, to lead or dominate the world, as the US has done and continues to do, it is not enough to do so only economically. It is very important, but not enough! You also have to do it in the social sphere (freedom of expression, free press, privatization, etc.), the cultural sphere (imposing certain symbols, language, and culture that are accepted by as many people as possible), the diplomatic sphere, the financial sphere, and the military sphere.
There are a few areas (social, cultural) where, for now, China cannot make any claims. The Chinese language is quite difficult to learn and difficult to converse in. Americans had it easy with English (or rather American English), which spread rapidly and was accepted everywhere, thanks to its ease of learning and expression. Is there any place, any country today where this language is not known? I don’t think so! I wonder, if China were to dominate the world, how would Western countries accept its “tutelage” and language? I have serious reservations that this will happen. How can you dominate the world if you cannot implement your own symbols, as the Americans did with Coca-Cola, Pepsi-Cola, hot dogs, burgers, McDonald’s, the Statue of Liberty, etc.? What symbols does China have to spread around the world? Probably the Great Wall of China, because Tiananmen Square has a bad reputation after the events of June 1989! This led me to put forward a hypothesis (I do not claim that it will be agreed upon by those who read these lines), namely that the world could return to US-China bipolarity. I argue this hypothesis with the following:
– For some time now, there has been and will continue to be competition between the US and China in economic terms, then in military terms, and almost in ideological terms, as was the case during the US-USSR bipolarity, capitalism versus communism, but also militarily.
– CHINA, as many characterize it, is a country with two systems – that is, politically – communism and economically – a market economy. So the common element between the US and CHINA would be the market economy;
– if the competition between the two countries is only economic, then it will be good for the progress of all humanity;
– In my opinion, CHINA would be better off in a bipolar relationship with the US than in a position of world leadership, because it does not yet have all the levers and capacity to do so, at least not in the coming years;
– With a bipolar relationship, they will be able to divide their spheres of influence, economically and even militarily; This is where undesirable conflict could arise, namely China not accepting US influence in the southwestern Pacific, an area that China wants to dominate, i.e., from the Sea of Japan to the South China Sea!
The question that arises is whether, in the immediate future, the US and CHINA can avoid THUCYDIDES’ TRAP, i.e., whether they can avoid war? The metaphor of the Greek general and philosopher, Thucydides, highlights the danger that lurks for the two, namely that when a rising power, such as China, rivals a hegemonic power, such as the US, the result would be war! This is what happened with Athens and Sparta in the 5th century. This is precisely what I am saying, that the TRAP, i.e. war between the two powers, could be avoided through US-CHINA bipolarity, although many military analysts, and not only them, are convinced that this conflict between the two powers will inevitably occur.
Looking at it from another point of view, Russia wants multipolarity (and is trying all kinds of games to regain its status as a great power, at least from a military point of view), but because of the war it started against Ukraine, it is being economically “demolished” by sanctions from Western countries (and not only them), making it easier for the US to take over energy issues for European countries, which are dependent on Russian gas to varying degrees. On the other hand, if CHINA (whether forced by the US or not) were to attack TAIWAN (which would harm American interests), the US could, following Russia’s example, impose economic sanctions on CHINA, thereby weakening its economy and preventing it from aspiring to world domination. However, it would be extremely difficult for the US to block CHINA in this way because there is a strong connection between the economies of the two countries, meaning that possible sanctions against CHINA would also significantly affect the US economy, which is something they do not want. Let’s not forget that China dominates the global market in IT and communications, which are leading sectors in the world economy!
Therefore, I believe that bipolarism would be preferable to unipolarism or multipolarism, as it can ensure political, economic, and military balance in the world. On the other hand, the US will not willingly hand over the “baton” of world leadership to CHINA, so it may not be able to avoid THUCYDIDES’ TRAP! Let us hope that the rationality and desire for peace of the whole world will be decisive and will overcome any desire for war on anyone’s part.
MARITIME SECURITY FORUM