SOME REFLECTIONS ON STRATEGIC CHANGES IN THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE MARITIME DOMAIN. CONCLUSIONS FOR ROMANIA-Author: Cdor (ret.) prof. univ. prof. univ. PhD Ioan CRACIUN
Article endorsed by the MARITIME SECURITY FORUM
In the context of contemporary geopolitical transformations and the realignment of the poles of power, the maritime domain is facing significant challenges, influenced by factors such as regional tensions, technological developments or climate change. These dynamics have a direct impact on maritime security and the maritime economy, requiring strategic adaptations on the part of coastal states.For Romania, strategically situated on the Black Sea, these changes generate both risks and opportunities. The presence of naval mines, amplified by regional conflicts, is a persistent threat to navigation and maritime trade. At the same time, projects such as Neptun Deep highlight the potential to turn the country into a net exporter of gas, strengthening regional energy security. In order to navigate effectively in this complex environment, Romania needs to adopt an integrated maritime strategy, focused on modernizing port infrastructure, strengthening security capacities and promoting international cooperation. In this way the country can capitalize on its geostrategic advantages and contribute to the stability and prosperity of the Black Sea region.
Contemporary world – a changing mix
While the extent to which today’s world is multipolar is debatable, the fact that the world is becoming more multipolar by the day has become an undeniable reality. Power seems to be increasingly divided among a growing number of actors who have the capacity to influence key issues of global importance. And this is visible not only in the continuing shift in the balance of material power, but also in the fact that the world is also moving towards ideological polarization. According to the authors of the Munich Security Report 2025, published in February 2025, the political and economic liberalism that “shaped the unipolar post-Cold War period ” is now threatened by “ the rise of nationalist populism in many liberal democracies”. And this is also the case in Romania, as our country is in danger of losing its democratic path and wandering into a multipolar world if it does not know how to choose the right way out of the ideological bifurcation in which it finds itself.
Therefore, the material power dynamics and ideological evolution of the contemporary world have led analysts in the field to divide their opinions when characterizing the international system as unipolar, bipolar, multipolar or even non-polar and consequently to promote multiple, often competing, models of global order and security. However, views of an increasingly multipolar international system, with major powers such as the United States, China, Russia and the European Union vying for influence in different regions, seem to dominate. But even so, predictions of the evolution of international relations towards a multipolar system create uncertainty and different perceptions. In an optimistic view, a world with multiple poles of power creates opportunities for more inclusive global governance, while in a pessimistic perception the risks of conflict increase and the chances of effective international cooperation decrease. Thus this polarization of perceptions of a future multipolar world makes it increasingly difficult to peacefully adapt the existing order to the envisaged one. It will not be easy to avoid a new arms race and, as a consequence, violent conflicts within and between states or to contain common threats such as climate change, pandemics, terrorism and cyber security. In addition, technological advances, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G and cybersecurity, will intensify competition between major powers, and this can have both alliance-building effects and risks of fragmentation of global markets and trade tensions. Changes and adaptations in global governance will therefore be needed, and multilateral institutions will have to adapt to the new geopolitical realities. In some cases, mechanisms for international cooperation will need to be reinvented to respond more effectively to global challenges, while in others, fragmentation may become a reality as states prefer to align themselves into regional groupings or interest blocs.
These concerns prompted world leaders at last September’s United Nations Summit of the Future to adopt a Pact for the Future , which includes a global digital compact and a declaration on future generations. The Pact covers a wide range of themes, including peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and transforming global governance.
But any effort to reform the existing order in a way that responds to the demands of multipolarity, and remains useful for the international community as a whole, will depend on how the major powers define their own interests and strategies to advance them. However, the question arises, in this situation, what can smaller states, such as Romania, do? Our country, as a smaller state, lives with a certain hope that the status quo can be maintained and that its interests, defined in a broader sense, can still be successfully promoted. But in order not to run the risk of becoming yesterday’s defender of the world, Romania will have to strengthen all the alliances and partnerships of which it is a part, first and foremost the strategic partnership with the USA, launched in Bucharest in 1997, which was conceived and for a time functioned as an important guarantee of Romania’s security. Romania must also strengthen its Euro-Atlantic position within NATO and the European Union.
On the other hand, Romania must realize that the promotion of a successful foreign policy can be hampered by the domestic policies that accompany it. In addition, internal polarization and alienation from Western values can be a major obstacle. Thus, Romania’s place and role in the future more or less multipolar international system will depend on the policy choices it will make both internally and in terms of its external orientations.
