Romania could be asked to shoulder a greater security task-Editorial Maritime Security Forum
Increasing the military presence of European allies in the Black Sea would demonstrate a shared determination to follow the Baltic Sea model, but this can only be done on land and in the air, which is why Romania is tasked with multiplying its naval force and, in cooperation with Bulgaria and Turkey, ensuring a stable balance in the Black Sea.
Turkey remains an important arbiter in the Black Sea region due to its geographical position and its ability to use the Montreux Convention as its main diplomatic lever. Some decisions, such as possible tighter controls on NATO and Russian shipping, could be a barga bargaining chip in negotiating political and economic advantages, not only for Turkey.
Budget and personnel cuts, together with the implication of adopting a defensive posture in the future, even abandoning the Black Sea theater of operations, send a global signal that the US is not confident in its own forces, but also that it is unable to compete with Russia and China. Instead, American competitors are being encouraged to fill the gap left behind. In this new political context in the US, is the Black Sea Security and Development Act, which is part of a broader US defense budget package, still relevant? How will it be implemented in the light of the vision of the new leadership in Washington? Or will it fade into anonymity through non-funding?
On the other hand, Moscow has the option of adopting a hybrid strategy of limited conflict escalation. Russia’s hybrid actions could include more “de facto” naval blockades by restricting vital Black Sea districts, cyber-attacks, disinformation, and more, to maintain its influence and create dissent among Black Sea littoral states.
The European Union (EU) could try to fill the “vacuum” created by reduced US intervention by increasing the number of EU security and defense projects (PESCOs) and investing in regional infrastructure.
Democratic countries in the Black Sea region, such as Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Ukraine and Moldova, need to find mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation on common challenges (energy security, transport infrastructure, maritime conflict prevention, even military forms).
Diplomatic channels are crucial in situations of geopolitical instability. The implementation of the Montreux Convention remains an important tool for Turkey, and the US, through its new administration, may choose to negotiate directly with countries in the region, also taking into account that not only the Black Sea littoral countries are of regional interest.
Even if the US administration’s approach is rather transactional, NATO countries in the EU must show solidarity and find common ground to counter Russian influence and instability in the wider Black Sea region.
If we are talking about a strategic plan for the security of the Black Sea, we need a coherent regional strategy to deal with potential crises. This means joint exercises, modernization of naval forces and rapid response measures against hybrid threats. Romania and Bulgaria could create a regional framework under the umbrella of cooperation with the EU and NATO, including Turkey, Ukraine and even the Republic of Moldova.
But maybe first we will need to have an updated national strategy for the new conditions!
Romania does not prove to have a clear Black Sea policy
In the new context of the post-Munich Munich Conference, but also of the individual discussions in Washington, the Black Sea region has become a region where the interests of the major powers and regional states intersect more intensely than ever. The Munich Conference initiated an important debate on the future of European and transatlantic security, but the Trump administration has added to the uncertainty with its unconventional policies.
In this context, the importance of cooperation, agile diplomacy and continued security investments to maintain stability and protect the interests of relevant regional actors is emphasized.
Romania does not seem to have a clear policy in the Black Sea region, despite various diplomatic contacts, including with the Turkish side. Both countries constantly emphasize the good cooperation between Romania and Turkey, in the spirit of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Last year, a high-level strategic cooperation summit between Romania and Turkey took place for the first time and it should be noted that this format has the potential to strengthen bilateral, regional and NATO dialog.
Bucharest has consistently emphasized the good cooperation between Romania and Turkey in ensuring security in the Black Sea region, including Turkey’s participation in last year’s NATO air policing mission in Romania. Government sources in Bucharest have also underlined the importance of the operationalization of the Black Sea Mine Action Task Force, which involves Romania, Turkey and Bulgaria. This trilateral cooperation helps to ensure maritime security in the Black Sea, but more is needed.
The economic dimension is very important in any cooperation and the Republic of Turkey is one of Romania’s main trading partners. Turkish officials recently underlined the need to strengthen cooperation in areas of strategic interest from a bilateral and regional perspective. They cited the energy, transport and defense industries as examples.
Trump said the Russia-Ukraine war is coming to an end as he meets with Macron, Keir Starmer, and Frederich Merz
President Donald Trump said he hopes Russia’s war in Ukraine is coming to an end as he met with French President Emmanuel Macron on the third anniversary of the invasion on Monday.