Reflections on the geopolitical evolution of the contemporary world
Geopolitics plays a key role in shaping the international scene and influencing global affairs. It involves the study of the relationship between geography, power and politics, encompassing the interactions of states, regions and international actors in a spatial context. Geopolitics is therefore central to understanding the dynamics that drive international relations and shape the distribution of power in the world. Geopolitics explores how geography and political factors connect to determine a nation’s strategy, interests, alliances or conflicts it might face. Furthermore, geopolitics emphasizes how geographic features such as landforms, oceans, rivers, and proximity to other nations influence the economic, military, and political capabilities of states, ultimately shaping their global influence. Understanding the significance of geopolitical factors is particularly important in times of changing global power dynamics or conflict. Therefore, given the fact that Romania’s foreign elections are also marked by these two phenomena, an understanding of contemporary geopolitical developments is extremely important. Among the main characteristics of this evolution , multipolarity occupies a central place. Indeed, global power is no longer concentrated in a single center (as was the unipolar period of the US after the Cold War), but is distributed among several powers – the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, India and other regional actors asserting their influence. Parado paradoxically, this creates an environment of both cooperation and competition simultaneously. Another factor influencing geopolitical developments is economic and technological rivalries between states. Competition for resources, markets and technological innovation, particularly between the US and China, has become a defining element of international relations. This rivalry influences not only the global economy but also the security policies and national strategy of many states. Added to this, the technological and digital impact has dramatically changed the way states exercise power and security. Cyber security, data control and the influence of social networks are critical issues shaping international relations. Secondly, the emergence of non-state actors is a catalyst for the dynamics of contemporary geopolitics. In addition to states, international organizations, multinational corporations, non-governmental organizations and even digital networks are playing an increasingly important role in shaping global and regional politics, creating new dynamics in the sphere of influence. Other drivers of today’s geopolitical dynamics are climate change and transnational challenges. Problems such as climate change, forced migration, pandemics and energy crises require international cooperation. These global challenges force states to work together in multilateral bodies and to redefine their security and development strategies. Last but not least, contemporary geopolitical developments are influenced by regional tensions and local conflicts. In different regions of the world, ethnic, historical and economic conflicts persist or reconfigure, influencing geopolitical stability and dynamics. These regional tensions can have widespread effects on the international order, as in the Black Sea region.
These features interconnect and influence each other, creating a complex international environment in which cooperation, as well as competition, becomes a key force in shaping the future of global relations. This is why geopolitics plays an essential role for smaller states such as Romania, influencing their security, economy and positioning on the international scene. Here are some reasons why geopolitics is particularly important for our country:
1. Strategic positioning and national security – Romania is at the crossroads of the interests of the major Western powers, Russia and China, which is why it must carefully manage its foreign relations to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Romania’s geographical location between different spheres of influence calls for a balanced foreign policy to prevent domination by a single power.
- Participation in international alliances and organizations – To enhance its security and influence, Romania needs to strengthen its position in its alliances, NATO and the EU, and to manage its strategic partnerships carefully, especially with the US. France and the United Kingdom. Through these structures, Romania can benefit from security guarantees and participate in decision-making processes that directly affect it. Romania’s accession to NATO and the EU has strengthened national security and facilitated integration into European economic and political structures, while the strategic partnership with the US has provided Romania with significant security guarantees.
- Managing relations with the major powers – Romania must manage its relations with the major powers very carefully, avoiding them becoming a confrontation ground or subject to external pressure. A well calibrated foreign policy can help maintain a balance and protect national interests.
- Capitalizing on its geostrategic position – Romania, located on the eastern border of the EU and NATO, plays a crucial role in the stability and security of the Black Sea region.
- Adapting to regional and global dynamics – Romania needs to be flexible and proactive, adapting its strategies to new geopolitical realities in order to protect and promote its national interests.
“In conclusion, for Romania, geopolitics is not just a theoretical concept, but a practical reality that directly influences its security and prosperity. A deep understanding of the geopolitical context and a well-defined external strategy are essential for a successful presence in the international arena.
Contemporary geopolitics and the impact on the maritime environment
The maritime environment provides many ecosystems that support biodiversity in coastal and open ocean habitats. Marine ecosystems provide many resources that benefit society, and a significant proportion of the world’s population is closely dependent on the ocean and coasts for their survival and well-being.
Therefore, the maritime domain is vital to the prosperity and security of a seafaring nation in times of peace as well as conflict. International policy attention on maritime affairs has focused in recent decades on maritime crime, such as piracy, illegal fishing and drug trafficking. Lately, however, threats to maritime security are less and less limited to maritime crime. In the face of the recent (re)turn to geopolitics in foreign policy, a global trend is emerging in which regional waterways serve as spaces for power projection. Indeed, state and non-state actors increasingly assert control and coercion outside of war.