Trump, in wide-ranging comments about the state of the conflict, said he was counting on Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine to keep the peace. He also expressed hope that the conflict could end within weeks and that Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski will soon come to the US to sign an agreement giving the US access to Ukraine’s critical minerals to help repay some of the $180 billion in US aid that has been sent to Kiev since the war began.
“We seem to be getting very close,” Trump told reporters at the start of his bilateral meeting with Macron. He added that Zelensky could visit Washington this week or next to sign the deal giving the US privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources.
The first agreement proposed by Washington was a memorandum of understanding to cede half of Ukraine’s natural resources (oil, natural gas, uranium, lithium and other rare minerals (so-called “rare earths”)) to the United States, which US President Donald Trump sees as a form of compensation to the US for helping Ukraine in its war with Russia. This is seen as a form of compensation to the US for helping Ukraine in its war with Russia.
The deal with Washington on Ukraine’s rare minerals deal, which will improve relations with the Trump administration, will pave the way for long-term US engagement on security. Ukrainian officials say the Kiev government is now ready to sign the agreement on the joint development of the country’s mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for the right to $500 billion in potential revenues from resource exploitation.
Although the proposed text does not contain explicit security guarantees, Ukrainian officials say they negotiated much more favorable terms and described the deal as a way to broaden the relationship with the US to strengthen Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war.
Meanwhile, in a special session to mark three years since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, a resolution designed by the legislature’s leadership as a symbolic show of support for President Zelenski, whose legitimacy is under attack from Russia and more recently the United States, failed to gain enough support to pass in the Verkhovna Rada on Monday. Information published on the Digi24.ro website may, in accordance with applicable law, be reproduced in 120 characters only.
Trump and Macron attended a virtual meeting on Monday with other Group of Seven leaders to discuss the war.
The talks come at a time of deep uncertainty about the future of transatlantic relations, with Trump transforming US foreign policy and effectively removing European leadership as he seeks to bring a quick end to the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine is also seeking future security guarantees as part of any deal. However, Trump has not said whether the deal will include American security guarantees.
The anniversary – and the talks – come at an unnerving time for much of Europe, which is witnessing a dramatic shift in US foreign policy with Trump’s return to power.
Trump has also demanded territories – Greenland, Canada, Gaza and the Panama Canal – as well as precious rare-earth minerals from Ukraine. A little over a month into his second term, the “America First” president has cast a huge shadow over what veteran US diplomats and former government officials considered the reassuring presence of stability and the continuation of America’s global hegemony.
Macron told a joint news conference with Trump after their meeting that their talks had been productive and acknowledged that European nations must do more to strengthen defense on the continent. But Macron also warned against capitulating to Russia.
“This peace must not mean a capitulation to Ukraine,” Macron said. “It must not mean a ceasefire without guarantees. This peace must allow Ukrainian sovereignty.”
Putin said Monday that he did not discuss in detail the resolution of the Ukraine conflict with Trump or the Russian and US negotiating teams when they met in Saudi Arabia last week. Putin also said Russia does not rule out European countries participating in a peace deal.
Despite some hiccups, the United States’ military, economic and moral power dominated the post-World War II era, especially after the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. All of this, some fear, could be lost if Trump continues his policies and the US abandons the principles under which the United Nations and numerous other international bodies were founded.
What Romania should do
Against the backdrop of internal political instability in Romania generated by the existence of an interim president, the anti-government motion, as well as the growing sovereignist opposition, it is very difficult to adopt a diplomatic attitude in line with national interests, one might say out of step with current conditions.
All the more reason for wide-ranging discussions and clarifications to resolve this situation of internal political crisis, on top of which, unfortunately, a fragile economic situation has been superimposed, as well as a security crisis, despite government assurances. Romania is at a difficult moment, which must be managed with a great deal of political maturity, but also with the broad support of the population.
We believe that in these difficult times, appropriate measures need to be implemented. Among these, against the backdrop of the forecast increase in defense funds to 3%, perhaps even above this percentage, Romania should, among other things, unblock the programs to equip the naval forces, as these are the only ones which can make a decisive contribution to deterring possible acts of war or hybrid acts in the Black Sea.
Maritime Security Forum