Examples of this are the tensions in recent years caused by China’s operations in the South China Sea and Iran’s harassment of oil tankers in the Hurmuz Strait in 2017. More recently, the September 2022 North Stream explosions in the Baltic Sea are other examples of situations challenging international law, disrupting international trade and peaceful use of the world’s oceans and causing insecurity. For its acts of undeclared aggression Russia was expelled from the executive council of the International Maritime Organization. Other examples show how a range of non-state actors threaten the security of the maritime environment. These include al Shabaab in both the Somali terrorist version and the Mozambican militant version who use the maritime domain for illicit operations to further their economic and political agendas. In addition, the Iran-backed Houthi militia, backed by Iran, has been fighting for power in Yemen for years and has raised the level of violence to unprecedented levels, attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea since November 2023.
It appears that the way maritime threats and risks are evolving is due to changes in international relations in which geopolitics and geoeconomics are applied in certain foreign policy contexts. Thus, geopolitical and geo-economic processes play a significant role for developments in the maritime domain: the high seas – unlike sovereign territories on land – are ‘legally neutral’ spaces. This makes it possible to create a powerful political, economic and cultural message to the world through violent means, but without violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of any state. In other words, with relatively little effort a high manipulative effect can be achieved.
Current geopolitical transformations are therefore having a significant impact on the maritime domain, influencing both security and the global economy. These transformations are reflected in several distinct ways. First, these processes are leading to a reconfiguration of trade routes and navigational security. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in strategic areas such as the South China Sea or the Persian Gulf, may lead to navigation restrictions and the reorientation of trade routes. This can lead to increased transportation costs and uncertainty in supply chains. Second, these processes lead to militarization of maritime areas and territorial disputes. This means that great power rivalry translates into an increased military presence in certain disputed maritime areas, which can lead to escalations of tensions. Disputes over the delimitation of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) influence the rights to exploit marine resources such as oil, natural gas or minerals. Third, these processes have an economic and logistical impact. Geopolitical instability can affect trade flows, causing fluctuations in fuel prices and changes in shipping logistics. This translates into additional costs for transport operators and, by extension, final consumers. And last but not least, maritime challenges are leading to increased international cooperation and regulation. In the face of these challenges, States and international organizations can step up cooperation efforts to ensure the security of maritime routes. New regulations, multilateral agreements and regional initiatives will be needed to manage risks and maintain stability in the maritime domain.
In conclusion, current geopolitical developments will continue to influence the maritime domain through changes in trade routes, the militarization of key regions and the increasing importance of international collaboration to maintain security and economic stability. These dynamics will require both states and maritime operators to be adaptable and well thought out strategies to meet the new challenges.
Romania under the sign of strategic changes in the maritime sector
Given the current strategic changes in the maritime domain, Romania should adopt a set of integrated measures to strengthen its national security and exploit the economic opportunities offered by these dynamics. Among the main lines of action , the modernization of maritime infrastructure is central. Investments in modernization of ports, monitoring equipment and security systems (including digitization of maritime operations) are essential to increase the competitiveness and safety of maritime traffic. On the other hand, the strengthening of defense and security capabilities must be another main line of action to strengthen our country’s position in the context of the current geopolitical dynamics. In this respect, Romania should strengthen its presence, first and foremost in the Black Sea area, but also in other regions where we need to be alongside our partners and allies. However, in order for Romania to be able to successfully promote and defend its interests in the maritime space, it needs to acquire modern military equipment which will enable it to both identify threats and respond appropriately to them. We must also take into account the fact that we are part of the Euro-Atlantic security initiatives and in strategic partnership with the US, and we must strengthen our position within these arrangements. That is why, from this point of view, our participation in joint military exercises within NATO and the EU and close cooperation with allies in monitoring and protecting strategic maritime routes is an important aspect of enhancing our country’s ability to manage security issues in the maritime space. At the same time, the promotion of regional cooperation and strategic partnerships through intensified collaboration with regional states and international organizations is crucial for managing maritime resources and ensuring a safe and efficient flow of trade. Another important factor for our country is the technological development and digitalization of the sector. The adoption of advanced technologies (e.g. real-time monitoring systems, artificial intelligence for maritime traffic management) can significantly improve the efficiency and security of maritime operations. Last but not least, in view of the impact of climate change, the protection of the marine environment is an important aspect to which Romania must pay attention by implementing policies to preserve marine ecosystems, thus promoting sustainable development in the sector. In addition to all this, we must mention the adaptation of the legislative framework, first of all by revising and updating national regulations in order to facilitate investments and ensure a business environment favorable to the development of the maritime sector, but also by adopting new legislation which will allow, in particular, the regulation of the maritime security card. Romania needs, more than ever, a serious maritime policy and a maritime security strategy in line with the geopolitical transformations in the Black Sea region and in other regions where our national interests require it.
These measures, implemented in a coordinated manner, will help Romania to adapt to the new geopolitical realities and capitalize on the economic potential of the maritime domain, while ensuring national and regional security.
MARITIME SECURITY FORUM